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Mike Handzelek's Week 9 NFL Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 7, 2019
   
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Sunday, November 03, 2019 Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) - 9:30 AM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1.5/-115 Jacksonville Jaguars Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Very Early Earlybird (LOSS) This game is a heated battle to stay close to Indianapolis for the top spot in the AFC South. The BIG intangible leaning toward Jacksonville has to be the familiarity with adapting to the Greenwich Mean Time Zone (GMT) is usually +5 hours (a 2:30 PM local time start) from their Eastern Standard Time Zone (EST) in Florida. It was +4 hours last night, but since we (USA) turned our clocks back last night, it will be 2:30 PM in London, England for the Jaguars (+5 hours) & a whopping 6 hour difference for the Texans who utilize the Central Standard Time Zone (CST) in Houston. I'm bringing all of this up because this will be the 7 consecutive season Jacksonville (3-1 SU & ATS the last 4) has made the trip & know the surface of Wembley (home of the EPL's Tottenham Hotspur) very well compared to the Texans who are making trip #1 to the United Kingdom. In the earlier matchup @ NRG Stadium in Texas, Jax HC Doug Marrone gambled & lost (13-12) when he went for the win & not the tie (Fournette stopped @ goal line) after a late TD throw by Gardner Minshew (his 1st start). If he didn't, Gardner might have been 5-2 SU heading into this one. Houston's 27-24 win over Oakland wasn't without a price last week. Besides a kick to the left eye to starting QB Deshaun Watson (16/5 TD/INT ratio), the Texans lost 9-year vet & DE J.J. Watt to a shoulder injury. In addition, OLT Laremy Tunsil injured his shoulder (listed as questionable) & might give way to 3rd-year man Roderick Johnson who has seen very limited action thus far. They'll be a matchup problem since the green Johnson or injured Tunsil will be stacked up against DE Yannick Ngakoue (18 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble) whose a force to be reckoned with AND battling for a juicier contract right now. Remember, these Jags held Houston to 13 on their home turf (they average about 27 PPG) without Ngakoue who was out with a hamstring injury. My bottom line says the Jacksonville "D" under Todd Wash knows how to dial up pressure. Rookie DE Josh Allen (7 sacks) & 12-year vet & team leader DE/DT Calais Campbell ( 4 1/2 sacks-listed as questionable) made things difficult for Watson the 1st time around & now get him on grass. How much time will Watson have to throw downfield to DeAndre Hopkins (617 receiving yards, 3 TD's) remains to be seen. The Jaguars (13th overall "D") rank 3rd in sacks with 29. The Texans just cracked the top 20 overall on defense (17 sacks) WITH Watt. I feel there should be less pressure on Minshew (13/2 TD/INT ratio) than in Game 1 that should enable him to hook up with his leading receiver in D.J. Chark, Jr. (660 receiving yards & 6 TD's). The SU win for him rests on ball control & NOT turning the ball over. Minshew is PERFECT SU @ 4-0 when putting out a no-turnover game. I look for RB Leonard Fournette to be more effective than his 47-yard output in Game 1. Here's where we'll play this one. Playing this @ the right number is just as key as playing the right pitcher in baseball. We'll gladly go to Wembley Stadium in London to play the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my 8* NFL Very Early Earlybird! Detroit Lions vs. Oakland Raiders (NFL) - 4:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -150 Oakland Raiders Rating: 8* Mike's Later Games' Game Of The Week (WIN) Don't think for a second that this game WON'T be a big deal for the City of Oakland. They haven't seen a true home game since Week 2 (7 weeks ago) in a 28-10 loss to then-healthy Kansas City. Everyone's talking about how good Detroit (3-3-1 SU) QB Matt Stafford (16/4 TD/INT ratio & a 105.3 QBR) is playing. But Oakland (3-4 SU) QB Derek Carr (11/4 TD/INT ratio & a 103.6 QBR) isn't too shabby either as his team keeps the sticks moving with a high 48.8% 3rd-down conversion rate. He'll welcome a troubled "D" that's been shredded for over 31 PPG the past 4 games. Numbers also show the Lions winning just 2 of 10 in the road dog role. Following a SU loss, the Silver N' Black have come up big covering their last 7 of 8. