Matt is coming off a SOLID 3-1 Saturday including a PERFECT 2-0 SWEEP in the NFL! FIVE NFL Winners for Sunday!
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Saturday, December 20, 2014
Utah vs. Colorado State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST
Pick: Point Spread: 4.0/-115 Colorado State Pick Title: Fargo's 10* CFB SATURDAY ENFORCER (HUGE +$40,119 IN PROFITS)
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Utah comes in as the favorite despite having the worse record mainly because the Utes reside in a stronger conference. They have played a stronger schedule than Colorado St. but it is hard to ignore the numbers as they have been outgained in nine of their last 10 games and their last five wins have come by a total of 18 points so they have been squeaking by. Colorado St. will be without its head coach Jim McElwain to has taken the job at Florida and a lot of time that can discourage a team heading into its bowl game but that won't be the case here. Offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin will serve as the interim coach and every other coach is here so it will be business as usual for the Rams. The offense will not miss a beat as they ranked 12th in the country in total offense led by quarterback Garrett Grayson, the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year with 32 touchdown passes and six interceptions and he finished second in FBS passer rating behind Oregon Heisman winner Marcus Mariota. The Utes offense averaged over 120 ypg less than Colorado St. and with both defenses pretty equal, the Rams have the edge and we are getting points on top of it. The Rams are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and the last game they were defeated by Air Force despite outgaining the Falcons by 95 yards. 10* (206) Colorado St. Rams
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST
Pick: Point Spread: 8.5/-110 Washington Redskins Pick Title: Fargo's NFL SATURDAY ULTIMATE UNDERDOG (HUGE 65% NFL RUN)
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Washington is one of four teams this week in a divisional matchup that is getting at least seven points on its home field. That is a huge amount of points in a divisional game but it is based on teams that are playing for something against teams that are not playing for something (the exception being Seattle/Arizona). The only thing left for Washington at this point is to play spoiler and what better way than to try and do it against two of its most hated rivals Philadelphia and Dallas this week and next. The Redskins have had a tough season as they have lost six straight games and sit at 3-11 overall. This includes a 1-7 record on the road but a much more respectable 2-4 record at home and this is just their third home game since October 19th. The Eagles have dropped two straight and are now in must win mode which is being taken into account with this line. As much as the Eagles do need to win, it is questionable whether or not Mark Sanchez can get it done in clutch time even though he does have experience with big games in the past. He had a good game at Dallas on Thanksgiving but his other four starts over his last five games have been pretty poor. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or less that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile the Eagles are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams being outscored by six or more ppg and 0-6 ATS in their last games off a double-digit home loss. 9* (106) Washington Redskins
San Diego Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 8:25 PM EST
Pick: Total: 41.5/-103 Over Pick Title: Fargo's 10* NFL SATURDAY TOTAL OF THE YEAR (65% NFL RUN L4W)
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Motivation plays a big role this time of year in the NFL as there are teams that are still highly motivated in trying to get into the playoffs while teams that are already eliminated are on the opposite side of that. San Diego and San Francisco respectively fall into this scenario and while the Chargers may seem like a good pick getting points, I think the motivational issues will give us an easier time with the total. Namely San Francisco and it typical strong defense may cash it in for the rest of the season knowing there is little left to play for. The 49ers defense is ranked third overall but they have struggled the last three games and there is no reason to think that won't continue here. San Diego has an average offense but after two mediocre games and with a lot on the line, I expect big improvements. The Chargers defense has slipped of late and the 49ers should be able to move the ball with Colin Kaepernick out to prove something. Two situations favor the over. First, we play the over involving home teams that matches up two teams averaging +/- 0.4 yppl differential, after gaining 250 or less total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 41-16 (71.9 percent) to the over since 1983. Second, we play the over involving teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 25-8 (75.8 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (103) San Diego Chargers/(104) San Francisco 49ers
South Alabama vs. Bowling Green (NCAAF) - 9:15 PM EST
Pick: Total: 53.0/-103 Over Pick Title: Fargo's 10* CAMELLIA BOWL TOTAL MASSACRE (+$40,119 RUN)
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Bowling Green and South Alabama enter the Camellia Bowl in not great form as the Falcons lost their last three games and the Jaguars went down in four of their last five games. There should be plenty of motivation on both sides to try and win considering Bowling Green has not won a bowl game since 2004 and South Alabama is making its first ever appearance in a bowl game. In this case, the matchup is a good one for a lot of points to be scored. Keeping opponents off the scoreboard has been a problem for Bowling Green, which surrendered over 40 points six times and is ranked 101st in the country in scoring defense, allowing 33.9 ppg. The rushing defense is especially bad and the Jaguars can take advantage as they have five players which ran the ball at least 65 times so they can bring it from a lot areas. Even though running keeps the clock moving, the can move it in big chunks and that of course will set up the passing game. On the other side, South Alabama was solid on defense up until its final two games of the season and it could be in for a long night here. Bowling Green features one of the nation's quickest offenses, averaging 29.8 ppg and 427.8 ypg and of its 43 touchdown drives, 27 took less than 120 seconds. We should see plenty of big plays and as long as we can avoid turnovers in deep enemy territory, this one should fly over the number. 10* Over (209) South Alabama Jaguars/(210) Bowling Green Falcons
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - Dec 21, 2014 8:30 PM EST
Play: Total: 35.5/-110 Over Pick Title:
These are two solid defensive teams with a lot on the line Sunday night but we are getting a very solid number to take advantage of. This is the lowest total that each team has seen this season and it is actually one of the lowest over/under numbers in the entire league this year. The solid defenses are playing into that along with the fact that Seattle has gone under the total in four straight games while Arizona has gone under the total in two straight games with none of the six games even coming close to going over. This is where the value comes into play. While the Cardinals offense has been sputtering of late, the Seahawks defense has shown signs of poor play at times even though they are playing at a high level right now. On the flip side, Seattle has been average on offense but is more than capable of putting up points. While we failed to hit the over last week with Seattle and San Francisco, the same situation favors a higher scoring game again as we play the over involving teams that has gone under the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. This situation is 25-7 (78.1 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Additionally, the over is 5-2 in the Seahawks last seven games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game while the over is 42-19 in the Cardinals last 61 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Play Over (129) Seattle Seahawks/(130) Arizona Cardinals
Matt is coming off a PERFECT 2-0 NFL SWEEP Saturday and he continues Week 16 riding a SENSATIONAL 32-16 (67%) NFL side play run! Going back further he is on a FANTASTIC +$33,645 NFL run and all records are extended on Sunday as he has FIVE Winners going today! Do not hesitate as Matt is looking forward to a PERFECT 5-0 SWEEP!
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