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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 9 Analysis/Review/Notes/Look-Aheads


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 31, 2018
   
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Saturday, October 27, 2018 Iowa vs. Penn State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5.5/-106 Iowa Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (WIN OFF BUY) Guys, before I get into ANY plays this week, I'd like to get something straight. I'm NOT a traditional handicapper that's shy of wanting to evolve over the years. Unlike traditional handicapping, new concepts DO form through trial & error. What's left? A perfected system that's won 39 of my last 49 plays over 5 MONTHS! It's been a mixture of ML favorites, favorites ATS @ strategic numbers, ML dogs & dogs @ OUR number that gives us a supreme advantage. Just like a BETTER pitcher is worth -140 to -200 @ times in MLB, a football team has actually a greater chance @ winning when numbers are OVERWHELMING in their favor providing OTHER major intangibles ALSO fall in place. Sit back, have faith & judge over the LONG HAUL where it counts. You'll be glad you did! Now let's serious & talk Big Ten football. These 2 teams look like momentum has swung in a different direction. I believe the Iowa Hawkeyes (6-1 SU) will have a supreme advantage over the Nittany Lions (out-scored 48-43 the last 2 @ this venue) in Happy Valley this afternoon. Why? Because Penn State is physically SPENT & will be in the elements (hard rain) compounding their problems. Last week, a mediocre @ best Indiana offense controlled the clock most of the game & ran 100 plays on co-DC's Brent Pry & Tim Banks' "D" & took them to the wire before losing 33-28. It's hard to trust HC James Franklin who struggles with play-calling & clock management. This week, HC Kirk Ferentz (now in his 20th season) will have his offense both FRESH 7 READY! The Hawkeyes are brilliantly set up here after cruising over Maryland 23-0 while also getting some starters rest. My bottom line says REVENGE is BIG on their minds since losing on the last play 21-19 versus PSU last season in Iowa City. Iowa has ran an excellent 4-3 "D" for Phil Parker that's currently ranked #5 in scoring defense & #3 in scoring "D". QB Nathan Stanley is playing superb with 60% completions & a 16/6 TD/INT TD/INT ratio but 11 TD passes the past 3 games. My dagger for us says it's going to be hard to FULLY focus on the Hawkeyes while possible national championship playoff entrant Michigan remains on deck. keep in mind the Nittany Lions' "D" is not close to 100%. Let's go to State College to wet & muddy Beaver Stadium & hop all over the IOWA HAWKEYES (buying to a strategic + 7 1/2) as my CFB Earlybird Dependable! Arizona State vs. USC (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.0/-105 Arizona State Rating: 7* Mike's CFB Barking Out Loud Dogger (WIN) Here's an intriguing game that pits the minds of HC Herm Edwards & DC Danny Gonzales & their penetrating 3-4 scheme versus 3rd-string U.S.C. QB Jack Sears (no pass attempts thus far) who actually was Sam Darnold's successor for the San Clemente High School Tritons. Sears gets the start over the injured J.T. Daniels (concussion) & backup Matt Fink (fractured ribs). HC Clay Helton is now down to Sears (also not @ 100%) & redshirt sophomore Holden Thomas. U.S.C. is already ranked a low 114th in turnover margin before Sears throws his 1st pass. Things are much brighter on the Arizona State sidelines as they've been in every away game this season. They've lost by 7 points @ Colorado, Washington & San Diego State. Going back to late last season, the Sun Devils have not lost by over a TD in 5 consecutive regular season roadies. ASU QB Manny Wilkins is their catalyst whose passed for 1,799 yards, has 63% completions, has a nifty 11/2 TD/INT ratio along with 198 rushing yards/3TD's this season. N'Keal Harry is his favorite receiver whose 42 receptions, 572 receiving yards & 5 TD's lead the team. RB Eno Benjamin heads up a good ground attack with 753 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) & 7 TD's. They now take on a Trojans' 4-3 defense that's already lost their main tackler for the season in leading sack man Porter Gustin (broken ankle). On the flip side, Helton's offense ran just 54 plays (31 rushes for 73 yards,12-for-23 & 2 INT's in a 41-28 loss to Utah) as they watched the Utes ring up 541 yards of total offense. Revenge is key as ASU was embarrassed 48-17 in Tempe by Southern Cal last season. Let's make our way to Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to play the ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my CFB Barking Out Loud Dogger! Notes/Look-Aheads: Still bringing CFB upward with a head of steam winning the last 5. U.S.C. did struggle as planned with their 3rd-stringer. HC Herm Edwards played smash-mouth football on the road & controlled the clock by rushing for 283 yards. ASU held on for an OUTRIGHT win for us by a 38-35 count. On the other selection, Iowa out-gained Penn State 350-312 but got edged 30-24. In a downpour, I saw this game within a TD so bought buy points to over the key number of 7 as we covered by 1 1/2. However, the miracle comeback game of the year may just have been this past weekend. At home in Boulder, Colorado had a comfortable 31-3 second-half lead on Oregon State. Beavers' QB Jake Luton passed his back to tie it @ 34 by the end or regulation. He threw another TD in OT as Oregon State held for a 41-34 thriller & a +1700 ML payback @ the window. A BIG kudos are in order for Kansas who upset T.C.U. 27-26 @ paid +400 on the ML. The Horned Frogs controlled the stats @ +197 total yards but had 2 crucial TO's & stalled 2 drives inside the 10. That Jayhawks' win represented their first October win in 39 tries since 2009! Those wondering who the last 2 teams will be for the playoffs can wonder no more. The first Top 4 rankings officially came out this week with Alabama, Clemson, L.S.U. & Notre Dame holding spots in that order. Games with playoff implication this weekend are: Georgia @ Kentucky, Nebraska @ Ohio State, Oklahoma @ Texas Tech, West Virginia @ Texas, Notre Dame @ Northwestern, California @ Washington State, Penn State @ Michigan, Louisville @ Clemson & Alabama @ L.S.U.. Stick with the game plan here (I can be found @ the VegasTopDogs website) as we have a VERY deep card in CFB Saturday! Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 15-8 for a heating up 65%!
 

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