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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 12 Analysis/Review/NOTES


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 27, 2019
   
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Monday, November 25, 2019 Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -185 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 9* Mike's MNF Attention Grabber (WIN) Baltimore is the REAL DEAL! They want home field & I think they have an excellent shot @ getting it. The Rams are a totally different story. They're like an Eagles ready to happen. Like Philadelphia's defense was wasted yesterday, so too will L.A.'s. QB Lamar Jackson is playing out of this world the past 5 games with a 13/0 TD/INT ratio. Yes, there's a bright spot for the Rams as RB Todd Gurley is off of a game with 188 scrimmage yards. However, he's NOT been too consistent throughout the season. Let's roll the dice & dare him to do it again! L.A. is going NOWHERE this season & should fade into mediocrity. The only position up for grabs is the #4 spot -the NFC East Champ. Yes, new L.A. Safety Eric Weddle (formerly with Ravens) can help with providing tendencies. However, Jackson (788 rushing yards as a QB!--263 yards more than RB Gurley) is more versatile & can morph into a game plan off each snap in or out of the shotgun that Weddle doesn't know about. If the NE "D" couldn't figure him out, what's the Rams' chances. How can you trust Jared Goff whose thrown TD's like INT's (11/10 TD/INT ratio) all season! Goff's supposed HOT reads are more like slow reads. You can't put money on that. Let's make way to Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum & hold our noses as we'll side with HC John Harbaugh's game plan & grab the BALTIMORE RAVENS as my MNF Attention Grabber! Sunday, November 24, 2019 Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5.5/-110 Dallas Cowboys Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (WIN) November has to be the trickiest month in pro football where some hot teams fade a little (KC) & some cold teams get hot (ATL). There's been times we settled on a dog @ + 6 instead of taking it where it should have been @ + 7 1/2. Those few games have meant the difference of about 58% instead of 62% overall. we won't be making that mistake again this season. For this one, forget the SU home records & all the trends that obviously favor 9-1 SU New England. This is 1 game & how meaningful a game it is to both is what must be weighed. This isn't a game where we match up the coaches or the SU winner. Tom Terrific (4 TD passes the past 5 games) isn't as dazzling this season (2,752 passing yards, 14/5 TD/INT ratio, 63.7% completions, 6.8 YPA, sacked 16 times with a 90.1 QBR) & has beaten the likes of Buffalo & now Philadelphia with a defense that's bailed him out. However, that same "D" has shown susceptibility versus good rushing offenses (they've yielded 135 or more rushing yards in 4 of their last 7). Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliott (5-100-yard games, 833 rushing yards, 4.3 YPR, 7 TD's, 220 receiving yards, 1 TD) is the best runner on the field. He should be fresh since he was used sparingly last week in a 35-27 ho-hum win @ Detroit. I'm expecting a break out week in NE. Previously versus Buffalo & Baltimore, the Pats rushing "D" was dented for a combined 345 yards. The facts remain that the Patriots have faced the 30th easiest schedule to date & this is the 2nd best team they will face (the other was a loss to Baltimore). The only winning team they've beaten was Buffalo by 6 (16-10) AND that was after getting 4 takeaways! They now face Jerry's Boys who rank #1 in total offense (averaging over 33 PPG over their last 4) & #1 in protecting the QB (sacked @ only 3.3%) in the NFL. The Cowboys also have a not too shabby defense that's in 7th in points allowed. Dallas also has a very good stalk of WR's with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup & Randall Cobb combining for 134 receptions, 2,059 receiving yards & 13 TD's). New England's top 3 WR's (Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett & Jakobi Meyers) have tabulated 109 receptions, 1,227 receiving yards & 9 TD's) fail in comparison. Yes, they're some injuries to consider. NE's WR Mohamed Sanu (came over in a trade with Atlanta for a 2020 2nd-round