Sunday, November 27, 2022 Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) 1:00 PM EST Cincinnati Bengals Premium Pick You Wager Play Title: Mike's NFL Late Steam Play Play Selected: Point Spread: -1/-110 (WIN) Rating: 8* Last-minute line movements toward the Titans is a squares' reaction to Ja'Marr Chase & Joe Mixon being out. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow (2,890 passing yards & a 22/8 TD/INT ratio) still has enough weapons along with a 11th-ranked defense (compared to Tennessee's 18th) to take this game to the wire. Even though QB Ryan Tannehill (1,685 passing yards & a 10/4 TD/INT ratio) is coming off a stellar performance, the Bengals defensive game plan is to neutralize RB Derrick Henry & force Tannehill to beat them. The Queen City Boys beat the Titans 19-16 in last year's AFC Divisional Round 7 that was despite Burrow being sacked 9 times. My bottom line says Nashville's Finest have been lucky to go 7-3 SU as their ITS (In The Stats) record sits @ a lacking 2-8. I'll take the situational advantage of the Titans traveling to Philly next week in a high-profile game between 1st place teams. Crunching the numbers zero in on a Bengals' squad being 5-1 SU outside their division & a perfect 4-0 spreadwise in the month of November. Cincy is very strong versus winning teams turning in a near-perfect 10-1 mark against the number. They have had Tennessee's number @ this venue going 4-0 ATS plus a dominating 7-1 versus the points when playing on grass. With some of his offensive players out over the last 5, Burrow & Co. still averaged 32 PPG! Here's where we'll go in this one. Making our way Nissan Stadium in Nashville, let's grab this near post timer on the CINCINNATI BENGALS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my 8 Star NFL Late Steam Play! Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) 4:05 PM EST Arizona Cardinals Premium Pick YouWager Play Title: Mike's NFL Ugly Pig Play Of The Week Play Selected: Point Spread: +3/-110 (WIN) Rating: 8* It seems like the Chargers should have the upper hand here in talent. However, they left much of their cards on the table in their tough, last-minute 30-27 home loss to intra-divisional AFC West rival Kansas City (making QB Patrick Mahomes now an insane 16-0 on the road versus his own division). Los Angeles takes it to the road immediately following that crushing loss taking with them a scoring defense (26 PPG) ranked 29th in the league & a rock-bottom 30th-ranked rushing defense (149 YPG & 5.5 YPR). While Arizona HC Kliff Kingsbury may be on the hot seat, his team has performed well in the underdog role under him going a solid 23-13 versus the number. The numbers DON'T LIE! In the past 25 seasons, road favorites who yield 5 yards per rush or more have not only gone a lacking 6-14 SU but a no-show 5-15 ATS. With HC Brandon Staley (2nd season) & the Chargers fitting neatly into this category & gasped after the Chiefs game, I think we have more than something brewing. In addition, I believe now-rested QB Kyler Murray should be ready to go off injury that gives the Cardinals offense an added dimension. My bottom line says the proverbial sandwich is in full force here as we also have Los Angeles having another divisional game on deck with the hated Raiders who were responsible for keeping them out of the AFC playoffs last year with a 35-32 last-second OT victory @ Allegiant Stadium in Nevada. I feel 2 tough prime-time losses to physical San Francisco & Kansas City puts L.A. in a tough roadie. Let's go to State Farm Stadium to not only play the ARIZONA CARDINALS (buying to + 7 1/2) but also a generous amount of pasta on the ML as my 8 Star NFL Ugly Pig Play Of The Week! Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) 8:20 PM EST Green Bay Packers Premium Pick YouWager Play Title: Mike's Sunday Night Smart Play Play Selected: Point Spread: +6.5/-105 (WIN) Rating: 9* Don't look now but the Eagles have turned the ball over 6 times the last 2 games. Their once insurmountable turnover differential lead (Philly @ + 12) over all comers has dissipated down to just 3 over Baltimore. I'm sure the WIP Angelo Cataldi Show will bring up the Eagles' 17-13 win over the Packers (Vince Lombardi's only playoff loss-went 9-1) in a post-Christmas nooner @ Franklin Field. This game may appear one-sided. But the Philadelphia offense has clearly struggled over the past 2 raising the red flag until further rectified. This is a copy cat league with blueprints laid out constantly. The facts remain Philadelphia (despite picking up DT Linval Joseph & DE Ndamukong Suh) is still missing key pieces like TE Dallas Goedert, NT Jordan Davis & CB Josh Jobe. Yes, Green Bay has lost 6 of 7 coming in. However, since they have risen to the occasion (despite their own injuries) against the Bills & Cowboys earlier, I feel getting them @ our number is the way to go. The Cheeseheads do have reliable targets like WR's Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb & the newly-found rookie North Dakota State product Christian Watson (caught 5 TD passes the past 2 weeks) to