Sunday, November 06, 2022 Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -139 Las Vegas Raiders Rating: 9* Mike's AFC Mushes' Nightmare Play (LOSS) Jon Q. Public & many high-circulation tabloids are heavily buying into HC Doug Peterson's 2-6 SU Jacksonville entry since they've determined an almost equal 2-5 SU Raiders' squad have too many flaws. However, you don't play against established streaks which stresses these Jaguars have lost 5 in a row SU & lost by an average of 7 PPG versus the spread. Let's not read too much into the 24-0 loss to New Orleans last week. Las Vegas was missing WR Davante Adams & a slew of skill position players. One of those key cogs is returning for this one in TE Darren Waller. Let's remember back in 14' when these same Raiders were last shut out. They lost 52-0 to the Cardinals. They came back the next week to play San Francisco as 8 1/2-point dogs & won OUTRIGHT 24-13. The now take on a head-scratching Jacksonville team that's rushed for a whopping 192 yards a game their past 3 games & lost them all SU. One key stat to peruse over is how rare road favorites do off a shutout loss since 16'. This given situation clearly states this unique situation has produced 4 ATS winners in 4 tries. My bottom line starts with crunching the numbers. QB Trevor Lawrence (since his inception under center) has gone a career 5-19 SU & has produced 1-8 SU & ATS marks when coming off back-to-back SU & ATS defeats. Jax doesn't do well versus the AFC West either. In their last 10 spreadwise, they've come back to win just once for 10%. How do the Silver N' Black do versus the AFC South on the regular season road? They've gone a jalapeno-like 10-1 against the number in this given situation. It gets better! The Jags not only come in with a 3-14 spread mark on grass but have played down to the competition posting a no-show 1-7 versus the number against teams with a losing record. Teams after playing in London, that return with a home game without rest & is coming off a SU favorite loss they've gone a perfect 0-3 SU & ATS. Let's shift gears & look @ road teams coming off a shutout loss AND are facing an opponent coming off consecutive SU losses. This given situation the past 29 years saw teams come back to go a solid 12-6 SU & a take-me-to-the-window 15-3 ATS. Las Vegas is ANOTHER desperate team that could very easily go 6-5 SU with manageable wins over the Jaguars, Colts, Broncos & Seahawks in the upcoming weeks. Let's roll into TIAA Bank Field to play the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS as my 9 Star AFC Mushes' Nightmare Play! Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Commanders (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3/-110 Washington Commanders Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN off the buy) Just when everyone is abandoning these Commanders since Ron Rivera took over, this is the perfect time to slip right into the mold when they're @ home. Last season they were coming off 4 consecutive losses & 2-6 SU. They proceeded to upset Tom Brady & the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 29-19 as 10-point dogs in Maryland. Two seasons ago, they were coming off 5 consecutive SU losses & had a 1-5 SU record. They bounced back again @ this venue posting a convincing 25-3 domination over the Dallas Cowboys. It certainly is a good sign here with an extra-motivated QB Taylor Heinicke (the Vikes cut him in 2017) in the lineup for Carson "Looks like Prince Harry" Wentz who had finger surgery. This game clearly points @ the 4-4 SU Commanders being the most urgent or desperate team. They take on a comfy (best start since 09') 6-1 SU Vikings' squad (leading by 4 games in the loss column over the Packers & Bears in the NFC North) that has earned just 1 of those victories against a winning team. They take on an up & coming Jack Del Rio defense that's yielded a stingy 16.2 PPG over their last 4 games & 14.7 PPG the last 3. The locker room atmosphere is also high knowing 3rd-year man out of Ohio State in DE Chase Young is on the brink of returning. My bottom line says Minnesota being favored by 3 or more just doesn't make sense. Even though the Vikings are 6-1, records can be deceiving. Numbers show they've registered @ 0.5 YPP margin & that was facing the 31st-toughest schedule! Look for DC Del Rio to be dialing up pressure with multiple looks against Kirk Cousins to force him into mistakes. When you compare both defenses, Washington's is clearly better ranking 13th (yields 331 YPG) over Minnesota's which rank a distant 28th overall (384 YPG) & 29th versus the pass (276 YPG). A hobbling Minny DT Dalvin Tomlinson is a key cog not to be @ 100%. The Purple People Eaters are a lacking 3-9 versus the number after giving up 350 or more yards in their previous game. Other numbers point to a Commanders' squad that's a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 5 November games. We're ready to pull the lever for 8 Stars on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (buying to + 7 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 4:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -126 Arizona Cardinals Rating: 10* Mike's NFL Strongest Play On The Board (LOSS) Don't get me wrong! HC Pete Carroll has worked WONDERS with QB Geno Smith in recognizing HOW to use his strengths. That's clearly shown by a 72.7% completion rate & a 13/3 TD/INT ratio. RB Kenneth Walker, III is rushing the rock for over 5 YPR in leading the team with 461 rushing yards & 5 TD's. The Seahawks appear to have an edge after disposing of the Cardinals 19-9 back in Week 6 @ Lumen Field (formerly CenturyLink Field). However, this game is about matchups, situations & proper chemistries. Remember, the 5-3 ITS (In The Stats) Cardinals didn't have key cog & WR DeAndre Hopkins in the first meeting (served a 6-game suspension) & he's already raked in 22 receptions in his first 2 weeks back. In their 1st meeting, the Arizona "D" wasn't bad holding Seattle to 296 total yards (Zona' had 315 without Hopkins) & shut them down in the red zone where they finished 1-for-5. When you look @ run defenses, the Cardinals give up 110 yards which clearly trumps over Seattle which ranks 28th giving up 141 YPG. Yes, it looks like the Seahawks beat the NY Giants soundly by only looking @ the 27-13 final score. Upon further examination, they had GIGANTIC help from recovering 2 Giants' punt returns to set up 2 quick scores. The team who actually retired the number "12" jersey (symbolizing their 12th man) caught a big break since they could move up their LB's & secondary throughout since the Giants' passing game/play selection was between 0-20 yards. This won't exist today! On the flip side, Geno Smith has been sacked 10 times the past 3 games despite going 3-0 SU. My bottom line says you have to give merit to Arizona now compiling 5.4 yards a play since Hopkins' return. This comes into play since DC Clint Hurtt's "D" gives up 5.7 yards a play (which was higher before the Giants game). Crunching the numbers show the NFC West leaders are just 6-14 ATS after a SU win, 8-21 versus the number after allowing less than 15 points, 1-9 against the number after accumulating less than 90 yards in their previous game & are a perfect 0-4 speadwise when playing in the month of November. The Cardinals are the desperate team with their season on the line. Even though there's only a few points separate the teams offensively, those numbers are tainted due to Hopkins' 6-game absence. The last time @ this venue Arizona put up 42 points against a Top 10 Saints' defense 2 weeks ago. You just can't ignore the play of CB's Byron Murphy & Marco Wilson who shut down WR's DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett the 1st go-round holding them to a total of 51 yards. Let's get ready & pumped up as we go to State Farm Stadium in Glendale to play the home-standing ARIZONA CARDINALS as my 10 Star NFL Strongest Play On The Board! Monday, November 07, 2022 Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints (NFL) 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +2/-110 New Orleans Saints Rating: 8* Mike's MNF Prime Defender Play (LOSS) It was a mush-like Sunday with the big turn-around being the raiders blowing a 17-0. What is Josh McDaniels adjusting in the locker room @ halftime? Let's move on to Monday Night Football where we enjoyed dominance by the Browns last week. As we're moving forward, I'm not handing the Ravens this game solely based on them strengthening their defense by picking up OLB Roquan Smith (from the Bears), the NFL's leading tackler with 83. Even though the organization is sending a clear message that they're serious about contending for an AFC Championship & Super Bowl (in win-now mode), let's give Smith a few weeks to sink back into the 3-4 scheme of DC Mike Macdonald (1st year relieving Wink Martindale whose now DC with the NY Giants) since he thrived this season for Matt Eberflus in Chicago's 4-3 under DC Alan Williams. They take on a Saints' team that over-achieved @ home in shutting out the Raiders 24-0. New Orleans is a whole different team when minimizing turnovers. Remember, the Mardi Gras Boys are 6-2 ITS (In The Stats) compared to Baltimore whose a shocking 3-5. Their offense (currently ranked 6th in the NFL in PPG with 25 & 4th in total offense @ 395 YPG) only rushed for 111.5 rushing yards per game through 4 games. However, they've VASTLY improved their ground game the last 4 upping their rushing yards per game average to 171. They'll be facing a Ravens' "D" that's ranked 24th overall (365 YPG) & come in a distant 28th (267 YPG) against the pass. QB Andy Dalton will utilize his playmakers to the fullest using dual-threat Alvin Kamara out of the backfield & a steady dose of angry runs by TE Taysom Hill. On the flip side, not having TE Mark Andrews healthy (a key man in their blocking schemes) & RB Gus Edwards (hamstring injury) are 2 big pieces that will hurt the effectiveness of dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson whose offense barely cracks the Top 10 in yards per game @ 360). My bottom line says I like desperate teams like NO who can score @ are @ home in prime-time. They force a 3-way tie with the Buccaneers & Falcons with a "W". We're going to Caesars Superdome in Louisiana to play the LIVE DOG NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (buying to + 4 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML as my 8 Star Monday Night Football Prime Defender Play! NOTES: Week 9 went to the mushes which makes it an amazing 2 out of 3 weeks. It was tough losing on Las Vegas but gut-wrenching when New Orleans laid an egg @ home where they got man & handled @ the line of scrimmage. Let's get up & quickly move on to Week #10! POWER RANKINGS: 1) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - They have more than dominated early out-scoring teams 133-37 in the 2nd quarter & 161-72 in the first half. They break even in the 2nd half means it's going to be hard to catch them unless a team takes a lead into the locker room. Even though their schedule has been Philly Steak N' Cheesy Easy (32nd toughest), I'll give them a pass since their +15 turnover differential is heads above Buffalo's +1 & Kansas City's -1. The game where they need to play their "A+" game is on Christmas Eve when they play in Arlington versus their long-time nemesis, the Dallas Cowboys. 