pick) & Dallas OLB Leighton Vander Esch (2018 1st-round pick) won't see playing time. My bottom line says this game won't be too big or intimidating for Cowboys' QB Dak Prescott (3,221 passing yards, 67.7% completions, 21/9 TD/INT ratio, 8.8 YPA, sacked just 12 times with a 104.1 QBR) has shown major improvements under OC Kellen Moore & QB coach Jon Kitna. In their 1st rough road test @ New Orleans, the Pokes "D" gave up 262 total yards & only lost 12-10 despite 3 turnovers. Keep in mind, in the previous 2 games facing a Top 10 scoring defense, the Tea Men have averaged 16.5 PPG! NE does get OT Isaiah Wynn & WR N'Keal Harry back this week which should push the Pats over the 20-point mark. I'm not counting on much Dallas turnovers today as they've committed just 5 the past 5 with their defense getting back 8. The NE "D" have generated just 3 turnovers over the last 2 with a just +1 team turnover ratio. The Cowboys NEED this game much more than the Patriots since a 2nd-place finish in the NFC East means an early ticket to the golf course. Let's hope the officials call a fair game today. Just like a good pitcher in baseball, we'll gladly go to Gilette Stadium in Foxborough to play the DALLAS COWBOYS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 9* NFL Earlybird Dependable! Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 0/-110 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Sorry, I'm not buying that pivotal WR Tyler Lockett is playing near 100% for Seattle. Fortunately for us, the mushes certainly are! In addition, look for the Eagles' rushing attempts to now be split between RB's Miles Sanders & the newly-inserted Jay Ajayi. What really stands out for us has to be how narrowly the Seahawks have escaped on the road in their 5 wins. Minus their 17-point win @ division rival Arizona, Pete Carroll & Co. has won on the road by an average of 4 points per game. The odds-makers have made this game WAY too easy to hop all over the 8-2 Hawks' here. Seattle comes into this game off 2 straight OT wins & now face a flexed 10 AM start (Pacific Time). Yes, there's always the Russell Wilson factor whose been outstanding with a 23/2 TD/INT ratio & a 114.9 QBR. However, I feel very desperate teams usually step up in an unusual way. The 5-5 SU Eagles KNOW this is a must-win game as will a month from now with Dallas IF the have any hopes of making the NFC Playoffs. My bottom line says after watching the NE game film, Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz (16/4 TD/INT ratio & a 91.4 QBR) should be able to figure out how to vertically connect (on a consistent basis) with his WR's & both TE's. The Eagles' rushing defense has played well (held 8 out of 10 opponents under 100 yards) goes up against the Seahawks' rushing attack that's rushed for over 100 yards in 9 straight coming in. Look for those nail-biter wins (7 wins by 7 or less) to level off a bit versus Philly's major survival mode. Let's make it to Lincoln financial Field to play the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6/-106 New York Giants Rating: 8* Mike's Sunday Sharps' Play (WIN) Why are we on the 2-8 SU Giants? Because it's time as in RB Saquon Barkley has has his 2 important weeks to recuperate & should finally be READY to go. He's the X-factor that must play @ high octane in order for the success of his QB as in Daniel "Danny Dimes" Jones. I feel the Gints' "D" (that's right Gints') can finally find some success against a team ranked 30th in total offense in the 4-6 SU Chicago Bears. What i really would like to stress is how horrible (if not worse) HC Matt Nagy has handled the QB situation. He seems to be listening to the front office & then pawn it off as himself when asked why he sticks with struggling QB Mitchell Trubisky (9/4 TD/INT & a very low 82.2 QBR). How bad has it been? The Monsters Of The Midway have toppled 300 total yards of offense just ONCE in 10 games & have scored 16.9 PPG! On the flip side of the coin, NY rookie QB Jones has a higher QBR (88) & has shown vast improvements with a very nifty 9/1 TD/INT ratio over his past 3 games. My bottom line says the general public or mush-type bettors seem to have under-estimated them since they've posted an 8-3 ATS record going back to late last season. NY has also been very profitable as a roadie going 9-2 versus the number the past 11. If there's an X-Factor, it's got to be how Chicago has done versus a team off a SU loss. The past 9 times in this situation has seen Da Bears tickets return back to the window ONCE! O'h we're ready! Let's go to LEGENDARY Soldier Field to play the NEW YORK GIANTS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my Sunday Sharps' Play! Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4/-115 Denver Broncos Rating: 8* Mike's 8* Ugly Pig game Of The week (LOSS) This is a game with strength on strength defensively with the Broncos ranking 4th in total "D" while the Bills chime in @ 3rd. What stands out for me is NOT the defenses BUT the strength of schedule. Taking over that same category as easiest schedule faced (new England enjoyed that title most of the way) is now (@ 32nd) the Buffalo Bills. Six out of their 7 wins have come against teams with a combined 8-42 SU record. My bottom line says you can't give up on a 3-7 SU Denver team just yet. Remember, they lost by Chicago, Jacksonville & Indianapolis by 2 points each & got nipped by 4 @ Minnesota after blowing a 20-0 lead. I also have a situational edge to throw the Broncos way since its hard not to look ahead to a this Thursday (4:30 ET start) Turkey Day affair with Dallas for the Bills. This is still a numbers game. Let the records show that Buffalo has already had 4 double-digit wins & is fresh off one. The week following the 1st 3 double-digit wins show the Bills winning by 4, losing by 18 & losing by 3. Even though the "Boys From Mile High" have a few personnel banged up, we can't ignore the low offensive output @ home by Buffalo. They've played struggling clubs such as Cincinnati, Miami & Washington @ home & yet average a shade under 20 PPG? Here's where we'll go with this one. Let's trek to New Era Filed in Orchard Park to play the DENVER BRONCOS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) as my 8* NFL Ugly Pig Play Of The Week! Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -185 Atlanta Falcons Rating: 8* Mike's Headliner Moneyliner (LOSS) There's not too much to say about this pick since 3-7 SU Atlanta has CLEARLY turned it around by putting the defense into the hands of LB coach Jeff Ulbrich (1st & 2nd down) & assistant coach Raheem Morris (3rd down & 2-minute) instead of HC Dan Quinn. How has the Falcons fared since making the change? Try out-scoring their opponents (@ New Orleans & @ Carolina) by a 55-12 count! Even though it's tough to gauge how 3-7 SU Tampa Bay will do since you don't know which QB Jameis Winston (19/18 TD/INT ratio & a 80.5 QBR) will show up, the Buccaneers have given up over 31 PPG away from Raymond James Stadium. Their defense is ranked dead last in yards per point & are 29th in sacks. I'm not too sure even offensive guru & HC Bruce Arians can compensate all that. Atlanta's rejuvenated "D" that's sacked opposing QB's 13 times the past 3 can't be over-emphasized. I'm ready! Let's jaunt to Mercedes Benz Stadium in Georgia to play the ATLANTA FALCONS as my Headliner Moneyliner! NOTES: It was nice to hit co-Strongest Plays Of The Week on Baltimore & Dallas, but was equally frustrating not getting wins on the Eagles & Falcons. Atlanta's stellar "D" the past 2 weeks appeared non-existent as their Thanksgivings Day rivalry game with the Saints edges closer. Philadelphia may still be within striking distance of the Cowboys, but easier schedule or not, I'm not a firm believer they'll right the ship after what I saw (5 turnovers) from Carson "Came And" Wentz & his offense Sunday. They drew even in total yards but continually shot themselves in the foot throughout. Look for a BIG article on PHILLY very very soon. The Bills (with only a decent offense) continue to baffle as they registered their 5th (that's right 5th) double-digit win of the season with 5 weeks to go! Looking ahead, it will be intriguing to watch the San Francisco @ Baltimore game Sunday since it just MIGHT be a 1st glimpse @ the Super Bowl. We still have about 9 weekends of pro football left before it's all over so look for us to make our move in the waning moments. It's a marathon & NOT a sprint to the top so look forward to a full slate of winners for Week 13! Mike Handzelek's 2019 NFL Week 12 Record: 3-3 for 50%- 9 Stars 2-0 for 100% Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 26-20 for a borderline good 57%
 


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