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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 12 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 2, 2020
   
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Sunday, November 29, 2020 San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams (NFL) - 4:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-110 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) I'm not quite sure where Jon Q. Public is going loving the Rams this week. The reality says they have to get up for another heated intra-divisional battle after 2 straight emotional wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27-24) & the Seattle Seahawks (23-16). Remember, this is an INTENSE rivalry that goes back 70 years (the Rams with Bobby Waterfield & Norm Van Brocklin beat SF (with QB Frankie Albert) 35-14 @ Kezar Stadium) with the 49ers holding a 72-67-3 series lead. While the #1 ranked overall Los Angeles defense gets more acclaim with playmakers DT Aaron Donald & CB Jalen Ramsey, let's not forget San Francisco's "D" isn't too far behind @ 7th overall & 4th against the pass. There's a situational edge to consider here since the Rams come off those 2 emotional wins & come off a short week playing on MNF while the Gold Rushers have had 2 weeks to heal AND prepare for this rivalry. My bottom line says if SF can limit turnovers, they should be in it to win it as through all their adversity, they still have moved the ball significantly with a 7-3 In The Stats advantage by out-gaining their opponents by 49 YPG coming into Game 11. QB Nick Mullens (1,390 passing yards, 67.3% completions & a 6/6 TD/INT ratio) should get the start & will be utilizing his RB's Tevin Coleman & Jerrick McKinnon in trying wide runs again to stretch the Rams' "D" to open up play-action. Let me stress once again. I question what L.A. has left in their tank after 2 blockbusters & having to play off a short week. I'll gladly go to Inglewood's brand-spanking new So-Fi Stadium to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (buying to + 8 1/2) as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Arizona Cardinals vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2/-116 New England Patriots Rating: 9* Mike's Inter-Conference Surpriser (WIN) All the mushes are BANKING on the theory that if Houston's mobile QB Deshaun Watson can handle the Patriots last week then the similar-style of Cards' QB Kyler Murray should be able to take those same advantages. The reality of it says there are far more intangibles to figure in when applying the right formula. New England HC Bill Belichick has added speed to the 2nd & 3rd lines with S Kyle Dugger & LB Terez Hall just for the purpose of slowing down & containing playmakers to keep the Pats in it to win it. This same Arizona squad has dropped 2 of their last 3 SU & will be playing this game without WR Larry Fitzgerald (out due to COVID-19 protocol). Another one of those intangibles to factor in has to be surface and/or conditions. Knowing Belichick (whose an amazing 13-3-1 ATS as a home pup with NE), I'm expecting him to adjust his playbook accordingly to take any advantages of weather & surface NE enjoys. My bottom line says the Teamen have a situational edge since the Cardinals have a big game in their division with the L.A. Rams on deck while NE heads to the west coast to meet the L.A. teams the next 2 weeks. This game represents the ONLY home game for the Patriots over a 5-game stretch. The analytics show New England faces a pedestrian Zona' defense ranked 19th overall combined with the SOLID fact they have been installed as a home underdog just 4 times since 2006 & came out of them with flying colors winning 4 SU & ATS. Just 2 weeks ago, they were 6 1/2-point home dogs to Baltimore & won OUTRIGHT 23-17. Crunching further numbers reveal these same Red Birds have lost focus against the AFC as road chalk of 7 or less having gone a ticket-ripping 1-6-1 against the number. Digging deeper, analytics show the Patriots are a take-me-to-the-window 14-5 ATS when playing with a record below .500 but a better 11-2 ATS if also a dog. I'm looking for RB Sony Michel (averages 6.7 YPR this season) to play a KEY role in this outcome. Let's go to Foxborough's Gillette Stadium to play the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (buying to a + 4 1/2--almost forcing a win by a TD or more by a shaky road chalk) as my 9* Inter-Conference Surpriser! NOTES: It worked like a charm as HC Bill Belichick's defensive scheme was true to form when matched up against 2nd-year QB Kyler Murray (held to 170 passing yards) for the 1st time. It was apparent Murray looked confused as he held on to the ball too long along while looking hesitant to throw on other dropbacks. The mushes were targeting me with a lot of negative press for the 49ers + 8 1/2 pick. As delivered, the SF defense isn't too far away from LA's considering in the divisional/familiarity angles. It was nice to see another sweep weekend in the pros as I now sit 7 percentage points higher than the World Championship year when the entry finished 1st @ 65%. Those who know me have tracked my consistency & also know my unique approach each week. We'll go the distance & get the job done! Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 23-9 72%
 


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