Matt has THREE plays Thursday (1 CFB, 1 NFL, 1 MLB)
He is riding a SIZZLING 9-4-1 ATS (64.3%) run in CFB dating back to the start of 2010! He is ready to continue the momentum! Thursday TOP PLAY Dark Horse Dandy!
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YESTERDAY'S PICKS
Thursday, September 02, 2010
Pittsburgh U vs. Utah (NCAAF) - 8:30 PM EDT
Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/102 Pittsburgh U
Loss
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
While it is a big game for Utah, it could be even a bigger game for Pittsburgh which is favored to win the Big East Conference and is considered a darkhorse in the National Championship race. It will all revolve around the quarterback position, which is a concern going into the season, but all indications are that it will be fine. Sophomore Tino Sunseri won their battle in the spring and while he got minimal experience in his freshman year, he played well completing 10-17 passes for 114 yards and two touchdowns.
The offense revolves around the running game and that is a matchup advantage here. Dion Lewis ran for 1800 yards and 17 touchdowns as a true freshman last season and his number will be called quite often. Defensively, the Utes have a strong line and a secondary that is athletic, although not proven. Any success the Panthers have running ball will set up the passing attack and they have one of the nation’s top wide receivers in Jonathan Baldwin.
After finishing second in the league in total and scoring defense, Pittsburgh has a good nucleus to work around and at least one budding playmaker at each level. The Panthers return Greg Romeous and Jabaal Sheard to their defensive line which led the nation in sacks in 2009 with 3.69 per game. They also return both safeties their secondary which ranked 49th in passing defense, giving up 213 ypg, and also return two linebackers. It is a very physical unit and one that matches up well with the Utes physical offense.
One thing we need to look at and keep an eye on is this line. As of early in the week, the number was 2.5 in most shops and while we could have caught a 3.5 last week, we still could get some added value. Look for a +3 at a minimum and while I am not one to endorse buying points, buying a half-point could be recommended to get this key number.
Utah is just 5-14 ATS under head coach Kyle Whittingham in September games and while he is a solid coach, he has shown to come out slow. Pittsburgh meanwhile is 8-1 ATS on road grass fields over the last three years. 10* Pittsburgh Panthers
Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 10:00 PM EDT
Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6/-101 Arizona Cardinals
Win
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I played on Washington in the opening week of preseason and a lot of it was due to the coaching of new head coach Mike Shanahan who is widely known for taking winning in the preseason pretty serious. You take a look at the Broncos past history in the final week of the preseason and you see a team that went out to win. This situation this week is quite a bit different however. Starting quarterback Donovan McNabb remains out and he is questionable for Week One of the regular season as well. That means Rex Grossman, the backup for McNabb, is going to be held out of this game for precautionary reasons in case McNabb has to in fact sit out that preseason opener. That put the quarterback rotation in the hands of John Beck and Richard Bartel, a rookie out of Tarleton State. While Beck and Bartel have been told that they will roughly split the playing time, the coaches have not yet told them who will be starting the game. According to Shanahan, they won’t tell them until just before the start of the game. That along with the rotation on the other side is playing into this lien but I feel it is still not big enough. As for Arizona, the quarterback rotation is much different. There is still a battle for the starting spot between Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson so both will be seeing a decent amount of action on Thursday despite this being the final preseason game. While they are going to be put in harms way, they are going to play hard and do whatever it takes to succeed. The Redskins are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 preseason games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and they fall into a negative situation favoring the Cardinals. Play against teams that have been outrushed by their opponents by 1.5 or more ypc during the preseason. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1993. 10* Arizona Cardinals
USC vs. Hawaii (NCAAF) - 11:00 PM EDT
