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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 6 Analysis/Review/Notes/Look-Aheads


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 19, 2018
   
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Sunday, October 14, 2018 Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Redskins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1.5/-110 Washington Redskins Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) Guys, the Redskins aren't as bad as you saw on Prime Time Monday. How many NFL teams (Weeks 1 thru 5) have faced the Saints with their 1-2 punch (Mark Ingram-Alvin Kamara) 100% healthy? The answer is 1 - the Washington Redskins. Sorry, but we're giving DC Greg Manusky (now in his 2nd year & will be pretty familiar going up against OC Norv Turner here) a pass on last week. I think we saw their TRUE "D" 2 weeks @ this venue when they humbled the Packers 31-17. This season's rendition of the Skins' 3-4 alignment is excellent against the run. The KEY here is the Washington O-Line slowing down Christian McCaffrey. Doing this takes Cam "The Glam" Newton out of his comfort zone & forces him to look into tight spots. The Panthers seem to be on an upswing after coming off their bye week & edging the Giants 33-31 last week on Graham Gano's miraculous record-tying 63-yard FG. That score says it all. DC Eric Washington's 4-3 struggled against an offense that previously hadn't seen an offensive output of 30 or more points in 3 seasons! Remember Julius Peppers? The Carolina DLE & sack specialist with 17 years of experience doesn't have 1 this season. The anchor of this defense MLB Luke Kuechly has just 1 sack. They now face a QB with mobility (moves well in the pocket) in Alex Smith. Smith is well-schooled (with Andy Reid in KC) to run HC Jay Gruden's West Coast systems & RB's Chris Thompson (4.3 yards per rush, 200 yards in receptions, 1 TD) & the rejuvenated Adrian Peterson (242 yards rushing, 4 yards per rush, 3 TD's, 19.4 yards per reception) & TE Jordan Reed (12.6 yards per catch) are all thriving with Smith. I'm looking for Washington to have continued success (have won & covered 4 out of the last 5 in Landover against a Panthers' squad (with a 26th-ranked "D") that's winless in their last 4 away from Bank Of America Stadium. My bottom line says Washington is eager to erase last week up against a team in which they'll have triple revenge. Early numbers tell us that Carolina is giving up 31 PPG & now face a defense giving up less than 20 @ home. Jay Gruden must be pleasing owner Dan Snyder since he's now the ONLY HC to reach 5 years during Snyder's first 20 seasons running the Skins'. Let's trek to FedEx Field in Landover to play the WASHINGTON REDSKINS (buying to our line + 3 1/2 @ 5dimes) as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Seattle Seahawks vs. Oakland Raiders (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -140 Seattle Seahawks Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (WIN) This game was supposed to take place in Tottenham. However, due to delays in construction, it was moved to the traditional Wembley Stadium. HC Pete Carroll has taken some big time heat for another slow start for the Seahawks @ 2-3 SU. When you put their schedule under a microscope, they had to travel to Denver & upstart Chicago (Seattle has many players out that week) before going to the wire with the current Super Bowl favorite L.A.. So where does Oakland fit into this equation? I categorize them into the Dallas's & Arizona's that Seattle beat in weeks 3 & 4. They now take on a Raiders' team in flux under $10 million dollar a season HC Jon Gruden. If anyone watched the Cleveland @ Oakland game 2 weeks ago, then they know that officials clearly blew a reversal call that took away a Browns' victory & gave the Silver N' Black their only win of the season. So how do you back a team making a 8-hour time zone trek east that realistically is 0-5 SU? QB Derek Carr now has a makeshift offensive line playing with many 2nd-teamers after the team was decimated with injuries. I feel Carr (currently has a 7/8 TD/INT ratio) has taken TOO MUCH on his shoulders due to this & forces the ball into tight spots frequently. In 5 games, he's already thrown 3 INT's in the end zone. Remember, this team has won just 3 times the past 15 tries "Away From The Bay"! My