Sunday, October 16, 2022 Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 8:20 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-115 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 8* Mike's Sunday Night Prime-Time Power Play (WIN) Let's not overthink this pick. There's many things I like about Philadelphia. I like what progress HC Nick Sirianni so far just less than 2 full seasons in the City of Brotherly Love. They have an excellent offensive line AND run game that's pretty much punished each opponent through the first half of games this season. They take on a Dallas team (just 9-12 ATS as a road dog on Sunday night) that's beaten just 1 team OVER .500 (NY Giants). Kudos to Cowboys' DC Dan Quinn for a smothering 4-3 defensive scheme led by catalyst & MLB Micah Parsons (leads team with 6 sacks). However, I believe DC Jonathan Gannon's Philly "D" (4th overall & 5th against the pass) is slightly better than the "Boys from Texas" who are 7th overall & 7th against the pass. The Eagles' team also is the most opportunistic squad in the NFL with a +9 turnover differential. Even though backup QB Cooper Rush is 4-0 this season, he hasn't faced an elite defense like Philadelphia possesses. My bottom line says it's easy to separate both offenses since the Eagles have been consistent throughout (ranking 4th overall) while Dallas chimes in @ a distant 27th of 32. With WR's DeVonta Smith & A.J. Brown along with reliable TE Dallas Goedert, I feel that 3-headed coin cannot be matched on the Cowboys' side @ this present time. Look for QB Jalen Hurts to execute revenge (he's a profitable 6-4 ATS career in that role) for a 51-26 home embarrassment in Week 18 last season. I feel the home field advantage is over 3 points (rarely that high with anyone) in a place where sports has become electric since the Phillies knocked out the World Champion Braves yesterday. Let's go to Lincoln Financial Field to play the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (buying to - 2 1/2) as my 8 Star Sunday Night Prime-Time Power Play! Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +10/-110 Carolina Panthers Rating: 9* Mike's 9 Star NFL Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) The chemistry is quite different in Panthers' camp since Matt Rhule (1-11 SU & ATS his L12 plus being 11-27 SU for his career there) is now gone & has been replaced for the interim by 15 yr. vet/Defensive Passing Game Coordinator/Secondary Coach Steve Wilks. Wilks (1st game new HC's usually do well) is actually getting a clear break since QB's Baker Mayfield & Sam Darnold both appear out (Matt Corral is on the IR list) which puts the more mobile, 3rd-yr man out of Temple P.J. Walker into service. He didn't play that bad in relief his only 2 career starts where he beat the Lions 20-0 @ home in 2020 & beat the Cardinals 34-10 on the road last year. He'll be up against a banged-up Rams' defense (that ranks just 11th overall this year) who still have key DE Aaron Donald listed as questionable with a foot injury & CB Troy Hill & ILB Travin Howard both out with groin injuries. I look for Wilks to be talking closely to OC Ben McAdoo to see if he could put in more 12 personnel packages to complement Walker. On the flip side for L.A., WR Cooper Kupp is nursing a foot injury, TE Tyler Higbee has an ankle injury & both RB Cam Akers & WR Van Jefferson are out. Besides all the injuries, QB Matthew Stafford (with a makeshift offensive line) looks like he's bothered by a shoulder injury but is trying to play through it. His 5/7 TD/INT ratio & being sacked 21 times (LA ranks 31st in protection) after 5 games remains ranked toward the bottom of the league. The analytics show heavy emphasis toward Carolina who are 6-2 SU the last 8 versus the Rams as well as 8-2 ATS as non-divisional road pups. Los Angeles is just 3-7 ATS their last 10 @ home while also chiming in with a perfect 0-5 spread mark when in their 2nd of back-to-back home games. My bottom line says DC Phil Snow should be able to exploit a mismatch putting DE Brian Burns (Carolina's sack leader) up against LA's RT Rob Havenstein. The Rams come in averaging just 13 PPG over their last 3 games, have RB Darrell Henderson now the leading active rusher with a measly 138 yards (rank 32nd as a team in rushing-26th in total offense) & now take on a motivated HC in Wilks whose anxious to get another chance after failing in Arizona just 4 years ago. I further feel the "Boys from Cali" won't be highly motivated since a GIGANTIC grudge match with hated divisional rival San Francisco (lost 24-9 to them in SF 2 weeks ago) is on the agenda @ home their next game. I also love the fact Carolina is a big 5 points higher than LA in turnover differential heading in. Let's confidently go to So-Fi Stadium in Inglewood, CA to play the CAROLINA PANTHERS (buying to a strategic + 11 1/2) as my 9 Star NFL Public Missed Perception Play! NOTES/POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia jetted out to a 20-0 lead during their usual 2nd quarter blitzkrieg on all unprepared opponents. The "Fly Eagles Fly" Bunch have now out-scored opponents in stanza 2 by an incredible 112 to 27 mark throughout their first 6 games heading into the bye week. Yes, Dak Prescott could have made this a competitive game. But then how long will he need to shake off some rust? The 1st pick was going smooth with the Panthers @ + 11 1/2 being up 10-7 late in the 3rd quarter. QB P.J. Walker goes out with an injury to give way to 4th-stringer Jacob Eason. Eason goes 3-for-5 for 59 yards & throws a costly interception that opened the door for the Rams to score 3 times & get the miraculous cover in a flat spot before their 49ers showdown on deck. Well, we're moving on to Week 7 but not before releasing my Power Rankings. As "Dating Game" host Jim Lange said, "And Here They Are!" 1) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - There's no doubt that Philly is #1 right now (no they don't have the best QB in the league). No, it's not purely based on their 6-0 record. But it is because there the ONLY well-balanced AND majorly opportunistic team (lead the NFL in turnover differential @ a + 12 compared to their nearest competition on Minny & Baltimore @ a + 4!). 