Sunday, December 04, 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions (NFL) 1:00 PM EST Detroit Lions Premium Pick WagerWeb Play Title: Mike's NFL Sunday Snap-Backer Play (WIN) Play Selected: Money Line: 0 Rating: 9* Analysis: HC Dan Campbell & his Lions have been laughed at & chewed apart on every tabloid east or west of the Mississippi. Because of that, this persona is a hard thing to shake off & that's especially true when dealing with pointspreads. I feel how you do in November is usually how you'll proceed in December. What I've seen is a Detroit team that's beaten Green Bay 15-9, out-lasted the Chicago 31-30, rolled the Giants 31-18 on the road & took the highly-regarded Bills to the wire before losing 28-25 on Thanksgiving. In contrast, the Jaguars lost to Denver 21-17 @ Wembley, got the best of Las Vegas 27-20, lost @ Kansas City 27-17 & shocked Baltimore 28-27. While the Lions come in winners of 3 out of the last 4, Jacksonville has been hot then cold over that same time period. RB Jamaal Williams has a league-leading 13 rushing TD's & has been excellent in short yardage & in red-zone situations. Having a healthy DeAndre Swift is a BIG deal many have over-looked here. Even more important than their backfield, QB Jared Goff has thrives @ home turning in a pro-bowl like 15/3 in 6 games this season (Lions went 4-1-1 ATS). Knowing this, add to it the Jaguars 1-22 SU away from home record since the late 19' season & we have more than something brewing! My bottom line stresses hard it's tough to back HC Doug Pederson's squad since they are no-show, ticket-ripping 4-32 on the ML in non-conference affairs. Adding more fuel to the fire is the Jaguars ranking 32nd amongst special teams. Let's take a look @ an appearing on the upswing QB Trevor Lawrence. He comes into this game holding a 1-12 SU & 3-10 spreadwise record on the road for his career. If the Jags are not more than 7-point underdogs, he sits @ a perfect 0-5 SU & ATS. The Floridians have also gone a losing proposition 1-4 ATS before a divisional road game & carry a 1-3 spread mark in their 1st of back-to-back travelers. On the flip side of the coin, Lions' QB Jared Goff turns in a near-perfect 8-0-1 versus the spread mark versus opponents coming off a SU win. Getting the ball to WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is pivotal for Goff which is the best way to exploit a weak Jacksonville pass defense. Remember, even though these teams have identical 4-7 SU records, it's the "Motor City Madmen" who've lost all 7 games versus teams with a winning or .500 record. The more-rested & more-prepared Lions have won & covered their past 3 of this series. This game should have its share of points & both will be hard to separate. Let's get pumped & ready to go to Ford Field in Michigan to play the DETROIT LIONS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 9 Star Sunday Super Snap-Backer Play! New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (NFL) 1:00 PM EST New York Jets Premium Pick YouWager Play Title: Mike's NFL Earlybird Smart Play (WIN off the BUY) Play Selected: Point Spread: +3/-115 Rating: 8* Analysis: I say watch yourselves as in Jon Q. Public when you over-emphasize comparing scores. Too many have pointed out that New England beat the 7-4 SU New York Jets twice (22-17 & 10-3) while the 9-2 SU Vikes handled the Pats 33-26 Thanksgiving night. Yes, there's no doubt that the winner of the CB Sauce Gardner/ WR Justin Jefferson matchup is pivotal. There's many areas where the Jets enjoy an advantage. For instance, in the highly-regarded DVOA, its the Jets ranking 9th while the Purple People Eaters are a distant 24th. Despite the New Yorkers having Zach Wilson under center (a 4/5 TD/INT ratio) as well as the immobile Joe Flacco (a 5/3 TD/INT ratio), they still come in @ a +54 over Minnesota's +5 in point differential. That's with New York playing the 5th toughest schedule compare to Minny's 16th according to the Sagarin ratings! No, new QB Mike White won't get 315 passing yards & 3 TD's every week. However, I feel OC Mike LaFleur (9-yr. vet) will figure out how White thrives inside his system to put his defense in position to win games in the end. My bottom line says Vikings' QB Kirk Cousins struggles against constant pressure. I feel he will make a few too many errant throws here. Remember, the New York defense ranks 6th in total "D" & 8th against the pass while Twin Cities' squad chime in @ 31st in total "D" & 32nd versus the pass. That includes a mediocre Mac Jones of the Patriots who threw for 382 yards against them. Let's face it, the Jets have proven time & time again this season that they can play on the road with victories versus Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Green Bay & Denver. I'm ready to rock n' roll as we visit U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis to play the NEW YORK JETS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) as my 8 Star NFL Earlybird Smart Play! NOTES/POWER RANKINGS: The Lions performed even better as planned by putting up 40 points on Jacksonville. Jared Goff had an excellent day (31-for-41 for 337 yards & 2 TD passes to Amon-Ra St. Brown who caught 11 throws for 114 yards. Detroit out-gained the Jags 437 to 266 on the day & remained a 1/2 game ahead of Green bay in the NFC North. Speaking of the NFC North, the Vikings continued their winning ways after stopping 2 NY Jets' deep 4th-quarter red-zone threats (1 @ the 1-yard line). Buy points are KEY as getting + 7 1/2 was the sharp play-on number in a 27-22 NYJ cover. New York out-gained Minnesota 486 to 287 on the afternoon. Get ready because here's my ever-changing NFL Power Rankings! 1) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - This team's 11-1 SU record & dominance of a rugged Tennessee squad (a 35-10 win) has solidified their ranking. Jalen Hurts was excellent in the clutch going 30-for-41 for 386 yards with 3 passing TD's & 1 rushing TD. The defensive line controlled the line of scrimmage where they held Titans' RB Derrick Henry (1,078 rushing yards for 10 TD's on the season) to 30 yards on 11 carries & no TD's. Mark your calendars for Christmas Eve @ 4:25 PM for meeting # 2 with 9-3 SU Dallas in Arlington. 2) BUFFALO BILLS - It was an excellent win over New England but immediately over the horizon awaits 2 heated with revenge AFC East rivalry games with the New York Jets (lost to them 20-17) & the Miami Dolphins (lost to them 21-19). Their extra rest (played on Thursday) is an advantage. Look out when their defense gets healthy! 3) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - Some teams just don't match up well like KC with Cincinnati. Pat Mahomes dropped to 0-3 SU (3-3 pt. losses) versus Joe Burrow & HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid now sits 1-4 SU with the Chiefs versus the Bengals. The Chiefs' defense needs to figure out how to effectively cover when the Bengals' use their 11 personnel (1 RB & 1 TE) late in the game. 4) DALLAS COWBOYS - I'm not sure why they needed to run up the score in the 4th quarter after the game was decided late. The schedule-makers love this team giving them Indy, Houston & Jacksonville before that home game with Philadelphia December 24th. However, they will be @ Tennessee 5 days later. 5) MINNESOTA VIKINGS - They keep winning SU while also winning the turnover war (2-0 versus the NYJ). Dalvin cook is getting his carries & Kirk Cousins continues his game-manager aspects with keeping WR Justin Jefferson involved (7 catches for 45 yards & 1 TD). They have a favorable schedule with their toughest game left most likely being @ Green Bay on New Year's Day. 6) CINCINNATI BENGALS - Joe Burrow & Co. is making a very serious run @ the AFC North title. Their impressive 27-24 victory over KC has turned heads but that Week 18 home game with Baltimore could decide the division. A healthy RB Joe Mixon is paramount down the stretch. However, Samaje Perine stepped up big on Sunday. 7) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - The defense looks like its getting better. Will that be enough to get them through the beasts from the NFC East - Philadelphia & Dallas? Does losing Jimmy Garoppolo (broken foot) for the season (rookie Brock Purdy is the man now with journeyman Josh Johnson backing up)? Let's just say that under HC Kyle Shanahan, Garoppolo is 48-17 SU while all other QB's have gone a no-show 9-29. Will Purdy handle that pressure? 8) MIAMI DOLPHINS - Yes, Tua Tagovailoa has a miserable day with 4 turnovers (3 INT's & a fumble) versus the #1 in the NFL 49ers' defense. Everyone is awaiting the big clash @ Orchard Park versus the Bills in 2 weeks. 9) BALTIMORE RAVENS - The whole season is on the line pending how serious the injury is & how completely healed Ravens' franchise QB Lamar Jackson will be in the future. Backup Tyler Huntley is a game-manager but not the QB that can take them to the Super Bowl. 10) NEW YORK JETS - It looks like the defense is remaining solid. If new QB Mike White can put together the success of his 2nd half performance @ Minnesota, NY can make some noise come playoff time. They have to improve on their 1-for-6 red zone & 3-for-16 on 3rd down performances they turned in Sunday. 11) TENNESSEE TITANS - With Houston & Jacksonville twice remaining, let's wait & see how Tannehill & Henry perform versus Dallas @ home on December 29th. The Titans' rushing attack was a flop versus the Eagles' 18th-ranked rushing defense. 12) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - Just when everyone is ready to write off HC Pete Carroll's squad, they position themselves back into an NFC Wild card spot. While the running game was mostly shut down versus the Rams' 4th ranked rushing "D", QB Geno Smith connected with WRs Tyler Lockett & D.J. Metcalf for a combined 17 completions for 255 yards & 2 TD's in a 27-23 road win. 13) NEW YORK GIANTS - This squad has its chances in the 4th quarter versus Washington. The enforced 15-yard taunting penalty on center Jon Feliciano (for flexing his muscles) taking them out of FG range with a 7-point lead was a game-changer. However, WR Darius Slayton needs to make that catch in OT on a perfect deep throw from QB Daniel Jones to seal the deal. This tie could mean making or falling short of the playoffs by a 1/2-game @ the end of the season. 14) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - This is the only super under-achieving squad on my list. From here on, I'm power-ranking the 14 playoff-positioned teams so the Bucs are here despite their SU record. Tom Brady isn't a miracle worker! To succeed, he needs OT Tristan Wirfs (ankle/knee issues) healthy along with TE Cameron Brate, RB Leonard Fournette (hip) & WR Russell Gage (hamstring). Unless NT Vita Vea (foot), S Antoine Winfield (ankle) & CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (quadriceps) get right, Tampa Bay will be one & done in January. NEAR MISSES: Washington Commanders, Los Angeles Chargers & New England Patriots. Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Overall Record: 23-17 for an up & rising 58% NFL Record L3 Weeks: 9-3 for 75%, L2 Weeks: 6-1 for 86%
 

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