bottom line says look for the Seahawks to control the time of possession as well as the line of scrimmage. They've rushed for a nifty 261 yards the past 2 weeks & that's just what the doctor ordered since the Wembley turf always favors the BEST team in the trenches. Seattle QB Russell Wilson can run if given a lane versus Oakland's bottom 4 defense. He's also quietly posted a not too shabby 10/3 TD/INT ratio heading in. Gruden's boys have struggled to defend the pass down field & come in with just 3 INT's. The dagger for us has to be in the name of Seahawks' DC Ken Norton Jr.. There's NO EXCUSE for Wilson to fall anything short of picking apart the Raiders' 30th-ranked "D"! Norton (his "D" this season is ranked 13th & has 9 INT's & 9 sacks) knows their tendencies since he spent the past 3 seasons on the OAKLAND sidelines as DC. He also should be able to neutralize RB Marshawn Lynch & what the Raiders do best. Let's crunch some serious numbers! Let's start with HC Jon Gruden. Gruden currently sits a perfect 0-6 SU & ATS when travelling up against NFC West competition. Adding to our cause finds the favorite (in games overseas) @ a lights-out 15-4 SU & a convincing 8-2 ATS when coming off a spread cover the previous week. Even though this is the 1st trip near Buckingham Palace for Seattle, Oakland failed miserable in their lone trip losing to Miami 38-14 in 14'. Pack your bags for Heathrow as we get set to invade Wembley Stadium in London to play the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS as my NFL Earlybird Dependable! Be back for a possible play Sunday by 11 AM. NOTES/LOOK-AHEADS: Even though we hold steady @ a surreal 91% on the NFL season, don't think its been an easy ride. There's been MORE than a few upsets along the way. Thus far, Sunday's been the day where I've seen better line value than the Thursday or Monday night games. This past week saw Washington prove they can be contenders in the NFC East after disposing of Green Bay & Carolina in their last 2 home games in Landover. HC Jon Gruden solidified my thoughts on how monumental of a task it's going to be be to put together a winner in Oakland & soon to be called the Las Vegas Raiders. His team clearly showed they didn't want to be in London as I suspected. I felt the Kansas City @ New England was everything & more what is was hyped up to be. The 43-40 (1st time an NFL game finished with that score) shootout was a sheer chess match between Bill Belichick & Andy Reid (2 active HC's with the most playoff appearances). It turned out KC QB Patrick Mahomes made a little more miscues that wound up costing his team in the end as they fell victimized to a late 4th quarter Tom Brady comeback (down 7) sealed by a Stephen Gostkowski last-second FG. Looking ahead to this week, it looks like HC Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills has saw enough of Peterman (threw yet another pick-six in relief of the injured Josh Allen on Sunday). McDermott reached into his bag of potential backups & has now pulled Derek Anderson out (a QB he worked with when recently coaching for the Carolina Panthers). He was an Oregon State QB before getting drafted in the 6th round by the Browns in 06'. In 2007, he came in for Week 2 (for starter Charlie Frye & in favor over Brady Quinn) & won 10 games for Cleveland ( their last decent season) on his way to a 10-6 Pro-Bowl season for himself but that still wasn't enough for a playoff berth. Anderson threw 8 passes last season & was 0-2 as a starter 2 years ago taking over for Cam Newton. He'll get another chance to shine as he gets the start this week @ Indianapolis. As far as numbers go, Buffalo is 2-0 ATS as 10-plus underdogs but 1-3 versus the spread as pups under 10. Some top games to watch this weekend with possible post-season aspirations are: New England @ Chicago, LA Chargers & Tennessee @ London, Carolina @ Philadelphia, New Orleans @ Baltimore & Dallas @ Washington. We'll once again try to pinpoint motivated & prepared teams by playing them @ our number against a less-focused or not @ 100% squad with disrupted chemistry. Look for an Earlybird again on Saturday along with 1 or 2 plays late Saturday/early Sunday as we try for another sweep. Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 11-1 for a VegasTopDog #1 in Win Percentage High of 91%.
 


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