2) BUFFALO BILLS - This team with their top QB of the elite group in Josh Allen (if healthy) should earn a bye in the AFC post-season virtue of their 24-20 road victory @ Arrowhead. Justice was served after a blatant, no-guts, no-call for a DT Chris Jones illegal trip-sack on Allen in the 4th-quarter that could have doomed the Bills @ Arrowhead once again. Nevertheless, that Miami loss has them here for the present time even though the wouldn't be a dog against anyone in the NFL on a neutral field. 3) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - While QB Pat Mahomes' late INT sealed their fate Sunday night, we're still waiting what week 2nd tier RB Isiah Pacheco (another slightly under 6' speedster whose a rookie out of Rutgers) is unleashed since he almost has had similar success (about 5 YPC) as their leading rusher in the 5'8" Clyde Edwards-Hilaire. 4) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - This team may be vastly under-achieving leaders by tie-breaker of the NFC West @ 3-3 SU (losing to Atlanta) but it's more due to a cluster of key injuries. When the team replenishes, they should be right near the top of the NFC. Don't under-estimate the talents of their GM John Lynch. KC awaits SF @ Levi's Stadium in a Sunday later game. 5) MINNESOTA VIKINGS - Their the opposite of SF as they're the best over-achievers of the NFL @ 5-1 SU (have a bye this week) & leaders of the old Black N' Blue NFC North. They rank 20th on offense & 26th on defense. We'll certainly find out what they're made of when visiting Buffalo in 3 weeks. 6) DALLAS COWBOYS - This would be better if not for a sputtering offense (rank 27th out of 32). However, their stout 4-3 defensive scheme employed by DC Dan Quinn. MLB Micah Parsons is dangerous when lined up @ the Edge Rusher position. How much does the chemistry change with Dak Prescott now back? Detroit awaits! 7) NEW YORK GIANTS - This team has earned it @ 5-1 SU by virtue of overcoming 3 "3-D's" as in double-digit deficits. They have 2 winnable road games with Jacksonville & Seattle before their bye week in 3 weeks. However, their 25th-ranked offense must turn it up a few notches through the air if they want to sustain a playoff berth. 8) BALTIMORE RAVENS - Here's the 2nd best under-achieving team of the NFL that's shot itself in the foot (hint to John Harbaugh & his decision-making). Remember, they've blown 3 "DDL's" as in double-digit leads to Miami, Buffalo & the NY Giants. Their 3-3 SU record is still good enough to be AFC North leaders by tie-breaker over Cincinnati. 9) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - A dangerous pick for the Top 10 but their fate is up to HC Bill Belichick's decision on who survives his QB roulette of Bailey Zappe & Mac Jones. 10) CINCINNATI BENGALS - This team needs to immediately up their running game for better play-action opportunities. The offense ranks a low 21st & their opponent this week (the Atlanta Falcons) has out-rushed them 991 to 534 on the season. Luckily, ex-Bayou Bengal Joe Burrow faces Atlanta's 31st-ranked pass defense. 11) NEW YORK JETS - This team has turned around a 1-2 season abruptly! How? They've re-inserted QB Zach Wilson (3-0 SU since coming back) off the injured list. OC Mike LaFleur has figured out how to use Wilson less through the air & re-establish a potent running game (now averaging 50 yards more per game @ 137.3 YPG the past 3) featuring their RB's led by dynamic rookie (runner/receiver/blocker) out of Iowa State in Breece Hall (5.1 YPC) & Michael Carter (3.8 YPC). They have 2 winnable games @ Denver & home versus New England before their bye week. 12) GREEN BAY PACKERS - Until QB Aaron Rodgers figures out how to co-exist without departed OC Nathaniel Hackett (was 39-10 with GB but now HC @ Denver) & with new OC Adam Stenavich (promoted from O-Line Coach/Run Game Coordinator) plus QB Coach/23-year vet Tom Clements, the Cheeseheads could miss the playoffs like they did under Mike McCarthy in back-to-back seasons (2017-18). 13) TAMPA BAY BUCANEERS - How does an O'Line keep in sync if their QB & leader takes Wednesday off AND also misses additional time to attend Patriots' owner Robert Kraft's wedding? The answer is -- they don't! The offense responds by going to Pittsburgh to put up a measly 18 points on the scoreboard against the Steelers' 29th-ranked defense (30th versus the pass). Fortunately, hapless Carolina looms ahead & their softer schedule has their toughest remaining game @ San Francisco in Week 14 on December 11th. 14) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS - Just edged out Miami for this spot, they've ridden the arm of Justin Herbert to a 4-2 SU record & the leg of K Dustin Hopkins to some ugly wins over Houston, Cleveland & Denver the past 3 weeks. Their 4th-ranked offense MUST stay healthy for them to sustain one of the 7 AFC playoff berths finishing @ about 10-7. Thanks to all my subscribers & friends everywhere for making this another successful NFL season. Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Overall Record: 7-4 for a transitioning 64%
 

Click here to view all of Mike Handzelek 's premium picks.