Free Play
Pick: Point Spread: -21.5/-103 USC
Score Not Available At This Time
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
USC is a team in disarray and after the NCAA brought the hammer down on the Trojans, this season was going to likely be a tough one. However, despite playing for nothing I think USC comes out of the gates strong as simply as a matter of pride more than anything else. The team is going to likely struggle for the next couple years more so than this year because of the loss of future scholarships. This is a statement game for USC. Hawaii was on top of the world just a couple years ago as it boasted one of the best offenses in the country while putting together a combined 23-4 record in 2006 and 2007. Head coach June Jones decided to leave after the 2007 season and it has not been the same as the Warriors have gone 13-14 in the two years since under head coach Greg McMakin. Hawaii brings back just 12 starters from last season and a lot of the rebuilding spots are key positions. The Trojans offense should start right where it left off last season. They finished 55th and 64th respectively in total offense and scoring offense and those are not typical USC rankings. However they Trojans were hit hard with injuries and were also starting a freshman at quarterback Matt Barkley. Barkley was average but again, he was just a freshman and that year of experience will be a huge benefit this season. He has an experienced line in from and a great running game behind him. Head coach Lane Kiffin brought some baggage with him but he also brought in his father Monte Kiffin to run the defense. The stop unit was average as well but the front seven will be vastly improved after a year of inexperience set them back. The secondary is an area of concern as all four starters have to be replaced. However cornerback Shareece Wright, who was academically ineligible last season, is back for his senior season and is their best cover corner. Hawaii will be more than ready for this game, especially at home but top to bottom it cannot compete with the Trojans even though the team is thin with injuries and transfers. The Trojans also fall into a solid situation that has been profitable for years. Play against home teams that allowed a 58 percent or worse completion percentage and with five offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season. This situation is 33-4 ATS (89.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Trojans are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games. 3* USC Trojans
The NCAA season kicks off on Thursday and Fargo will have you covered from day one through the BCS Championship! He starts right where he left off last season as Matt started 2010 with a bang last season by going a SIZZLING 9-4-1 ATS (64.3%)! He continues his football prowess backed by TREMENDOUS 22-6 ATS (78.6%) Team Angles! Start the year with a TOP PLAY ticket!
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT
Premium Play
Pick: Total: 9/-110 Over
Win
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
After losing the opener of the series against the Dodgers behind the near no-hitter from Hiroki Kuroda, the Phillies bounced back the last two games as the bats came back to life early and often. Philadelphia continues to keep pace with the Braves in the National League East as it is four games back thanks to wins in five of six games on this roadtrip. This is a contrarian play as the Phillies have gone ‘Under’ in 10 of their last 11 games and that leads to our value with tonight’s total. The Rockies lost a tough one last night 2-1 to drop the series with the Giants and all three of those games were low scoring. That was not much of a surprise as they have now gone ‘Under’ in 10 straight on the road and with the three-game series all staying ‘Under’ that is also providing some value here. The Rockies are 33-30-1 to the ‘Over’ at home, which is certainly no edge either way but it has been more high scoring games of late so a return home will help here. The pitching matchup signals ‘Under’ as the two have combined to go 5-1 to the ‘Under’ over each last three starts. But again, we are going contrarian. Joe Blanton has tossed three straight quality outings including his last one which was on the road. The recent form is also part of the value given to this number and his overall road success, or lack thereof, is beneficial as well. Blanton has a 6.06 ERA on the road this season with only four of his 10 starts being quality outings. The Rockies counter with Jhoulys Chacin and he has pitched well since his return from the minors. He has allowed only one run in his last 14.2 innings and all three of his starts have stayed ‘Under’. He has been a predominately ‘Under’ pitcher this season with 10 of his 14 starts going low. However, it has been six of seven on the road and only four of seven at home. We catch some solid history for an ‘Over’. The ‘Over’ is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Colorado while the Phillies have gone 9-1-1 to the ‘Over’ in Blanton’s last 11 starts with a total between 9.0 and 10.5. Also, they are 12-3-1 to the ‘Over’ in his last 16 starts against teams with a winning record. The ‘Over’ is 10-4 in Colorado’s last 14 home games. 9* Over Philadelphia Phillies/Colorado Rockies
