Saturday, September 11, 2021 Iowa vs. Iowa State (NCAAF) - 4:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -190 Iowa State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Here's a CLASSIC over-reaction (72% of public on the Hawkeyes) to the Iowa 34-6 blowout win over Indiana last week. In that game, both offenses ran 64 plays as we saw a young QB (Year 2) in Indiana's Michael Penix throwing 2 INT's that were taken back to the house. In the numbers, Penix out-passed Iowa's QB Spencer Petras (just 13-for-28) 156-145 but his 3 INT's sealed their fate. On the flip side, I feel Iowa State got caught looking ahead to Iowa in their 16-10 close call with Northern Iowa last weekend. It clearly showed HC Matt Campbell (6th year & ISU) & OC Tom Manning (came over in 19" from being the TE coach for the Indy Colts) didn't show much of the playbook in that game. The Cyclones also were flat in their opener last year (lost to Louisiana 31-14 as 11 1/2-point home favorites) before winning 37-34 @ TCU then upsetting Oklahoma 37-30 as 7 1/2-point dogs. What stands out was the last game in this series which was a 17-16 Iowa win @ this venue in 19'. The Hawkeyes had a solid QB in Nate Stanley that out-passed 327-201 by a young Brock Purdy. But winning the turnover war 2-0 was crucial in that 1-point win. Purdy (passed for 2,750 & ran for 382, 24 TD's combined last season) has looked solid overall turning in a 62/25 career TD/INT ratio. He & RB Breece Hall (ran for 1,572 yards last year) will play their "A" game here. These 2 game-changers should produce enough points to get the "W" over a mediocre offense @ best. HC Campbell will finally get a win after going 0-4 versus Kirk Ferentz in Cy-Hawk battles. Know that Ferentz hasn't fared well versus Top 25 teams with a 28-46 career SU mark in 23 years of coaching. My bottom line says the ATS numbers with Ferentz don't lie as he's 7-14 ATS career & 4-10 ATS when both teams are off a SU win. Iowa is also 2-9 ATS as a non-Big 10 dog of less than 13. Despite Iowa being 4-0 SU their last 4 of this series, it's the Iowa State side that's a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored versus their state rivals. Digging it in a little deeper, the Hawkeyes have lost 7 of their last 8 ATS when installed as a road dog. When they face winning teams on the road, they've gone a ticket-ripping 3-7 ATS. On the flip side, it's Iowa State whose gone 4-1 ATS versus winning teams & a perfect 4-0 versus the number after an ATS loss. Remember this Cy-Hawk series has seen the home team cover the past 4. Let's go to 68th Cy-Hawk meeting (Iowa leads the series 45-22) on the grass field @ Jack Trice Stadium in Ames to play the IOWA STATE CYCLONES SU as my CFB Public Missed Perception Play! GAME NOTES: ISU literally beat themselves as going -4 in turnover differential told the story in Ames. It was highlighted by a 3rd-quarter Breece Hall fumble (a Jestin Jacobs strip) that led to a 6-yard recovery & TD by Jack Campbell that broke ISU's back after closing to 14-10. Brock Purdy threw an incredible 3 INT's & was finally pulled in the 4th quarter for redshirt freshman Hunter Dekkers who threw a 13-yard TD pass to Tarique Milton under the 4-minute mark. Purdy last threw 3 INT's against Baylor & Oklahoma in 2020. In the 27-17 loss, other numbers told quite a different story. The Cyclones dominated the game in 1st downs (21-11), passing yards (252-106) & close to doubled the Hawkeyes in total yards (339-173). If the Cyclones can limit turnovers & beat Baylor & Oklahoma on the road, they still could recover to take their 1st conference title since being co-champions of the Missouri Valley in 1912. It was a disappointing day backing a team that had 26 players (18 starters) returning on both sides of the ball that started 6 or more games. Look for Week 3 to be profitable as patterns begin to shape into place. Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 CFB Overall Record: 1-1 for 50%
 

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