No. 1 San Francisco Giants Under 85.5 -115
The Giants benefited from career years by aging stars Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford last season. Busty Posey retired and a major regression is in store for this Giants team. The Dodgers and Padres figure to be really good once again. The Diamondbacks and Rockies will playing all year with revenge against the Giants. They stay relatively healthy in their rotation and that doesn't always work out two years in a row. PECOTA projects 77.8 wins. My models have it closer to 80. Lots of wiggle room. Either way, it's my favorite Over/Under play for 2022.
No. 2 LA Angels Over 84 -110
I can't believe how low this is considering the rest of the division will be top heavy with the Astros. The Angels have not won 85 games since 2015. They have the two favorites to win the AL MVP and added Noah Syndergaard to their rotation. He fits nicely right behind Ohtani and Reid Detmers is a nice prospect who doesn't have a rotation spot right now. Good problem to have. Detmers would have made my list if he was penciled in as the 5th starter. He's listed as the 6th starter. My point, the Angles have an improved pitching staff and they should have no trouble scoring runs. They need to stay relatively healthy and a playoff appearance just might happen. PECOTA projects 88.4 wins. I have it at 89, and really like this team going forward!
No. 3 LA Dodgers Over 97.5 -115
This one seems too easy. In the past four full seasons (not counting pandemic), the LA dodgers have averaged 102 victories. You might say, they are not as deep as last year. True, but the Dodgers have deep pockets and always make the deadline deal (taking on salary) that improves their chances of winning. That's what you want when betting Over season win totals. The Dodgers have a rich farm system still and can tap into that market at any time. The Dodgers offense should be sick! You will see some new young faces on this Dodgers' team that will contribute to at least 99 wins. PECOTA projects 101.
wins. This is a blue chip stock. Go Over 97.5!
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