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Premium Picks
Fargo’s **9** CFB FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS *77% ANGLES*
Matt is coming off a push with his lone premium report last night on the Panthers and is back for a Friday night special! He is ready to add to his TERRIFIC 9-4-2 ATS (64.3%) CFB run in 2010 that goes back to last season! Arizona and Toledo do battle on ESPN and this side winner is backed by OUTSTANDING 39-12 ATS (76.5%) Team Angles! Watch and Win once again with Fargo! - $35.00
Fargo’s **10** NCAA TOTAL OF THE WEEK *HIGH NOON*
Matt has not released many totals over the years but when he does, everyone knows they are MONEY! Over the last two years, he has released only NINE CFB totals in September and October and he is a STAGGERING 7-1-1 (87.5%)! He comes right out of the gate in Week 1 with his CFB Total of the Week! It starts at 12:00 ET so act now! Get the day started with a TOP PLAY! - $35.00
Fargo’s **9** NCAA RIVALRY ANNIHILATOR *88% ANGLE*
Matt is ready for another MONSTER NCAA season as he is ready to add to his TERRIFIC 9-4-1 ATS (64.3%) CFB run from the end of last season! This is one of his patented Supreme Annihilators but it is even stronger based on it being a Rivalry Blowout! Join Matt for this huge Winner backed by a SENSATIONAL 22-3 ATS (88%) Power Situation! Get all of the pertinent info inside! - $35.00
Fargo’s **10** NCAA REVENGE *BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR*
College football is upon us and no one is happier than Fargo! He enters the first Saturday of the year on a SIZZLING 9-4-1 ATS (64.3%) CFB run going back to the start of 2010! He is planning on a MASSIVE Saturday which is highlighted by a game that spells B-L-O-W-O-U-T! Join him for his Revenge BLOWOUT of the Year and CASH with ease! If you need a huge ROUT, this is it! - $35.00
Fargo’s **8** NCAA DARK HORSE DANDY **80% ANGLE**
Matt is ready to soar out of the gates as he has hit 59% of his NCAA reports through September over the last two seasons so a fast start has been commonplace! He ended last season going an OUTSTANDING 9-4-1 ATS (64.3%) in 2010! Saturday he has uncovered a great underdog spot backed by a FANTASTIC 28-7 ATS (80%) Power Situation! Do not hesitate so catch it now! - $35.00
Fargo’s **9** NCAA LATE NIGHT TV WINNER **ESPN2**
Week One ends with a bookie nightmare! Matt heads into the new season riding a POWERFUL 2010 run of 9-4-1 ATS (64.3%) and it continues! Is there a better way to end the first Saturday of college football with a Late Night TV Winner? Join Matt as he gives you his last Winner between Cincinnati and Fresno St. and you can watch on ESPN2! Tune in and WIN again with Fargo! - $35.00
Fargo’s **10** NCAA TOTALS DOMINATOR **TOP PLAY**
**SUNDAY SPECIAL** The first week of the college football season we get treated to some Sunday action and Matt has uncovered a situation where he is READY TO AMBUSH! He has given out only 9 totals in September and October the last 2 years and he is a SIZZLING 7-1-1 (87.5%)! He is unleashing a TOP PLAY and it is one you cannot pass up! Enjoy your holiday weekend with CASH! - $35.00
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The SEC has long been considered the toughest conference in football and rightfully so. It has produced the last three National Champions, Florida twice with LSU sandwiched in-between. The SEC leads all conferences in all-time titles with 17 and there will be teams looking to add to that this season and with legitimate shots in doing so. The leader of the pack is defending champion Florida who is ... read more
As strong as the Big XII South is, the North is just the opposite. There are good teams within the division no doubt but it is unlikely that any team will be able to challenge the top teams in the South as the top team in this division would finish either fourth or fifth in the other division. It looks as though it may be a two-team race in the North between Kansas and Nebraska although Colorado c ... read more
