Sunday, December 25, 2022 Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Rams (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -3/-105 Denver Broncos Rating: 8* Mike's 8 Star NFL Ugly Pig Play of the Week (LOSS) I feel that Denver DC Ejiro Evero (former LA Rams defensive assistant - the past 5 years & with 15 years of experience) doesn't get enough credit for his pressure 3-4 defensive scheme that's highly ranked in points allowed (2nd @ 18 PPG), total yards allowed (5th @ 310 YPG) & passing yards allowed (6th @ 195 YPG). With more film on current LA QB Baker Mayfield, I don't think the Rams will improve much on their already ranked 32nd in total yards numbers (274 YPG). They've gained 1 whole yard less per play in the 2 games he's already played. He has to try & function with a patched-up offensive line In the numbers show Mayfield as well as the Rams have covered just1 of 5 games versus .333 or worst opponents @ home. Getting outgained by 100 yards or more in 5 of their past 8 is not a recipe for "W's". LA (even when healthier) has struggled in these battles with the AFC versus the number (3-10-1). An immediate distraction on deck for LA is their in-house rival, the LA Chargers. My bottom line says with RB Latavius Murray & WR Jerry Jeudy as bright spots with QB Russell Wilson due back, you have to expect a closer game by a FG or less here. However, who do you want with the points? Let's hold our nose & hope Denver HC Nathaniel Hackett has moved in the right direction as we go to So-Fi Stadium in Inglewood, CA to play the DENVER BRONCOS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my 8 Star NFL Ugly Pig Play of the Week! Saturday, December 24, 2022 Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +2.5/-105 Carolina Panthers Rating: 9* Mike's 9 Star NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) & (ML DOG WIN) Whether all of the so-called TV personalities want to admit it or not, these 5-9 SU Panthers has the more LIKELY shot @ dethroning the only 6-8 SU Buccaneers from atop the NFC South Division. Tampa Bay holds the tie-breaker over the 5-9 SU Saints by virtue of 2 head-to-head wins by a 20-10 count in New Orleans & a later 17-16 decision @ the Bucs. 5-9 SU Atlanta would also lose a tie-breaker as the Falcons lost to Brady's boys 21-15 earlier in Tampa. However, if the Panthers win here & then win @ the Bucs next week, they would be in 1st place (heading into their game with New Orleans-beat them 22-14 in their 1st meeting) since they would have swept Tampa Bay since they also won earlier 21-3 in Carolina. I feel Steve Wilks' squad is a dangerous out here since they've already gone a for-real 4-1 SU as a home underdog this campaign. Yes, HC Dan Campbell & his Lions are hot & have covered 7 straight. But these Panthers have also been over-looked by the oddsmakers going 6-2 ATS the last 8. Detroit QB Jared Goff won't be playing in the comfy confines of Ford Field here as weather is set for near 20 degrees in Carolina. My bottom line says the Lions' "D" is a BIG downgrade from what the Panthers' faced last week (Detroit's 31st in scoring defense while the Steelers were 13th). Just 2 seasons ago, the Lions were shutout 20-0 in Charlotte. After watching the pitiful display by Jets' OC Mike LaFleur last night where he was looking totally as un-prepared as his QB Zach Wilson, that Detroit 20-17 win in NY carries much less weight. There's also a matter of some key offensive line injuries for the Lions. OG Kayode Awosika is out. C Frank Ragnow is questionable with a foot injury. OG Evan Brown & OT Taylor Decker have ankle & elbow injuries. While Detroit's "D" has improved, they've compiled many O-Line issues which puts their 3-game winning streak & wild-card hopes in serious doubt. Let's go to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte to play the CAROLINA PANTHERS (buying to + 4 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML as my 9 Star NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-110 New England Patriots Rating: 9* Mike's 9 Star Proverbial Sandwich Game of the Week (WIN off the BUY) Hey, there's no denying that Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow is playing good football. However, OC Brian Callahan isn't matching wits & making 2nd-half adjustments against HC Todd Bowles (did a good job despite his offense) & his Buccaneers' "D" here. I feel LB coaches Jerod Mayo & Steve Belichick will have a solid game plan employed by the master defensive strategist of pressure in HOF HC Bill Belichick (23rd year in NE) to confuse Burrow (his 1st game versus Belichick) & limit his downfield success. The Patriots' can get to the QB ranking 5th in total defense & are 3rd in the NFL in sack rate only trailing Philadelphia & Dallas. For this one, the mushes are PILING in laying money on the Bengals based on the Patriots' past home failures against similar teams @ home where they've lost to Baltimore 37-26 & to Buffalo 24-10. However, each week carries its own set of circumstances that carry numerous outlying factors that need to be stirred in the pot. Yes, Cincinnati won a huge game @ Tampa Bay last week 34-23. Upon further examination, they were radically out-gained 396 to 237. Burrow was just 27-for-39 & good for 184 yards. How did they win then? Tom Brady & Co. turned the ball over 4 times which kind of puts a damper on getting a "W" even if your "D" is playing decent. Yes, there's a lot @ stake for Cincinnati (11-1 ATS their last 12 with that lone loss @ Cleveland 32-13) as if they win out, they will earn the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. While they're playing for that, NE is playing for their playoff lives, a totally different circumstance. My bottom line says don't think RB Rhamondre Stevenson & WR Jakobi Meyers aren't burning after watching film of their un-Belichickian & senseless lateraling @ the end of the Raiders' game instead of