keep secondaries honest. Watson became the 1st Packers' rookie to catch multiple TD passes in consecutive games since Max McGee did it in 1964. However, the effectiveness of QB Aaron Rodgers' play action rests on the shoulders of RB's Aaron Jones & A.J. Dillon. My bottom line stresses GB is off extra rest so DC Joe Barry had enough time to install packages to frustrate Eagles' QB Jalen Hurts. Their success will be dependable on how well CB's Jaire Alexander & Rasul Douglas. This has been a road team dominated series with the dog barking 5 of its last 7. Crunching the numbers reveal the Pack being a stellar 14-6 spreadwise following a SU loss & a near-perfect 4-1 versus the number their last 5 roadies versus a team with a winning home record. Rodgers is also a take-me-back-to-the-window 7-0 SU & ATS when GB is a dog off a SU loss & playing a .700 or better winning team. On the flip side, Philly Steak N' Cheese is 0-4 ATS in the month of November, 1-4 against the number versus losing teams, 3-8 on versus the line against opponents off a Thursday game & a ticket-ripping 3-10 versus the spread their last 13 during Week 12. The linesmakers have lowered this spread to make Philadelphia a take since all 4 home wins have come by 8 or more. I'm not falling into that trap. Let's go to Lincoln Financial Field to play the GREEN BAY PACKERS (buying to + 10 1/2) as my 9 Star Sunday Night Smart Play! Thursday, November 24, 2022 Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions (NFL) - 12:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +9.5/-110 Detroit Lions Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) Yep, the overall money keeps pouring in on the more-talented Bills. My question remains, "Is it the sharp money?" There's no doubt that HC Dan Campbell has turned the key on for Detroit's success (3-13-1 LY but already 4-6 & good for 2nd place in the NFC North). He's coached the Lions to 3 consecutive victories (Green Bay & road wins @ Chicago & @ the NY Giants) which hasn't been done since 2017. Why the turn-around? Well, QB Jared Goff hasn't been sacked much (3 times the last 4 games) or thrown interceptions (1 in his last 4 games). Their top RB in Jamaal Williams is solid in becoming the 3rd RB in Lions' history (Billy Simms & Barry Sanders) to record 12+ rushing TD's in a season. The past 2 times of this series were close games with Buffalo winning 14-13 in 18' while also nipping Detroit 17-14 in 14'. I feel the situational edge goes to Detroit with the Bills traveling back home after their 31-23 win over Cleveland last week before returning to Ford Field once again. The Motor City Madmen have a realistic shot @ going an in-the-mix 7-6 (with 5 consecutive wins-did that in 16') IF they upset Buffalo & win @ home versus Jacksonville & Minnesota to conclude their 3-game homestand. Yes, Buffalo has one of the best QB's in the NFL with Josh Allen. However, he's thrown a ton of INT's (6 times the last 4 games) & he's been sacked 11 times during that same span. My bottom line says its tough to ignore the Bills' throwing 6 INT's & the Lions' "D" recording 6 INT's the past 4 games. Numbers show Detroit rises to the occasion in November ((6-0 ATS their past 6) & a perfect 5-0 ATS after rushing for 150+ yards. The Lions are 6-2 versus the number versus winning teams & have taken on the 4th-toughest schedule thus far. The Upstate New Yorkers passing "D" has been torched for 650 yards over the last 2. This series has also been ruled by the underdog the past 5 going 4-1 spreadwise. The Bills have given up over 25 PPG the last 3 while Detroit has scored around 26 PPG during that same span. Detroit's season is on the line & say they respond. Let's go to Ford Field in Michigan to play the DETROIT LIONS (buying to + 11 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML as my 9 Star NFL Public Missed Perception Play! New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +2.5/-105 New England Patriots Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Barking Out Loud Dogger (LOSS) The Patriots are the kind of team who take advantage of teams willing to give them gifts. They will use their last-second punt return for a TD against the New York Jets as a springboard heading into this inter-conference tilt. The Minnesota Vikings should get some respect @ 8-2 SU but they're actually getting out-scored by their opponents on the season. They've also been outgained by all foes by a 50.4 YPG ranking a distant 27th in that category. They've been opportunistic in the turnover differential column turning in a tied for 3rd best +7. QB Kirk Cousins & the Purple People Eaters are now facing NE's #1 scoring defense (17 PPG), 2nd in sack % (11.1%) & 4th in passing "D" (188 YPG) in the NFL in prime time. The Vikings "D" on a short week come in ranked 30th in passing defense (267 YPG) & 29th in total "D" (389 YPG). My bottom line says HC Bill Belichick has 2 straight underdog covers on the road this season covering games in Cleveland & Green Bay. Crunching the numbers reveals the Teamen being a perfect 7-0 ATS in the month of November, 3-0-1 