Play: Point Spread: -4.5/100 NorthWestern Pick Title:
Vanderbilt was going to struggle again this season but the Commodores are now further behind the eight-ball. The sudden retirement of head coach Bobby Johnson on July 14th put this team in a massive hole and coming off a 2-10 season, that is the last thing they heeded. Newly hired head coach Robbie Caldwell is no rookie but he was thrown into a very tough position and one that may not sort itself out until later in the season when his young team finds some chemistry. Northwestern is not without its own issues but the Wildcats are in far better shape. Replacing all of the playmakers on offense may seem like a problem but there has been a lot of depth added to this team by head coach Pat Fitzgerald that the cupboard is not bare. The Wildcats have been to a bowl game in each of the last two seasons only to lose both of them in overtime. The goals are the same again and in this game, they match up very well in strength against weakness on both sides of the ball. Success revolves around the play of the lines, both offensively and defensively, and Vanderbilt is short on both as it has to replace the entire offensive line as well as three of the four on the defensive front. On the other side, the Wildcats bring back their entire offensive line as well as half of the defensive line. The real strength for Northwestern on defense is its linebacking corps and while the weakness is going to be in the secondary with three new starters, that is not going to hurt in this matchup. Caldwell announced that his starting quarterback would be junior Larry Smith who started nine games last year before a hamstring ended his season. Smith completed just 46.7 percent of his passes last season while throwing for only four touchdowns and tossing seven interceptions. The Commodores hope to have running back Warren Norman, the SEC Freshman of the Year, playing despite having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee last week. Even if he goes, he is not 100 percent. For the Wildcats, Dan Persa saw limited action at quarterback last season but was pretty solid in the time he saw. Saturday may be his first start, but Persa is no novice to Northwestern’s spread attack. He played most of the second and third quarters of the Wildcats upset of then-No. 4 Iowa last season and threw the go-ahead touchdown pass. He ran for 67 yards on 17 attempts against Iowa and he will be a duel threat. A balanced offense will be on display. On a roster with 55 freshmen, redshirt freshmen and sophomore players, it is safe to say this is going to be a rebuilding season for Vanderbilt. On the flip side, expectations are high once again for Northwestern. The Commodores fall into a solid negative situation as well. Play against teams in the first week of the season that finished the previous year with four or more consecutive losses and overall had a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Northwestern Wildcats
College football is upon us and no one is happier than Fargo! He enters the first Saturday of the year on a SIZZLING 9-4-1 ATS (64.3%) CFB run going back to the start of 2010! He is planning on a MASSIVE Saturday which is highlighted by a game that spells B-L-O-W-O-U-T! Join him for his Revenge BLOWOUT of the Year and CASH with ease! If you need a huge ROUT, this is it!
Matt Fargo Release Times
Plays are released every morning for your benefit so you have the ability to shop around for the best lines possible.
Matt Fargo Rating System
Rating Scale
Play Rating will be displayed in each title since no one rates games the same.
**10**
This is the “BEST of the Best” …These ratings are not frequent as they are THE TOP PLAY of all TOP PLAYS released. There is nothing higher than this.
**9**
This is the “BEST of the Rest”…these plays are just a notch below the **10** Reports and narrowly missed out on “Best of the Best” status.
**8**
This is a high-tiered TOP PLAY release and these are not released very often. These are equivalent to Game of the Month selections.
**7**
This is a low-tiered TOP PLAY release and these are released less frequently than his **8** Reports. These are equivalent to Game of the Week selections.
**5**
This is a regular selection and should be played at your normal wagering level. The majority of releases as part of a big card will be based on this unit.
**3**
This is a Low Rated selection equivalent to a Free Play. All Free plays will have a rating as no ‘opinions’ are released.
Matt Fargo Money Management
All games are rated by units and it is important to stick with those units to maximize your profits in the long run.
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