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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 7 Analysis/Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 23, 2019
   
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Monday, October 21, 2019 New England Patriots vs. New York Jets (NFL) - 8:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 10/-115 New York Jets Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) The knee-jerk reaction in this matchup is to always lay the points with NE & QB Tom Brady versus bad teams. Are the Jets really THAT bad? The mushes believe so. I sayeth not! As I indicated last week when we were all OVER them @ +8 versus Dallas, the playbook drastically changes & opens up when QB Sam Darnold is the signal-caller as opposed to 3rd-stringer Luke Falk. For this matchup, the Patriots have key skill position players either OUT or hurt. Not having WR's Julian Edelman (chest & rib bruises), Phillip Dorsett (hamstring) & Josh Gordon (left knee & ankle) functioning @ full capacity limits what Brady can deliver. Remember, future HOF'er Tom Terrific has thrown an INT in 3 consecutive games & has FAILED to throw a TD pass in 2 of them! That's far from the status quo. There's a matter of motivation & a statement to be made by ex-Pats player who was cut, WR Demaryius Thomas. Having ILB C.J. Mosley back from a groin injury is for a Gregg Williams' 3-4 defensive scheme to pressure Brady into shorter & more-hurried throws. Numbers support as New England turns in a shocking 1-6 SU & ATS record on Monday night IF both squads are coming off a win. Enhancing our pants further reveals "The Hoodie" (Bill Belichick) stands @ 1-5 ATS his last 6 on the road versus these Jets. My bottom lines says New York already went to the wire with Buffalo 17-16 @ this venue versus a top 3 defense (Buffalo-3rd, New England-1st). Other numbers reveal the Fly boys being a dominant 7-1-1 ATS versus teams with winning road records. These close to the halfway point games in Week 7 have seen New York ALSO turn in a profitable 6-1-2 ATS record the past 9 seasons. Remember, the Tea Men could only beat Buffalo by 6 on the road despite Bills' QB Josh Allen throwing 4 INT's. Besides their November 10th meeting with the Giants, this is the Jets' Super Bowl! Let's go to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford to play the NEW YORK JETS (BUYING TO + 11 1/2) as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Sunday, October 20, 2019 Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -120 Indianapolis Colts Rating: 8* 8* AFC South Battle For Supremacy (WIN) This is a battle of serious nature. The winner takes a momentary stronghold of 1st place in the AFC South. These teams met 3 times last season with the Colts winning the rubber match when it counted beating the Texans 21-7 @ NRG Stadium in the AFC Wild Card Round last season. The turning point of the Indianapolis franchise had to be new GM Chris Ballard (3rd season) when he fired Chuck Pagano (now in his true niche as DC with the Bears) after a 4-12 season & inserted Frank Reich last season. It paid dividends immediately as the Horseshoes tied for the division @ 10-6 before beating Houston & losing 31-13 @ KC. The mushes are giving the 4-2 SU Texans a whole lot of love this week after their 31-24 win @ KC. Upon further examination, they beat up on 2 BAD defenses as the Falcons & Chiefs have defenses ranked 26th & 28th in the NFL. They now face an Indy "D" that's ranked 16th but now have their main cog & leading tackler back in OLB Darius Leonard. Leonard led the NFL in tackles last season. My bottom line starts by emphasizing that DC Matt Eberflus knows Deshaun Watson's tendencies. He's been sacked 18 times thus far because of an offensive line with holes. In contrast, Indianapolis (3-2 SU) has been very good in the offensive trenches with QB Jacoby Brissett getting sacked just 6 times in 5 games. Let's crunch some serious numbers! The situational advantage leans BIG toward Indy's way. With a 7-1 SU their last 8 @ home, the Shoes' are off the bye & catch their opponent off back-to-back roadies. The last 10 times up against winning teams have resulted in 9 ATS wins for Indy. This fits like a glove since Houston comes in covering just 1 of their past 6 divisional roadies. The Colts are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their 3rd home game of the season as well as 7-0 ATS when both teams come in off of a road game (Indy beat KC 19-13 just 2 weeks ago). I like our chances here with the home team who controls the lifetime series lead SU @ 27-8. Remember, if the usually reliable K Adam Vinatieri doesn't miss a