versus the number versus teams with a winning record & 3-0-1 spreadwise when taking it to the NFL road. The Pats have ruled this series winning the last 5 SU & have gone 4-1 ATS with an average MOV (Margin Of Victory) of 16 PPG. Look for Belichick & Co. to mimic some of the Cowboys' blueprints laid fresh this past Sunday. Here's where we'll take this one. Let's jaunt into U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis to play the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (buying to + 4 1/2) with some pasta on the ML as my 8 Star NFL barking Out Loud Dogger! NOTES/POWER RANKINGS: I should have bought the Pats to + 7 1/2 when I released the play early in the week instead of just on game day. However, all teasers delivered with NE. Nevertheless, a 4-1 week has the momentum building as we head into Week 13 - still 9 weeks to go culminating with the Super Bowl on February 12th @ State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. Let's dive right into my Power Rankings where I do NOT base on sportsbook odds. They are compiled using a bevy of other factors/intangibles to get a better feel. 1) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - Yeah, they're still here! Even though the defense gave up 33 points to a struggling Packers' offense, it was evident that Philly Steak N' Cheese can flex its physicality & versatility when they're pushed. Tennessee, the NY Giants & a roadie @ Dallas await here in December. 2) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - They turned the ball over twice but still amassed 437 yards against a top 10 defense of the Rams in a 16-point win, 26-10. We'll see on Sunday if Mahomes finally beats Burrow (0-2 SU thus far). 3) MINNESOTA VIKINGS - A shaky 3rd but they just keep winning. They're 4-2 SU versus winning teams. If Detroit loses to Jacksonville Sunday, these Norsemen can pop the champagne & win the NFC North this early with a win over the New York Jets @ home. 4) BUFFALO BILLS - This team is definitely under-achieving thus far mostly do to key injuries. You can tell QB Josh Allen is affected but is trying to play through them. The biggest of those injuries has to be to OLB Von Miller (knee). Losing him could mean the "Bills' Mafia" could be again Lombardi-less after the 2nd week of February. 5) MIAMI DOLPHINS - It's going to get quite interesting for HC Mike McDaniel. Of the 6 games remaining, the Green Bay Packers on Christmas Day is the easiest team. But before that game, they have 3 straight roadies versus San Francisco, the LA Chargers & Buffalo. Can Tua Tagovailoa continue his run? 6) SAN FRANCISCO 49ers - This super-talented team takes on a Miami squad that will no doubt try to mimic what Kansas City did to SF about 5 weeks ago @ this venue. 7) DALLAS COWBOYS - This squad is building momentum! With the Colts, Texans & Jaguars immediately on deck, they should be 11-3 SU heading into a home game with Philadelphia on Christmas Eve. 8) BALTIMORE RAVENS - This team just loves to play down to its competition. We'll see which direction they'll proceed with 4 out of 6 divisional games still left. Will the real Lamar Jackson please stand up? 9) CINCINNATI BENGALS - Can Joe Burrow beat Pat Mahomes 3 times straight to start his young career? They'll certainly need a healthy & effective Ja'Marr Chase & Joe Mixon to have a shot @ reaching the Super Bowl once again in a rich AFC. 10) TENNESSEE TITANS - Why not put them higher? Because they're just 1-4 SU versus winning teams with a lone win over Washington. It's put or shut up this weekend in Philadelphia. One thing is for sure. They stand 1-3 SU if RB Derrick Henry rushes for under 85 yards. 11) NEW YORK JETS - These next 2 games @ Minnesota & then @ Buffalo will determine if Mike white has what it takes to make it in the NFL. 12) NEW YORK GIANTS - This 7-4 SU NFC 6th-seed (0-2 in their division) faces a must-win situation this week versus Washington since Philadelphia & Minnesota arrive shortly after. The Commanders & Seahawks sit just a 1/2-game back in position to move up. 13) WASHINGTON COMMANDERS - If rookie RB (out of Alabama) Brian Robinson can throw in a few more 100-yard rushing games & 6th-year vet (out of Old Dominion) QB Taylor Heinicke can streak a few wins together, HC Ron Rivera can earn his 2nd playoff berth in just 3 seasons there. 14) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - The winner by default in the NFC's worst South with a 5-6 SU record. I think Rivera would love another crack @ Tampa Bay (lost 31-23 in NFC playoffs 2 seasons ago). They can only do that by finishing 2nd in their division. I can't believe Brady's streak of being 218-0 when his team was up 7 or more with 2 minutes left crashed & burned versus Cleveland of all teams. NEAR MISSES: Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots & Seattle Seahawks. Thanks to everyone backing me who has made this a successful season thus far! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Overall Record: 21-17 for a climbing 55% NFL Record L2 Weeks: 7-3 for 70%
 

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