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs (620 rushing yards, 4 TD's, 102 receiving yards) has established himself as a premier rusher halfway through the season. My bottom line says missing star RB Kerryon Johnson (308 rushing yards & 2 TD's) will give them an un-balanced attack that gives DC Paul Guenther a better chance @ getting pressure in off the edges on Stafford. With the Raiders still under the radar @ home covering 5 of their last 6 in the Black Hole, I more than love our chances @ this venue. With the Lions' locker room being disgruntled due to trades, the defense has given up over 30 PPG over the last 3. Let's make it official as we go to the Ring-Central Coliseum in Oakland to play the OAKLAND RAIDERS as my Later Games' Game Of The Week! Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-110 Chicago Bears Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) O'h yeah, it certainly looks like an Eagles blowout. However, let's not too trigger happy like your average mush & carefully examine the facts. When Philadelphia played OUT of the division @ Buffalo, they looked pretty good as they won going away 31-13. But what happened when they played familiar Dallas the week before? Yep, an ugly 37-10 loss. Now they take on a revenge mode (Eagles beat them 16-15 in the NFC Playoffs last year) Chicago Bears team that's actually more in desperation @ 3-4 SU than Philly. Remember, despite their offensive struggles, the Monsters Of The Midway have only given up 17 points or less on 5 of their 7 contests. The BIG reason is OLB & edge-rusher Khalil Mack (team sack leader with 5 1/2) who will give OT Lane Johnson fits. The Philadelphia offensive success is usually dictated by the effectiveness of their tackles. Let's not under-estimate how important it is to have key cog OT Jason Peters (knee injury & is week-to-week) healthy. When you have WR DeSean Jackson (abdominal tear) & RB's Darren Sproles (quadriceps strain) & rookie out of Penn State Miles Sanders (shoulder injury) probable but not 100%, it's going to hamper the play-calling a bit for QB Carson Wentz (14/4 TD/INT ratio). On the flip side of the coin, I'm expecting HC Matt Nagy (who can't be that oblivious) to have a quick trigger finger if QB Mitch Trubisky isn't moving the football & go with Chase Daniel whose clearly the better QB. The Philly secondary continues to be vulnerable to the BIG play. My bottom line says DC Chuck Pagano should have his defense (who turn in an excellent 32.9% 3rd-down yield rate) juiced up & READY since they have the blueprints on the Eagles' hurry-up offense on film from the Buffalo game. The numbers clearly show how Philadelphia does as a home favorite of late where they've gone a no-show 2-8-1 ATS. In addition, the Bears played 3 games away from home this season. They won 2 & lost 1 by a FG. As long as Chi-Town K Eddy Piniero (beat out 8 kickers in the off-season) executes (12-for-12 PAT's, 12-for 15 FG's), this game should be decided by a TD or less. Are you ready? Let's mosey on over to Lincoln Financial Field in Pa. to play the CHICAGO BEARS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! NOTES: Wow! I NEVER EVER would have believed that the Bears' top brass (Chairman George H. McCaskey, President/CEO Ted Phillips & General Manager Ryan Pace) could convince (or force) the now-vulnerable HC Matt Nagy to start the 4-year, $134-million with $110-million guaranteed deal man QB Mitch Trubisky OVER the solid 2-year, $10-million with $7-million guaranteed QB Chase Daniel. That Chicago + 7 1/2 pick was predicated on that to come to fruition. What happened? Nagy succumbs to the pressure & watches from the sidelines his Mitch Trubisky-led team put up 9 total yards of offense the whole 1st half! This storied franchise are NOT playing with a sense of urgency as indicated by their record. As we move on, our bad beat on Jacksonville we didn't see for 1 GIGANTIC reason. Over the weekend & before the kick-off in London, the motivation of QB Gardner Minshew was CRUSHED when whispers through the grapevine revealed Minshew was a "lame duck" QB after the game as 1st-week starter Nick Foles will be taking over for their Week 11 game @ Indianapolis. The rest is history as Minshew stunk up a storm @ Wembley. The Later Game GOW started a new winning streak with a win on Oakland as stayed error-free & stayed hot on the ground for 171 yards & controlled the clock for 33 minutes in a 31-24 triumph over the Detroit Lions. HC Jon Gruden will have to regroup as he faces a must-win this Thursday @ home versus divisional rival -the L.A. Chargers if his 4-4 SU team wants to make a run @ an AFC post-season berth. NFL Week 10 will see 6 teams enjoy the bye week so we'll carefully plan our attack since there should be sharper numbers. Mike Handzelek's 2019 Week 9 NFL Record: 1-2 for 33% Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 18-12 for 60% -6th place out of 27 among www.VegasTopDogs.com handicappers Consult week-to-week VTD articles for accurate NFL records reflecting accurate spreads.
 


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