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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 8 Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 25, 2020
   
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Saturday, October 24, 2020 Louisiana Tech vs. Texas San Antonio (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-104 Texas San Antonio Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Previous Week Retreader (WIN -- OUTRIGHT) Yep, last week was a very un-characteristic week as 2 teams including UTSA had the cover but let it slip away @ the end. The Roadrunners out-gained Army 383 t0 358 but somehow lost by 12? That's the kind of week it was as we experienced a rare 0-3 week. This week we're still not backing down from HC Jeff Traylor (1st season) & Co. since they showed up against B.Y.U. (27-20 away loss) compared to the Bulldogs getting blown away 45-14 versus the Cougars @ LaVell Edwards Stadium. UTSA (3-3 SU) has one of the premier RB's in CFB with Sincere McCormick who already has 702 rushing yards thus far. My bottom line says QB Frank Harris (with 8 offensive starters back TY) should return which should bump up the offensive output versus a Louisiana Tech (got out-rushed by Marshall LW 175 to 7) team returning just 2 defensive starters. Revenge is with the home team since the Bulldogs won 41-27 @ Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston last year. I look for Traylor's new implemented offensive schemes to take root here in Game 7 & pull off the outright upset. Points are of extreme value in a toss-up type game so here's where we'll play it. Let's go to the Alamodome to play the UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO ROADRUNNERS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my CFB Previous Week Retreader! Oklahoma vs. TCU (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7/-115 TCU Rating: 8* Mike's Big 12 Shake-Up Play (LOSS) Why is everyone treating the Sooners as your typical Big 12 champion who always has a shot to make it to the playoff? That shipped has sailed a few weeks back. If it wasn't for a Texas OT collapse last week, this Oklahoma team could have very easily come into this one @ 1-3 SU. It's going to be hard for redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler to measure up to the talent OU has had @ QB in recent years with Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray & Jalen Hurts now in the pros. I'm still in the minority of cappers who believes Sooners' HC Lincoln Riley could be in position to take over the Dallas Cowboys in the near future. All that remains is to work out "The Deal" & that depends all on Jerry Jones. For this one, T.C.U. is more than a legitimate foe (ranked in my Top 20) with QB Max Duggan under center. I love the fact that the public tends to over-value a team & that team is Oklahoma. The last 13 lined games have seen them post a 3-10 ATS record & a -137 points versus the posted number. My bottom line points @ the Horned Frogs (also beat Texas 33-31 TY) functioning with rest. HC Gary Patterson is 13-6 SU but a more-important 14-4 ATS in this situation. Tightening this further, Patterson's team is a perfect 6-0 versus the number if they are off rest AND not favored by 4 or more. Last season, these 2 played to a 28-24 Okie final despite the Sooners holding a 366 to 139 rushing edge & a 145 to 65 passing advantage. Familiarity & home field kicks in here! Let's go to Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth to play the TCU HORNED FROGS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my Big 12 Shake-Up Play! Penn State vs. Indiana (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-110 Indiana Rating: 8* Mike's Big Edge Big Ten Game Of The Week (WIN - OUTRIGHT) James Franklin's (now in his 7th season) 11-2 LY Nittany Lions are set to protect & advance their #7 (in my power rankings) spot as they travel to Bloomington. The last time they played here (2018), Penn State narrowly escaped 33-28. That was in Tim Allen's 2nd season as HC of the Hoosiers. After ending his 1st 2 seasons @ 5-7, Allen turned the corner in 19' leading Indiana to an 8-5 record (lost to Tennessee 23-22 in the Gator Bowl). The last time they reached that 8-win plateau was in 1993 under Bill Mallory when ex-N.Y. Giants WR Thomas Lewis was catching passes for him. Even though Penn State has dominated this series going 22-1 SU since 1993, the last 16 years has seen 1 game result in a PSU road win over 6 points. I feel Indiana is a team on the rise as I have them a legitimate Top 25 team this season as they have all the pieces in place (16 returning starters) including their talented QB Michael Penix (69% completions & 10/4 TD/INT ratio in 5 games). Penix will be HIGHLY motivated for this game since he tore his ACL in last year's 34-27 loss @ Happy Valley (State College). That game saw Indy with a total yards edge of 462 to 371 which now gives them a 1061 to 701 edge the last 2 seasons. My bottom line says this pointspread is inflated since the Nittany Lions lost their top players on both sides of the ball as WLB Micah Parsons (109 tackles LY & a top 10 NFL pick in the 21' draft) & RB Journey Brown (12 TD's LY) are out before they start the season. PSU QB Sean Clifford is back (passed for 179 yards & a TD versus Indy LY) along with his reliable TE Pat Freiermuth. Crunching the numbers has revealed Indiana being 33-5 SU in home openers & 14-2 SU in season lifters. This has been a home-dominated series versus the number as hosts have gone 6-2-1 ATS of late. The Hoosiers did enjoy some spring practices but their opponent opted out of all spring field activities. The situational edge goes to Indiana since waiting on-deck for Penn State is a home game with Ohio State. When the dust clears, I expect the talents of RB Stevie Scott, III (11 total TD's LY & 20 TD's the last 2Y) & WR Whop Philyor (1,002 receiving yards) should put enough points on the board to keep the Hoosiers in it to win it. Since PSU is down to 4 defensive starters back, let's go to the field turf of Memorial Stadium in Bloomington to play the INDIANA HOOSIERS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my Big Edge Big Ten Game Of The Week! Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 8 Record: 2-1 67% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 10-6 63% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 Combined CFB/NFL Overall Record: 24-11 69%
 

  Mike Handzelek
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