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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 5 Analysis/Review/Notes/Look-Aheads


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 12, 2018
   
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Sunday, October 07, 2018 Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5.5/-105 Buffalo Bills Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) The Bills may be just 1-3 SU but have definitely taken on 4 playoff teams in a row to start the season. For this matchup, I give them a strong situational edge. The Titans not only have lost 7 of 11 roadies SU but also are coming off a hard-fought home OT win over the defending Super Bowl champs. How have these teams fared the following week after knocking off the best of last season? If this team is on the road the following week (Tennessee), they've had nothing left in the tank going a moneyline-burning 13-41 SU as well as 16-38 ATS the past 26 seasons. Combine this with the fact that Buffalo after a shutout loss have come back to win 6 of 7 games SU yet alone ATS. The numbers become even more convincing if a previous season playoff team (Buffalo) is shutout & then are installed as a home dog of 3 or more. In the past 28 seasons, these teams have gone a near-perfect 8-1-1 ATS! Titans' QB Marcus Mariota is still nursing a sore elbow (a low 79.3 QB rating) & is missing his go-to WR Delanie Walker (out for the season) & Rishard Matthews whose no longer a Titan. "Nashville's Finest" comes into this fracas ranking a very low 28th in scoring offense. Compounding their problems is ILB & leading tackler Wesley Woodyard getting his shoulder banged up in the OT win versus Philadelphia. Woodyard is vital for Tennessee's effectiveness in their 3-4 alignment. My bottom line clearly sees the Bills getting the most out of rookie QB Josh Allen since this represents their only home game in the middle of a 5-game stretch. The past 2 meetings between these 2 have barn-burners with the Bills winning in Tennessee 14-13 in 15' & the Titans winning in Buffalo 35-34 in 12'. Tennessee came from behind for 3 consecutive dog wins. They're now in the unfamiliar role of being chased as the favorite where they've struggled. Two players OVERDUE for a breakout game are RB LeSean McCoy (just 21 carries thus far) & WR Zay Jones (10 catches for 144 yards). Here's where we're playing this. Get ready to trek up to Orchard Park's New Era Field (still liked Ralph Wilson Stadium name) to play the BUFFALO BILLS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) as my NFL's Public Missed Perception Play! Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -168 Pittsburgh Steelers Rating: 7* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable Perfect System (WIN) Fellas, let's stop dressing up the Dirty Birds as a strong playoff that they were last season. They've lost 2 straight home games & have a multiple starters injured on defense that has them ranked 28th in scoring "D" & 29th in scoring defense. Giving up 80 points @ home in 2 weeks cannot be ignored. On 3rd-down, they've allowed opponents to convert at @ 50.9% rate! This is why they've given up 404 YPG & 30.5 PPG. Until both RB's - Devonta Freeman & Tevin Coleman are @ 100%, Atlanta will struggle with time of possession where they currently sit @ -3 1/2 minutes per game. This game is a strong situational edge for Pittsburgh. They come off 2 rare home losses to Kansas City & Baltimore. The last & only time in the Tomlin era the Steelers have lost 3 straight on their home field was in late-season 2012 (Baltimore, San Diego & Cincinnati) when they missed the playoffs @ 8-8. They now take on a Falcons' team who only scored 12 points in their 1st & only game outdoors this season. My bottom line says Tomlin had his team @ the chalk board several hours more than usual this week & that's understandable since there's much MORE mismatches to exploit in the secondary. Don't get fooled by the missing Le'Veon Bell talk. Don't expect current #1 RB James Connor to be limited this week. They're clearly not playing a Raven's "D" that held them to 19 yards rushing. In the numbers show the Dirty Birds as a perfect 0-5 ATS in second of back-to-back AFC tilts. It gets even BETTER as Pittsburgh is a staggering 22-4 SU the past 26 seasons in regular season home game #3! There's 2 daggers for us. The first one has to be QB Ben Roethlisberger off a SU loss in the month of October. If the Steelers have a winning percentage of over .333 in that situation, the Black N' Gold with Big Ben are a perfect 12-0 SU & ATS! The last one recalls Atlanta's last performance on an off-surface (grass) against the Eagles. Julio Jones wasn't his usual productive self & neither was Matt Ryan in a 12-point output WITH a healthy defense. Factoring all this in, let's make our way into Heinz Field in Steel City to play the PITTSBURGH STEELERS as my NFL Earlybird Dependable Perfect System! NOTES/LOOK-AHEADS: The Bills are a different team @ home as well as Tennessee in the small favorite role. The Falcons are the same when you put them on grass. Since we're still young in the season through 5 weeks, we've seen an abundance of overtime games with 8. Keep in mind that Cleveland has been in 3 of them. Interesting enough, they've managed to cover both times the week after (3rd time this weekend) even though only 3 teams in the last 12 have won after an extra period the following week. The Chiefs & Andy "The Walrus" Reid continues to ride the unbeaten trail @ 5-0 SU with Patrick Mahomes. Keep in mind that last season they also started 5-0 SU (AFC favorite @ that time too) with Alex Smith before tanking the next 6 out of 7 games. I feel you can't win consistently without a decent defense. To give you an idea where KC's is, just listen to this! In comparison to the last season's worst defensive yards yielded per game by any team, the 2018 Chiefs (462 YPG) have given 84 MORE yards per game than that total! Ironically, this week Kansas City returns to Foxborough to take on the Patriots again (shocked NE 42-27 as 8-point dogs in 2017 game 1). Don't think Pats' skipper Bill Belichick (he'll never admit it) forgets being embarrassed when KC put up 42 last season, a record for the most points a Belichick team has given up @ home. Speaking of undefeated teams, the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl WON'T be soon. In a span of 4 upcoming weeks (8 thru 11), they will be run through a buzz saw as they take on Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle & Kansas City consecutively. On other fronts, Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has thrown for 818 yards the past 2 games. However, those stats mean nothing if you mix in 6 turnovers with them. Before you fall in love with the Browns too much, the traveling to Ohio Los Angeles Chargers have only lost to the 2 remaining undefeated teams in the NFL while going 3-0 SU against everyone else. Buccaneers' QB Jameis Winston is back behind center again! Yes, that's also the same place he's accumulated a 1-9 SU record his last 10. Don't look now, the Saints will be UP & COMING since RB Mark Ingram (8-year man out of Alabama) is BACK in the "TWO DAT" backfield with Alvin Kamara (2nd year from U of Tennessee). Being a Colts fan is still frustrating! QB Andrew Luck is also back & has thrown for 18 more attempts than the nearest competition. What does this mean? Besides the higher percentage of being on the DL again, Luck has only moved the ball 6.1 yards per attempt & good for 32nd (last) in the league. You think that Indy brass would move some numbers & make a strong play for Le'Veon Bell who doesn't seem to happy where he's @ in Pittsburgh. On a closing note, do you think Giants' HC Pat Shurmur really thinks its finished after WR Odell Beckham's negative comments? Get ready for another flux week in the NFL as we enjoy the best start to date. Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Season Overall Record: 9-1 for a crafty 90%
 


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