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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 16 & CFB Bowl Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 25, 2018
   
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Sunday, December 23, 2018 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1.0/-102 Seattle Seahawks Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Sunday Night Bailout Play (WIN) That Los Angeles Chargers' loss to Baltimore was more than BIG for Kansas City. All they have to do now is beat Oakland @ home next week regardless of this outcome since they own the tiebreaker over the Chargers. On the flip side of the coin we find a Seattle squad needing a win or slipping into a 6th-seed tie with Philadelphia if they lose here. The Seahawks take on a 11-3 SU Chiefs' team that's only been a mediocre 2-2 the past month. The revamped "Legion Of Boom" defense is looking better going 3-0 SU @ home the past 3 coming off a 21-7 pasting of the Vikings their last time @ CenturyLink Field. They currently sit as the NFC's 5th-seed & are in a favorable position since they would play @ 4th-seeded Dallas if they both hold their current positions. My bottom line has to put the emphasis on the Seahawks running game that hold the league's top spot with a 155 YPG average. Besides the Featherheads allowing 5 YPR, Seattle should be able to exploit them since they clearly look like they're banged-up or lacking @ some key skill positions. We cannot ignore the play of late from Seattle QB Russell Wilson (31/6 TD/INT ratio, 66.3% completions & 11.6 QBR) whose been brilliant the last games with a 13/1 TD/INT ratio. Let's now crunch some serious numbers. Being in the home dog status since 2012, they've responded all 4 times they've been put in that role while also being a super-solid 11-1-1 ATS the past 8 seasons with 9 outright W's. The Chiefs have been leaking oil of late going 1-5-1 ATS the past 7 including yielding 35 PPG their past 4. The daggers for us have to be the Seahawks owning a near-perfect 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS after playing SF but a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS if @ home in that same situation. Remember, since Week 5, Kansas City has a 1-3 SU record & has an accumulative -14 minutes of possession time against current playoff teams. Let's go to "12th Man" CenturyLink Field to play the Seattle Seahawks (buying to a key + 3 1/2) as my NFL Sunday Night Bailout Play! Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -182 Miami Dolphins Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Earlybird #1 Of Hi-Roller Premium Parlay (LOSS) Even though 7-win home favorites in Week 15 aren't all that, the Jaguars (who are 1-9 SU the past 10 & have now lost 10 or more games for the 7th time in the last 8 seasons) & QB Cody Kessler CAN'T SCORE! Last week versus the Skins, he threw for a whopping 57 yards & has orchestrated 1 TD drive the past 12 quarters! In those last 3 games, Jacksonville has averaged an Antarctic 9.3 PPG. This team have no motivation & take on a Miami team that's still mathematically alive in the playoff hunt. On the flip side of the coin, the Dolphins are averaging 24 PPG over the past 4 & have their QB back in Ryan Tannehill under center. What's so great about Tannehill you say? For starters, he has a nifty 16/6 TD/INT ratio (8/1 the last 4 games) along with a 100.6 QBR (compared to Kessler's 76). In his last 9 home games slinging it @ The Rock, he's a lights-out 9-0 SU. That's a lot better than Jay Cutler who went 6-8 SU in relief of him last year. Despite having a Top 3 pass defense, the Jags have proven they are vulnerable to QB's who can generate the big play. Because of changes @ QB & OC, this defense is on the field way too long. My bottom line looks @ key numbers like Jacksonville being 6-24 ATS off a homer & now facing a non-divisional opponent whose off an away game. Let's also emphasize HC Adam Gase (even though 1-6 SU on the road TY) has been gold in Florida going 16-6 SU @ home overall & nifty 12-6-4 ATS. After his defense has given up 40 or more, these same Fish have come right back to go a near-perfect 6-1 ATS as favorites. Our dagger for this game should be backup & rookie RB out of Arizona State Kalen Ballage (in for injured Frank Gore) whose coming in fresh off a 123-yard rushing performance versus a Top 6 defense like Minnesota's. Miami has clearly been the more opportunistic team with a +9 turnover ratio compared to -10 for the Jaguars. With the Jacksonville "D" looking pedestrian the 2nd half of the season on the road (giving up over 28 PPG), it's been no help from the offense either with Kessler or Bortles only throwning 15 TD passes in 14 games. By games end, they won't have enough firepower to trade punches scoring FG's. Let's make our way down to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens to play the MIAMI DOLPHINS as my NFL Earlybird #1 Hi-Roller Premium Play! Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5.0/-125 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Later Game #2 Of Hi-Roller Premium Parlay (TIE) Congratulations to the Bears for clinching their first playoff berth since 2010. Even though Chicago 10-4 SU is a very talented team, they're clearly running on a half tank after tackling in succession the Los Angeles Rams & Green Bay Packers (1st win over the Pack' in 3 years). Da Bears (in a classic let-down position) seem to play down to their competition on the road with OT losses to the New York Giants & Miami Dolphins. In addition, look for HC Matt Nagy to keep some players fresh for a more-important wild card home game against NFC 6th-seed Minnesota, Philadelphia or Seattle in 2 weeks. The Bears also have a game immediately in the hopper @ the Vikings. The key to THIS game will be the effectiveness of a balanced Niners' running game. RB's Matt Breida (5.3 YPR) & Jeff Wilson (4.4 YPR) will look to keep the Chicago pass rush honest & open play action up for QB Nick Mullins (10/6 TD/INT ratio & a 96 QBR). San Francisco may not look the part @ 4-10, but they've gone a respectable 4-3 SU @ home that include wins over Denver & Seattle in succession. While Bears' DE Khalil Mack is stealing the stage with an NFC-leading 12.5 sacks, the 49ers have a pretty good sack man themselves in DRT DeForest Buckner (3rd-year out of Oregon) with 11 sacks. He'll look to keep Chicago QB Mitch Trubisky in check whose a pedestrian 3-3 SU on the road this season. My bottom line looks @ numbers like the Bears (also 1-3 as single-digit road favorites TY) being a perfect 0-4 SU & ATS the past 10 seasons after beating the hated-rival Packers. San Francisco has won 8 of their last 9 from the Windy City Clan @ this venue. The daggers for us have to be HC Kyle Shanahan's performance in the month of December going 7-1 SU AND a super-reliable 16-4 SU in their 3rd of 3 consecutive home games. Let's trek Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS as my NFL Later Game #2 Of Hi-Roller Premium Parlay! Saturday, December 22, 2018 Buffalo vs. Troy (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -110 Buffalo Rating: 8* Mike's College Bowl Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Wow! Most EVERY tout & mush think that Troy runs away with this. Yes, it's well documented how BAD the Mid-American Conference teams do in bowls. However, there are still limited exceptions to the rule. A decent offense like Ohio U. has now rolled in both of their appearances in 2017 & again this week. The key question left unanswered here is if backup QB Sawyer Smith can mimic what the now-injured Kaleb Barker had achieved earlier. On the flip side of the coin, we have a very talented team on offense that puts up 35 PPG for HC Lance Leipold & is led by QB Tyree Jackson (2,857 passing yards & 27 TD's). Jackson is getting excellent balance this season with red-shirt freshman Kevin Marsh & freshman Jaret Patterson combining for 1,751 rushing yards & 25 TD's on the ground. My bottom line says the Bulls have been battle-tested away from UB Stadium on the road with 5 wins @ Temple, Big-Ten entry Rutgers, Central Michigan, Toledo & Bowling Green. The Trojans' "D" already showed some vulnerability losing to a like opponent in strong-passing Liberty by a 22-16 count. With Troy averaging 11 PPG the last 2, I question their offensive output in the long run (despite playing this in state) against a team that's motivated since they have some unfinished business after losing the MAC Title game to Northern Illinois. This will be Troy's 3rd straight bowl (edged Ohio U. here 2 years ago) while Buffalo will be excited going to their 1st bowl in 5 years. Let's go to Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, AL for the Dollar General Bowl to play the BUFFALO BULLS as my 8* College Bowl Public Missed Perception Play! NOTES: I was disappointed in the Bulls on Saturday coughing it up 3 times in a game they had in the 2nd half. Our only other loss on the under-achieving Dolphins saw Ryan Tannehill throw a game-changing pick-6 late as he lost for the 1st time @ home in 10 games! HC Kyle Shanahan may want to tweak the playbook again as the 49ers gave us a push in a game they should have won. Look for the mushes to be out in FULL FORCE for NFL Week 17 & the middle bowls as add on to a red-hot season in both the NFL & CFB. Thanks & Merry Christmas to all the loyal fans & followers! Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Overall Record: 27-14 for 66% Mike Handzelek's December NFL Record: 7-2 for 78% Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 CFB Overall Record: 26-14 for 65% Mike Handzelek's College Bowl Record: 2-2 for 50%
 

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