NFL Win Totals Betting Preview: Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are looking forward to put the past behind them. The Lions stumbled through 2019, finishing with a 3-12-1 mark, the third-worst record in football. Now in year three under head coach Matt Patricia, they will aim to improve on that record and potentially earn a trip to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

Currently, NFL odds-makers have Detroit’s over/under at 6.5 wins. We’ll take a closer look at how their offseason has played out, as well as who is looming on their schedule, before giving our official prediction.

Offseason Summary

The Lions had some money to spend and some weaknesses to address, so they wasted no time when free agency began. They started off by handing out sizable multi-year contracts to Eagles OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Patriots LB Jamie Collins, while also agreeing with Bears DT Nick Williams. A couple days later, Detroit inked Patriots DT Danny Shelton and Falcons CB Desmond Trufant to two-year deals, and also acquired another Patriot in S Duron Harmon via a trade with Patricia’s old team. Aside from signing Bears QB Chase Daniel, every other move made by Detroit was a one-year deal, highlighted by Jets CB Darryl Roberts, Bengals CB Tony McRae, Vikings S Jayron Kearse, Chiefs LB Reggie Ragland, and Packers WR Geronimo Allison.

Of course, with all those incoming players, several departures happened as well. The most-notable move was when the Lions traded their All-Pro CB Darius Slay to the Eagles in exchange for a pair of draft picks. They released a few vets near the beginning of the offseason, like DT Damon Harrison, OT Rick Wagner, and LB Devon Kennard. The latter two found homes with the Packers and Cardinals, while Harrison is still unsigned. OG Graham Glasgow was a free agent who left Detroit after four seasons to sign with the Broncos, as was DT A’Shawn Robinson, now a member of the Rams. Other notable departures include QB Jeff Driskel and P Sam Martin, both of whom joined Glasgow in Denver.

According to Pay PerHead247, Detroit found a number of players early on who should contribute right away. That group starts with Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah, who replaces the departed Slay as the team’s franchise corner. Near the beginning of round two, the Lions were able to land Georgia RB D’Andre Swift, who some considered as the draft’s top running back prospect. They also landed a pair of solid prospects in round three in Notre Dame DE Julian Okwara and Ohio State OG Jonah Jackson. Th Lions would have five more picks total, highlighted by Kentucky OG Logan Stenberg and Wisconsin WR Quintez Cephus.

2020 Schedule

Detroit plays in the NFC North, so they’ll see each of their division foes two times throughout the season. They’ll also matchup against the NFC South and AFC South, along with contests against two other last-place teams in the Cardinals and Redskins. As a whole, it’s a schedule that is tied for the fifth-most difficult in football according to the league’s strength of schedule rankings, with their opponents combining for a .525 winning percentage in 2019. Only the four AFC East teams and the 49ers have a tougher slate of games.

The Lions will be thrown into the fire of divisional games right away when the open the season hosting the Bears and then visiting the Packers. Three of their next four games are on the road in indoor or warm weather cities, with their only home game coming versus the Saints before a Week 5 bye. A home game against the Colts and road game against the Vikings highlight their pre-Thanksgiving schedule before things get very difficult. Starting with a game on turkey day versus the Texans, will then play all three of their division rivals, as well as the Titans on the road and Buccaneers at home. Their season will conclude at home against Minnesota.

Verdict

It’s important to note that the ugly record the Lions had last year was somewhat due to QB Matthew Stafford’s broken backbone in Week 9, as they ended the year with nine consecutive losses after starting the year 2-0-1. Now with Stafford back, he’ll lead an offense with Swift, stud receivers in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, as well as the promising TE T.J. Hockenson. The defense sports a very new look from year’s past, as the fresh faces will join vets like EDGE Trey Flowers and LB Jarrad Davis.

So will all this be enough to hit the over? The Lions have definitely made improvements, and there’s reason to think that their record will reflect their improvements. For one, Stafford being in the field will make a big difference. They were also just 2-6 at home and 0-6 in the NFC North, two figures that are likely to improve. So even though it will take more than doubling their win total from last season, I’m picking the Lions to go OVER 6.5 wins in 2020.

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