playing for OT. I further feel that the rubber band springs back here in a parity-laden league that Cincy still belongs to. Look for Tea Men QB Mac Jones to have success versus a banged-up Cincinnati "D" (with an all-important prime-time MNF game with Buffalo immediately on deck-creating that proverbial sandwich) that has DE Sam Hubbard out, DE Trey Hendrickson (playing through a wrist injury) & CB's Cam Taylor-Britt & Mike Hilton nursing shoulder & knee injuries. While the Bengals looked like they pulled the great escape on the road last week, the chances of doing it by double-digits again are remote. In addition, don't forget the 10-year system that says teams down by 11+ @ the half that come back to win, those teams only go 28-50 versus the number for 36% coming into this week. We're ready & rolling to high-step it into frigid Gillette Stadium in Foxborough (forecast 17 degrees) to play the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML as my 9 Star Proverbial Sandwich Game of the Week! Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -3/-115 Tennessee Titans Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Spring-Backer Play (LOSS) Hey, this won't be the first time Tennessee backup QB Malik Willis will be seeing the Texans defense. His first start in Week 8 was @ Houston in a game where they won 17-10. I'm not saying RB Derrick Henry (219 yards versus them earlier) is getting another 200 yards on the ground. What I am saying is the Titans should be able to run the ball against the 32nd-ranked rushing defense of the Texans. Yes, HC Lovie Smith has his team playing some inspired football. But their 1-12-1 SU record & 0-5 SU record before playing rival Jacksonville does raise some immediate red flags. I highly question what QB Davis Mills has left in the tank (if anything) after going tooth & nail with intra-state rival Dallas & then going into OT with AFC playoff perennial Kansas City. The Texans have given up 27+ points in their last 4 which is a sure sign of tiring. I look for the Titans to rally up to the sense or urgency since the Jaguars' win puts them just a 1/2 game behind them in the AFC South. My bottom line says Houston could only muster 161 total yards & 10 points during ideal weather conditions in Texas in meeting 1. Can we really expect a vast improvement in scoring since the weather conditions will be around a nasty 20 degrees in Nashville? The answer is a resounding "NO" as this is a key "W" the Titans MUST have since they have a home game with Dallas & a roadie @ Jacksonville to end the season. Remember, Mike Vrabel's Tennessee defense rank 3rd in the NFL in YPP (Yards Per Point) which means Willis needs to put about a 20 spot to be considered in a safe haven. Let's now look @ a Last 3 Weeks of the NFL Regular Season System. For the past 10 seasons, if you went against a team (during the last 3 weeks of a season) that scores less than 17 PPG a game, you'd win at a 33-4 SU rate & a 24-11 ATS rate. After the Houston "D" tires from being on the field, Derrick Henry will get very hard to tackle. Let's roll to the grass @ Nissan Stadium in Nashville to play the TENNESSEE TITANS (buying to + 3 1/2) & force Houston to win convincingly as my 8 Star NFL Spring-Backer Play! Thursday, December 22, 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -2/-110 New York Jets Rating: 9* Mike's AFC Playoff Classic Let-Downer Play (LOSS) Let's not over-react to the Jaguars' win over Dallas since (even though we were all over them) the matchups favored Jacksonville due to some key Cowboys' personnel being injured or out. These 2 used to tangled up in the playoffs @ this venue (24 seasons ago) when Bill Parcells' NY'ers beat Tom Coughlin's Jags 34-24 in the AFC Divisionals. For this one, the Fly Boys not only have an advantage in YPP (Yards Per Point) Margin but are a seasoned team as they've clearly played the tougher scheduled. Yes, Jags' QB Trevor Lawrence has been lights-out with a 14/1 TD/INT ratio of late. But when the weather rolls in ugly (& it is with a 90% chance of rain/snow & 15+ mph gusts), the better defensive team usually takes advantage. Coming into Week 16, HC Robert Saleh & his Jets are 3rd in total defense compared to Jacksonville (whose also 4-11-1 ATS as an away dog) who chimes in a distant 27th. What needs to be emphasized is my exhaustion theory. It has a few levels. For one, this will be HC Doug Pederson & Co.'s 4th road contest in 6 weeks. In addition, they've also scored 60 or more points in 2 consecutive weeks & goes on the road for a 3rd. To complete a trilogy, here's a 15-year old system that comes into play. If you just won SU as an underdog & also won as an away dog 2 weeks ago combined with now going on the road the 3rd week, you've come back to cover just 29% of the time (16-for-39). When examining these teams' games last week, the Jags had the right bounces in the games they still turned the ball over 3 times. New York gave up a punt return TD & 1 blown coverage saw them lose for their 3rd consecutive week. The Jets @ - 1 1/2 won a similar-lined game versus Jacksonville 26-21 last season @ this venue. Look for QB Zach Wilson to get WR Garrett Wilson involved here. NY has 4 Pro-Bowl representatives with rookie CB Sauce Gardner, DT Quinnen Williams, MLB C.J. Mosley & ST's guy Justin Hardee. Remember, both of these 2 need this game badly & NY usually hangs around habitually. My bottom line says we're taking full advantage of a warm-weather team getting exposed in the elements versus DC Jeff Ulbrich's 4-3. Let's boom to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ to play the NEW YORK JETS (buying to a key + 4 1/2) as my 9 Star AFC Playoff Classic Let-Downer Play! NOTES: Forthcoming Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL overall Record: 34-24 for yep a not too shabby 59% Last 5 Weeks: 17-8 for 68%
 

Click here to view all of Mike Handzelek 's premium picks.