2) BUFFALO BILLS -- I'm not over-reacting to their loss to the New York Jets last Sunday. HC Sean McDermott knows how to shut down opposing offenses after halftime adjustments are made. They've out-scored foes 90-37 after quarter 2 which ranks them #1 in 2nd-half scoring differential. 3) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - How about QB Pat Mahomes who became the 1st signal-caller EVER (since Super Bowls were installed 57 years ago) to pass for 400+ & rush for 60+ in one game. HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid gets his players ready before & right after the half as witnessed by a + 53 differential (1st+3rd quarters combined). However, their pass defense needs a step up down the stretch. 4) DALLAS COWBOYS - They seem to be the biggest threat to Philadelphia. It will be interesting if they can get a deal done to sign WR Odell Beckham, Jr. (Can he rebound from an ACL injury he suffered @ the hands of the Bengals twice?). America's team will go as far as its defense continues to stifle teams. They have a long way to go to catch up to the few past installments of the "Doomsday Defense" when the likes of Bob Lilly, Jethro Pugh, Chuck Howley, Lee Roy Jordan, Mel Renfro (early) then Harvey Martin, Randy "The Manster" White, Ed "Too Tall" Jones, D.D. Lewis & Cliff Harris (later) raked havoc on opposing offenses. The Pokes have jetted out fast this season & are ranked #1 in 1st quarter point differential @ a +31. 5) MINNESOTA VIKINGS - Sometimes its better to be lucky than good. The Purple People Eaters will be moving up or down a few spots pending how they handle the motivated Bills & ex-Minny QB Case Keenum who could be subbing for Josh Allen. Their strong suit is adjustments made for the 2nd & 4th quarters where they've pout-scored opponents by 50 this season. 6) MIAMI DOLPHINS - Another team where the ball has bounced more than kindly their way. Facing the 4th toughest schedule & recording wins over Baltimore & Buffalo has them sit here until they prove not worthy of the billing. 7) BALTIMORE RAVENS - The sky's the limit as Baltimore became the 5th team in 57 seasons to lead by double-digits in each of their 1st 9 regular season games. HC John Harbaugh still needs to figure out quarter 4 where his team has been out-scored 90-45 thus far. 8) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - Even though they've nursed injuries to key defenders, DC DeMeco Ryans 4-3 "D" still remains the best rushing "D" & overall "D" in the NFL. HC Kyle Shanahan needs to do better in quarter 3 (-29 points overall). It remains to be seen if he can be majorly effective in the play-calling by meshing together RB Elijah Mitchell (coming off injury) & the newly-acquired Christian McCaffrey. 9) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - Have to post them here after the 49ers throttled them by 20 earlier despite Pete Carroll's squad leading the NFC West. Let's see how they handle that 5,000-mile trip to Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany for a 9:30 am ET start this weekend. 10) CINCINNATI BENGALS - Can they again go on a patented run after their bye week & advance in the AFC post-season? Besides Buffalo, they're the only other team in the NFL to out-score their opponents in every quarter. 11) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - Yes, they're in 4th place in the AFC East! However, they beat the Jets earlier & are getting healthier in the 2nd half. We'll know what they're made of in their next 3 games when they face Jets part 2, Minnesota & Buffalo. 12) NEW YORK JETS - This team should stay on the no-distraction road where they've beaten Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Green Bay & Denver -good for a perfect 4-0. We'll see if they can maintain that in the second half with roadies @ all 3 AFC East Divisional sites (New England, Buffalo & Week 18 in Miami). They're #1 in the NFL in 4th quarter point differential @ an amazing +58. plus have faced the 2nd toughest schedule this season. 13) NEW YORK GIANTS - I'm not sure how bad the defensive chemistry will be hit from the loss of defensive co-captain S Xavier McKinney for a month. What's he doing on an ATV anyway? Establishing a good passing attack is pivotal in making it to the NFC post-season where they were last seen in 2016 when Ben McAdoo's bunch with Eli Manning & Odell Beckham Jr. got blown out 38-13 @ Lambeau Field in Green Bay. 14) TENNESSEE TITANS - the AFC's biggest mystery that's 5-3 SU & went to OT (lost to KC 20-17) despite QB the Malik Willis passing stats of 5-for-16 for 57 yards. HC Mike Vrabel's prep has been excellent as far as starting fast. His Titans are a hefty +57 after the first half (only 2nd to Philadelphia) through 9 games. Just missed the Top 14: Cleveland Browns & Los Angeles Chargers Thanks & appreciation goes out to all my family, subscribers, followers, friends, Northwest/Mocanaqua/C-House/King's guys. Ok, let's bring on Week #10! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Overall Record: 11-11 for a pedestrian 50%
 

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