Scoring is way down in college basketball this year. Remember, last year the new hand check rule was put into place and that meant a lot of free throws. The rules have been changed a bit to lessen the impact of that foul. In addition, there have been a lot more charging calls this year, which obviously hurts scoring. Finally, the tempo has slowed down quite a bit. The average tempo that teams are playing at through the first couple months is just 66 possessions per game, which is a couple possessions per game lower than two years ago.
How should you adjust the way you bet based on the new normal of lower scoring games in college basketball?
1. Look for Opportunities to back underdogs who play good defense- If you can find underdogs who play good defense and grab quite a few points, they might not have to be very good on the offensive end to cover the number. So many teams are slowing down the game to the point that teams in the 40's and 50's have been covering as underdogs this season.
2. Consider the Under More Often When Playing Totals- The under has cashed in almost 52% of the time so far this year. Oddsmakers will obviously adjust to the slower tempo and less defensive fouls, but the public is always going to want to back the over, which gives you more value on the under. Some of these lines can be inflated by several points, so in the right situation an under play is warranted.
3. Place More Emphasis on Situational Handicapping- Some bettors don't consider situational handicapping nearly as much as they should when it comes to college basketball. These are college athletes who aren't able to bring their best effort on a nightly basis. If you see a team is playing their second game in three days in a tough environment on the road, be prepared to fire away.
Lower scoring is here to stay, and in conference play scoring often goes down even more. Don't be the one who is behind the curve here. Change the way you wager on college basketball.
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Paul Chirimbes |
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