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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 9 Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 30, 2019
   
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Saturday, October 26, 2019 Troy vs. Georgia State (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1.5/-110 Troy Rating: 8* Sun Belt Contender Play (LOSS) Here's an intriguing matchup between strengths as Shawn Elliott puts his option ranked 13th nationally up against Chip Lindsey's rushing "D" raked 15th. The Trojans have proven they can control the lines of scrimmage against GSU beating them in Troy 37-20 last season & in Atlanta 34-10 @ this venue 2 years ago. I love the fact that we have a seasoned QB in Kaleb Barker (291.2 passing yards per game) that can expose a Panthers' defense that ranks 114th in pass efficiency (out of 130) & 115th in run defense.In close to 3 seasons, the only Sun Belt opponents to solve these Trojans have been South Alabama, Appalachian State & Arkansas State. Do they travel well? The past 2 seasons has seen them go into Baton Rouge to upset #25 (at the time) L.S.U. by a 24-21 count AND travel to Lincoln to shock the Huskers' 24-19 last season. Remember, they went into #2 Clemson (who beat Alabama 35-31 for the title) a few years back & just got edged 30-24! Further exploration into the numbers reveal they consistently get up against winning teams by going 9-1 ATS the past 10. Here's another building situational edge. Sun Belt teams off a Wednesday tilt (yes the Trojans have had 10 days to prepare) have come back their next game to post a 4-0-1 ATS record. My bottom line says this game should be close since the winner appears to have a chance to go to the championship if they stay clean then beat Appalachian State in November to take the Sun Belt East Division. Don't get suckered in to play a bad number as we go down to Atlanta to play these Alabama-based TROY TROJANS (buying to a key + 3 1/2) as my 8* Sun Belt Contender Play! Utah State vs. Air Force (NCAAF) - 10:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-102 Air Force Rating: 8* Mike's Saturday Night CFB Bailout Play (WIN) This is a pivotal game in deciding the Mountain West Mountain Division with the Wyoming @ Boise State & Boise State @ Utah State November games ALSO laying heavy on who plays a title game with either San Diego State or Fresno State who play November 15th. What stands out for me is the fact that the 4-2 SU Aggies returned just 2 offensive starters but have managed to go 4-2 thus far. I think they get exposed here! Nope, there's no look-ahead to Army as 5-2 SU Air Force still has aspirations to win the league title that just eluded them 4 years ago when they got edged by San Diego State 27-24. My bottom line stresses that these Falcons control both lines of scrimmage being nationally ranked on rushing offense (2nd with 304.6 YPG) & rushing defense (20th yielding just 104 YPG). The Air Force offense looked like it didn't skip a beat as Mike Schmidt generated 267 total yards & 4 TD's as he guiding his club (in relief of Donald Hammond) to 56 points @ Hawaii last week (AF has put up 99 the past 2 weeks). This is a game that pits the Falcons' 31st-ranked "D" in the FBS up against the passing of Utah State's Jordan Love. I believe HC Troy Calhoun can control the time of possession featuring well-timed passing routes using his 2 leading senior WR's in Geraud Sanders & Benjamin Waters. Calhoun (in his 13th year) has been tough @ home going 57-20 SU & is 3-0-1 ATS the last 4 in this series. On the flip side, HC Gary Andersen (5th year @ Utah State) has struggled on the road going just 10-18 SU in his tenure since coming to Logan. Yes, I'm ready to head to Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs to play the AIR FORCE FALCONS (buying to -2 1/2) as my Saturday Night Bailout Play! Syracuse vs. Florida State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -10.5/-110 Florida State Rating: 9* Mike's ACC Game Of The Week (WIN) I'm seeing tremendous value on the Seminoles here! Not only is 1st-string QB Tommy Devito forced into a start, but BOTH his backups (Senior Clayton Welch & Freshman David Summers) are bang up as well. Florida State comes in off a 30-7 drubbing by the Cuse' @ the Carrier Dome last season. The Dino Babers (3-12 SU traveling against Power 5 opponents) up-tempo offense is struggling & has averaged just 15 PPG the past 2 weeks (8 PPG in 4 ACC games thus far) with a banged-up (sacked 14 times) Devito. The Seminoles welcome MORE snaps since they've been super-solid @ home going 3-0 SU while averaging 37 PPG. The Orange face an uphill climb with a ground game rated 118th out of a possible 130. There are some numbers that conflict like Babers being 10-2-1 ATS in conference away tilts from Game 8 & deeper. I'm inclined to pay MORE attention to Syracuse being a ticket-ripping 5-17 ATS off a conference loss to a rival by 7 or less. If they go error-less in back-to-back contests, they've come back to post a Antarctic 1-10 versus the number. FSU owns the series @ this venue & are a perfect 5-0 SU in Florida. My bottom line says these game are usually NOT close with 5 of the last 6 decided by double-digits. Look for the Sems' to prevail as we go to Doak S. Campbell in Tallahassee to play the FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (buying to a key - 9 1/2) as my 9* ACC Game Of The Week! Arizona vs. Stanford (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -120 Stanford Rating: 8* PAC-12 Upgrader Play (WIN) If you look @ the Cardinal performance last week, it looks a bit misleading. Yes, U.C.L.A. outplayed them in a 34-16 Bruins' win in Stanford. However, that was a 2-week rested Chip Kelly squad that took on a Cardinal 11 that forced into duty their 3rd-string QB in Redshirt freshman Jack West. Look for the Cardinal faithful @ The Farm to be electric for Homecoming as David Shaw gets a maximum effort versus an Arizona team that just benched QB Khalil Tate (6-for-10 passing for 47 yards & was sacked 6 times) last week (in favor of true Freshman Grant Gunnell) in a bitter 41-14 loss @ Southern Cal. My bottom line says there's a situational edge since this will be the 3rd road game in 4 weeks for the Wildcats who've been unreliable on the road going 12-24 SU of late. Let's fly to Tree Country's Stanford Stadium to play the STANFORD CARDINAL as my PAC-12 Upgrader Play! Indiana vs. Nebraska (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-110 Indiana Rating: 8* Big Ten Line Value Play (WIN) The power ratings CLEARLY show that Indiana 34th-ranking is much higher than the bettors perceive who rank them 58. It's just the opposite with Nebraska as their 55th power rating fails in comparison to the bettor's grading of 28th. No matter how you slice it, this number throws us a BIG bone for line value on the underdog. The QB go-round also favors the Hoosiers as they'll be solid whether its the newly-inserted Redshirt Freshman QB Michael Penix (left Maryland game with an injury) or their vet in Junior Peyton Ramsey who came in off the bench last week to throw 20-for-27 & good for 193 yards & a TD. The Cornhuskers' side have both of their Sophomore QB's in questionable status with Adrian Martinez (knee) & Noah Vedral. Momentum speaks loads here as IU comes in riding a 4-game winning streak & are 1 win away from bowl eligibility. Added motivation has to be the 1959 year hanging above them representing the last time they won @ this venue. When we crunch some numbers, we've uncovered the Children Of The Corn are not only 1-6 ATS of late but also a no-show & the window 4-13 versus the number @ home. Let's roll to Memorial Stadium in Lincoln to play the INDIANA HOOSIERS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my Big Ten Line Value Play! Mike Handzelek's 2019 Week 9 CFB Record: 4-1 for 80% Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 19-14 for a rising 58%-5th place handicapper in Winning Percentage @ www.VegasTopDogs.com
 


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