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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 13 Analysis/Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 27, 2019
   
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Saturday, November 23, 2019 Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -220 Oklahoma State Rating: 8* Mike's Earlybird Dependable/True Bowl Identifier (WIN) The Mountaineers do come in @ 4-6 SU & still clinging to slim hopes of a post-season bid. I'm afraid they'll be disappointed as Oklahoma State & T.C.U. are too formidable for them. West Virginia is still buzzing over their 24-20 upset victory @ Kansas State last week. I question their focus here. I love the fact that the bettors have are still under-estimating the Cowboys where they rank them @ 32 but the power ratings have them 8 notches higher @ 24. In comparison, WVU is quite a distance away in the power ranking @ 69. My bottom line points out that even though 1st-year HC Neal Brown made a good switch inserting Bowling Green transfer QB Jarret Doege (3/0 TD/INT ratio) last week, the gap in total offense has Mike Gundy's crew chiming in @ 9th in the country compared to West Virginia's 113th. Solidifying this pick points out that this series has seen OSU cover 4 straight as well as seeing Morgantown's Finest post a declining 7-23-2 record against the number versus teams with a winning road record. Three weeks back, the Cowboys last road game saw them go up to Ames & shock the Cyclones on homecoming weekend 34-27 as 11-point dogs. O'h we're ready! Let's go to Mountaineer Field in Morgantown to play the 7-3 SU & bowl-bound OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS as my Earlybird/Dependable True Bowl Identifier! Boston College vs. Notre Dame (NCAAF) - 2:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 21/-110 Boston College Rating: 8* Mike's Ugly Pig CFB Game Of The Week (LOSS) Notre Dame does come in with a little head of steam @ 8-2 SU off a 52-20 pasting of the Midshipmen of Navy. However, we've seen an immediate decline in production the week after the Fighting Irish score 50 or more. After an earlier 66-14 win over New Mexico, the next game saw them lose outright to Georgia 23-17. When they shut out Bowling Green 55-0, the following was another nail-biter as they nipped U.S.C. 30-27. Despite ND's 36 PPG output & 55th ranking in total offense, it's Boston College's ranking of 12th in total offense & 34 PPG that sounds just as impressive. Remember, BC is NOT bowl-eligible yet @ 5-5 SU. They're playing for the post-season even more since their trip to the First Responder Bowl against Boise State was cancelled last year. Let's crunch some serious numbers. There's something to be said about ND after a Navy game. Immediately following the past 15 bouts with Navy, Brian Kelly & his Fighting Irish have been ATS no-shows going a ticket-ripping 4-11. Boston College is 4-0 ATS off a SU loss, 16-5 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning home record AND 5-2 ATS the last 7 in this series. The betting public tends to push the number against ND as they've fallen consistently versus the number in the month of November @ 7-16-1. The past 15 games of this series has seen the Fighting Irish win more than 19 once. HC Steve Addazio has been very successful in the dog role @ 11-3-2 ATS. Let's swing over to Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend to play the BOSTON COLLEGE GOLDEN EAGLES (buying to 22 1/2) as my Ugly Pig CFB Game Of The Week! Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State (NCAAF) - 3:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1.5/-105 Georgia Southern Rating: 9* Mike's Sun Belt Eliminator (LOSS) Both of these teams come in with like records @ 6-4 SU overall & 4-2 SU in the Sun Belt Conference. Georgia Southern sits 1 game behind Appalachian State in the East Division while Arkansas State is currently minus a game behind West Division front-runner Louisiana-Lafayette. The Eagles under HC Chad Lunsford are ranked 12th in rushing offense & now take on a porous Red Wolves' rushing "D" that's ranked 111th, 120th versus the pass as well as 124th in total defense. In comparison, GSU ranks 54th in total "D" & are responsible for giving 9-1 SU Appalachian State their lone defeat with a 24-21 upset 3 games ago @ Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, NC. My bottom line says we'll gladly side with the better defensive team that's a proven commodity on the road. get pumped as we go to Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro to play the GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES as my Sun Belt Eliminator! Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-105 Pittsburgh Rating: 8* ACC Coastal Division Eliminator Play (LOSS) Both of these offenses have blended into mediocrity with Virginia Tech holding a slight scoring edge. But while all the attention is given to the job VT DC Bud Foster (this is his final home game after 25 years here) has done (44th in total "D"), it's actually 2nd-year DC Randy Bates who gets the accolades with his charges (ranks 1st in sacks with 42) ranking an impressive 11th in total "D" coming in. That Pitt defense travelled to Penn State & held that potent PSU offense to 17 while also holding Miami (Fla.) to just 16 on the road (both close losses). I believe we have a situational edge here as the Gobblers (formerly VPI-Virginia Polytechnical Institute) have a big game with hated rival Virginia immediately on deck. My bottom line says numbers clearly show that defending ACC Coastal Division champ Pitt have a strong QB in Kenny Pickett (22 TD passes) who could definitely trade points with VT QB Hendon Hooker who has turned a slow 2-2 start into their current 7-3 SU record. These 2 are hard to separate as both HC's (Justin Fuente & Pat Narduzzi) want this game badly. Let's take advantage of the situation as we go to Lane Stadium in Blacksburg to play the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my ACC Coastal Division Eliminator Play! Texas vs. Baylor (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5/-105 Texas Rating: 9* Mike's 9 Star Big 12 Game Of The Week (LOSS) The mushes are QUICK to point out that Baylor is an offensive juggernaut! However, further examination reveals Texas out-nipping Baylor in scoring 36 to 35 PPG as well as in total offense with the Longhorns ranking 20th & the Bears down the line @ 35th. There's some situations edges here we just can't ignore. For starters, Baylor has been burning the midnight oil lately with tough games against Oklahoma & T.C.U. in back-to-back weeks heading in. They've played 4 out of their last 5 games within 1 TD or less & have went 5 extra sessions to date. It was a big letdown last week after they blew a 28-3 2nd-quarter lead to Oklahoma last week only to edged @ the siren 34-31. Yes, I love what HC Matt Rhule has done with the Bears this season (9-1 SU) but numbers show Texas HC Tom Herman is a proven commodity in the dog role going a see-you-at-the-window 15-4 ATS. In fact, the last 30 games involving the Longhorns have seen the cover go to the dog 22 times. My bottom line says the odds-makers tend to over-rate Baylor after an ATS. In this situation, the Bears have failed to cover 9 of 13. Solidifying this game points out Texas being 4-1 ATS on the road the last 5 as well as a respectful 7-3 versus the number @ this venue. We're marching on down to the Hellas Matrix Artificial Turf @ McLane Stadium in Waco to play the TEXAS LONGHORNS (buying to a KEY + 7 1/2) as my 9 Star Big 12 Game Of The Week! Kansas State vs. Texas Tech (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -135 Texas Tech Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play (LOSS) The Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-6 SU) have had their share of hard luck against stiff competition this season with a 33-30 loss @ Baylor & a narrow 33-31 defeat @ the hands of T.C.U. last week. HC Matt Wells can still make the post-season with wins this week & next Friday @ Texas. What stands out for the Techsters have to be an under-valued 4-0-1 ATS record @ home this season. Momentum is not on the Wildcats' side here as they come in losers of 2 straight. My bottom line says the Red Raiders are vastly improved as QB Jeff Duffey threw for 33 yards & 4 TD passes in their narrow loss to the Horned Frogs last week. With the Air Raid on revival (ranking 16th in total offense), we'll go to Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock & side with the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS as my 8 * CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play! Mike Handzelek's 2019 CFB Week 13 Record: 1-5 for 17%? Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 29-25 for 54%
 


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