bunch of easy FG attempts & a PAT versus the Chargers, the Horseshoes would be 4-1 SU. Since Indianapolis continues to be under-valued (4-1 ATS this season), we'll trek to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indiana to play the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS as my 8* AFC South Battle For Supremacy Play! New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -210 Chicago Bears Rating: 8* Mike's 9* NFL Headliner Moneyliner (LOSS) The mushes will be super-quick to point out that New Orleans' backup QB Teddy Bridgewater is 4-0 SU & ATS this season as well as a career record of 27-7 ATS as a starter. Yes, NO is also 17-0 ATS in their L17 in October. That's fine & dandy. However, besides veteran & future HOF QB Drew Brees, Bridgewater will have to do WITHOUT his main dual-threat in RB Alvin Kamara (leading rusher with 373 yards, 276 receiving yards, 2 TD's). Even with Kamara, the Saints have only mustered 11 PPG versus the L.A. Rams & Jacksonville on the road. Having to face the 6th-ranked defense in the NFL & whose team sits at an opportunistic +6 in turnover ratio, it will be a tall task to avoid turnovers. Remember, the "Mardi Gras Boys" have faced 1 Top 10 defense in Dallas. That resulted in an offense that could only muster 12 points. The "Monsters Of The Midway" should be under-estimated since they already held the Minnesota offense to 6 points & Aaron Rodgers' Packers to 10 @ this venue. That Minny game includes a late Vikes' TD against the prevent. Chicago is angry & hungry after getting caught looking ahead in London when they got upset by the Raiders 24-21 just 2 weeks ago. I'm loving the extra prep time as DC Chuck Pagano had 2 weeks to analyze Bridgewater's tendencies. My bottom line says New Orleans travels to the Windy City for their second straight roadie (their 4th game away in 6 weeks) & take on Papa Bear's Finest that's been hard to solve ATS @ home turning in a window-cashing record of 17-6-1! In addition, the Chicago "D" puts their offense on the field @ a higher rate with an excellent 31.7% 3rd-down conversion rate compared to 36.8% for New Orleans. Look for Pagano to make adjustments inside the 3-4 defensive scheme to plug the middle better with OLB Khalil Mack actively involved. The Saints' bubble bursts today versus the better "D"! Let's go to Soldier Field to play the CHICAGO BEARS as my 9* NFL Headliner Moneyliner! Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 8:20 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-110 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 9* NFC East Sole Survivor Play (LOSS) It looks like the compound results of scheduling & depth of the NFC this season dictates that there may be one survivor who will make the playoffs - the champion of the NFC East. This is a tricky game. The Eagles may be in the process of finding answers on pass defense (ranks 28th) but the Cowboys have problems of their own with many skill position players on both sides of the ball (OT's Tyron Smith & La'el Collins, WR's Amani Cooper & Randall Cobb, CB's Byron Jones & Anthony Brown) either out or playing hurt. Even before or in the process of these players going down, Dallas comes up against Philly NOT having a 1st half TD the past 3 games. Who have they beat thus far? The Cowpokes have beaten Miami, Washington & the New York Giants who have a combined record of 3-14! Yes, recent history DOES show Jerry's Boys @ 3-0 SU & ATS versus Philadelphia the last 3. My bottom line says that despite the Eagles having some problems of their own, they have consistently rose to the occasion as a road dog turning in a super-solid 8-1-1 ATS the past 10. We ALSO have the coaching edge with Doug Pederson over Jason Garrett in our favor. In addition, crunching the numbers have revealed some interesting stats. Not only do home teams (Dallas) coming off of a SU favorite loss go 9-16-2 ATS versus a divisional rival, but those numbers considerable drop to 2-10-1 versus the number if their opponent won 57% of their games or less. When Philadelphia is in their 2nd game of a 3-game road trip, they've responded BIG winning 10 out of their last 11 chances. We just can't ignore an Eagles' side who already went to Lambeau with their backs against the wall & came out with an outright 7-point win (31-24) as a dog. Let's go to AT&T Stadium in Arlington to take the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (buying to + 4 1/2) as my NFC East Sole Survivor Play! Mike Handzelek's 2019 NFL Week 7 Record: 1-3 for 25% Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 12-10 for a shabby 55%
 


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