Sunday, October 02, 2022 New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +9.5/-110 New England Patriots Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) The Patriots have lost their starting QB Mac Jones (2nd season) to a high ankle sprain for at least a few weeks. All those mushes (those with low winning percentages) think they're in trouble now, right? Wrong! They're more than capable with 2 backups including journeyman & 13-yr vet Brian Hoyer (10-6 as a starter with Cleveland but mainly with NE for 7 yrs) & rookie/4th round draft pick out of Western Kentucky, Bailey Zappe. Including that bad stint in SF (0-6), Hoyer still has an overall 21-18-1 ATS career record. He'll be backed up by Zappe who just broke 2 FBS single-season records when he passed for 5,967 yards & 62 TD's in 21' for the Hilltoppers. The other story with Hoyer who gets the start is that he has continued to be slighted by the oddsmakers as witnessed by a not too shabby 8-3 ATS mark when installed as a 5-point plus underdog. Speaking of underdogs, it's the master in New England HC Bill Belichick (23rd season) that chimes in with a brilliant 30-12-2 point spread record as a dog. In this given situation where the Patriots are coming off a SU loss, Belichick has rolled the competition ATS posting a lights-out 11-1 in record. A similar game like this happened last season in a prime-time Monday Night football game in Orchard Park against Buffalo. It was Josh Allen up against Belichick's defensive wits for the 1st time of the season. The result was a grind-it-out slugfest that ended in a 14-10 shocking win for the Patriots. There's many things to consider for this game concerning Green Bay with QB Aaron Rodgers (sacked 8 times this season) & his offense. His team is in a proverbial sandwich! They just had a brutal, in-the-trenches battle with Tampa Bay on the road (a 14-12 win) & have an early game @ Tottenham Hotspur Stadium versus the NY Giants next week. This is a big deal for GB since they become the LAST of 32 teams to play in the UK up against the NYG who were one of the first teams to play there in 2007 (an ugly 13-10 win over Miami in rainy Wembley Stadium). Keep in mind that teams are a weak 25-35-1 ATS the game PRIOR to their London trip (the Saints & Vikings both didn't cover last week). My bottom line says even though the Packers may LOOK like they should breeze over NE, the Patriots' "D" (ranked 11th in total "D") have already played 2 better offenses with mobile QB's(Miami's Tua Tagovailoa & Baltimore's Lamar Jackson) & have gotten pressure in the backfield as they rank #3 in sack percentage after 3 weeks. They take on a GB team (far from 100%) that's averaged just 16 PPG (27th in the league in scoring) with 6 TO's heading into this game. Crunching the numbers show the Tea Men chime in @ #6 in YPP with a + 0.6 which is strange since they carry an 0-2-1 pointspread tally. NE is also 6-0 ATS after a double-digit loss @ home. NE has 2 dependable backs in Damien Harris (160 yards rushing) & Rhamondre Stevenson (145 yards on the ground) who both average way over 4 YPR. The kicking game is also KEY with the Patriots having Nick Folk. He comes into this game making 57 consecutive FG's inside the 50-yard line. With NE coming off a 3 TO game, getting points is the way to go. Since GB HC Matt LeFleur has yet to cover a double-digit non-divisional pointspread, let's travel among the Cheeseheads as we go to legendary Lambeau Field in Wisconsin to play the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (buying to + 11 1/2) as my 8 Star Public Missed Perception Play! Quick Notes/Power Rankings -- Another successful week where we nailed the Pats. Without further delay, here's my Top 14 NFL teams heading into NFL Week 5: 1) Philadelphia Eagles - Their control of the line of scrimmage & NFL-best +8 turnover differential tell the tale thus far. 2) Buffalo Bills - Expect them to reverse the trend on not winning many games by single-digits. 3) Kansas City Chiefs - Mahomes is super-talented but Reid needs to lean on his running game way more than he has. 4) Minnesota Vikings - A sneaky selection but face it, they look more & more like the team to win the NFC North. 5) Miami Dolphins - I'm not sure how they'll survive Tua NOT being in the lineup. They could become a team in constant flux. 6) Green Bay Packers - I'm not sure if the Cheeseheads can win their division this time around. The offense has question marks with some key cogs missing. 7) San Francisco 49ers - For now, my leader of the NFC West. However, they have to hold serve with Garoppolo on the road. Let's see if they survive Carolina! 8) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - They'll be atop the roost in the NFC South until someone knocks them off. The defense will keep them honest while they win ugly games. 9) Baltimore Ravens - Maybe John Harbaugh needs a little help in the game-managing phases. When he over-thinks, it's not a good sign. The talent is there but the defense needs more playmakers. 10) Dallas Cowboys - Can Cooper Rush continue registering W's while leaning hard on their defense? A key test awaits @ So-Fi! 11) New York Giants - To me, it seems like HC Brian Daboll has made believers (especially Daniel Jones) inside the clubhouse. London awaits! 12) Los Angeles Rams - This team will only get back to the playoffs if Matt Stafford heals. There's no other way. 13) Cincinnati Bengals - I'm not sure if the Siberian Bengal look can sustain enough firepower for the team & fan base for a stretch drive. There present status is still iffy to notch another playoff berth. 14) Jacksonville Jaguars - They get the nod over the Chargers for this spot based on head-to-head. The NFL's 4th-best in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) has a chance to build momentum with Houston, the NY Giants & Las Vegas @ home with a neutral game versus Denver @ Wembley & 1 lone roadie versus Indy the next 5 weeks. stay tuned as my football (CFB & NFL) winning streak has reached a decade-high 12 in a row heading into Sunday! Thanks to all my friends, followers, subscribers, ex-teammates, co-workers, Mocanaqua, Northwest & King's people who believe in my unique process. Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Overall Record: 5-2 for a very movin' 71%
 

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