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Mike Handzelek's Week 10 CFB Analysis/Review/Notes/Look-Aheads


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 7, 2018
   
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Saturday, November 03, 2018 Air Force vs. Army (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-125 Air Force Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (WIN) I feel this one is sizing up to be a real dandy! Both teams' offense & defense are hard to separate by numbers. The Commander-In-Chief Trophy will go to Air Force (would be their 5th this decade) with a SU win. These 2 have 29 times since 1989 & the Falcons hold a commanding 25-4 SU advantage. The Black Knights are feeling good after last week's 37-22 win over Eastern Michigan. That pushed the Cadets to 6-2 SU & ensures them of a school-record 3rd consecutive season of bowling. Both teams have excellent ground games & know how to control the clock. Army has held the ball an incredible 40:02 per game while Air Force averages a not too shabby 34:35 per game of possession time. Both squads are ranked in the top 8 in the nation in rushing offense. HC Troy Calhoun's Fly Boys are 3-5 SU but have not lost by more than 10 this season. A win here & in 2 of their last 3 pushes the Falcons into their 4th bowl game in the past 5 seasons. They have had a very balanced offense (unlike run-heavy Army) the past 2 games running for 556 & passing for another 459. Let's look @ some other numbers that's shown some consistency. When tracking these Fly Boys, I've found the dog in all AF games has gone an incredible 22-3-1 ATS the past 26 & 5-1-1 in 18'. My bottom line looks heavily into revenge. In 17', Army showed up in Colorado Springs & left Falcon Stadium with a 21-0 blanking of Air Force (Their 1st in 25 years). However, the past 13 series meetings @ this venue has clearly showed the Falcons rule by the Hudson River going 9-4 ATS & a lights-out 11-2 SU. The dagger for us has to be how the Black Knights have done when favored versus Air Force. Today represents only the 3rd time they've been chalk in this series since 1981. So far they've gone 0-2 SU in that role. Here's where we're playing it! Let's pop up to Michie Stadium in West Point, NY to play the AIR FORCE FALCONS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my CFB Earlybird Dependable! West Virginia vs. Texas (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-110 West Virginia Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) This play is treated as the "old" 10 star as the new 10* will be reserved for Games of The Year. The mushes are RUNNING to the window to place bets on the Longhorns since they're undefeated @ home going 4-0. Keep in mind those 4 wins were against 4 teams currently @ .500 or worse! But if they would have dug DEEPER into Texas's "M.O.", they would have found the Longhorns being no-shows in November going 1-6 ATS. HC Tom Herman (2nd season) has seen his team also drop 6 of their last ATS installed as favorites. This pick builds even more merit since payback will be on the minds of the Mountaineers since Texas embarrassed them (2 costly fumbles) 28-14 last year @ Mountaineer Field in Morgantown. DC Tony Gibson's 3-4 alignment should be prepped & ready (yielded 11 TO's the last 4 & ranks in the Top 25 in scoring "D") for the Texas smash-mouth approach (232 rushing yards last meeting) that they succumbed to in that game. The big difference here is with the West Virginia offense that's ranked in the Top 10 in passing & scoring. QB Will Grier is HOT right now (1 TO the past 2) as he's thrown for 2,272 yards, has a 25/7 TD/INT ratio & is completing 70.3% of his passes. His success is largely due to his 3-headed monster group of wideouts. WR David Sills V leads the way with 37 receptions for a team-leading 529 yards & 9 TD's. WR Marcus Simms is also a member of the 500-yard club reeling in 511 yards & good f or 14.3 YPC. WR Gary Jennings is Grier's second-best, red-zone receiver whose hauled in 33 catches for 502 receiving yards. The Longhorns' "D" will be playing without key OLB Malcolm Roach whose out with a broken foot. My bottom line says these 2 play very close games as witnessed by 48-45 & 49-47 OT scores in their previous 6 meetings (3 wins a side). The Mountaineers are a proven commodity this season going a rock-solid 4-1-1 ATS against winning teams. Here's some pretty solid numbers giving up some big-time daggers. The dogs have been almost pure money in Texas games winning 12 of the last 13 ATS. Besides HC Dana Holgorsen's bunch being a solid 7-2 ATS as Big 12 Dogs of a TD or less, they also hold a super 14-3 ATS record when travelling against a team coming off a SU favorite loss AND a perfect 8-0 ATS if WVU is coming off a SU/ATS win! Are you ready? I'm ready to invade Darrel K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin to play the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (buying to a key + 3 1/2) as my Old 10 Star Now 9 Star CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Notes/Look-Aheads: I loved the way Air Force went toe-to-toe with Army on the road before getting edged by a FG. Even though, the (7-2) Black Knights shut down the Falcons' run game for the most part, Air Force did have some success in the air with 197 yards. Get ready cadets, it's almost time for Navy & a bowl bid! With Pick # 2, we saw another see-saw battle that ended up with the Mountaineers edging Texas 42-41 on a 2-point conversion. We cashed in on the + 3 1/2 with West Virginia putting up 578 total yards on the Longhorns in their backyard. CFB has been SOLID the past 3 weeks with 3 sweeps all on Saturday. We'll have a deeper card this weekend as we zero in on a surreal 70% on the season in CFB. The CFB 4-team playoff standings are looking pretty balanced. As it sits, #1 Alabama would take on #4 Michigan while #2 Clemson would play #3 Notre Dame. Here's some games this weekend that have a possibility of shaking up the post-season: Michigan @ Rutgers, T.C.U. @ West Virginia, Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma, Auburn @ Georgia, Mississippi State @ Alabama & Florida State @ Notre Dame. Check back Friday night/Saturday morning @ VegasTopDogs.com for 3-4 pivotal plays to continue our assault in CFB! Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 CFB Overall Seasonal Record 17-8 for a super 68% Last 7 CFB Plays: 7-0 for 100%
 


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