If you're trying to get down on the closeout game of the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers, you're likely betting on an absolute beatdown. In three straight games, the Miami Heat have covered the line, and it's gone over the total in only two of the three contests.

With a line set at seven and a total hung around 216.5, this is a contest that will get a lot of eyeballs from those sports experts looking to cash in on the sweep. Being down 3-0 in an NBA playoff series is essentially game over for anyone involved, and without a doubt, the same can be said for the Indiana Pacers, who have looked absolutely abysmal in their showings on the court.

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So far, throughout the league, no series has looked particularly shocking in its result as all of the opening-game shockers, such as the Orlando Magic winning straight up or the Portland Trail Blazers stunning the Lakers, have now lost two games in a row. For the likes of the Pacers, they are yet another hopeless underdog that looks like it's just waiting until the inevitable happens.

Don't expect any surprises in this write-up. Just expect a stone-cold winner.

Don't Overthink It

Here's the biggest issue with people that bet trends. They think for every single game that the line is set to psyche out betters. The truth is, lines are set with a specific purpose.

Bookmakers are trying to get equal action on both sides. This is due in large part to the fact that NBA bettors assume that bookmakers are creating traps or setting lines to portend a certain result.

There are times when lines tell the story, but in most contexts, there are statistical factors that result in the initial set line. Then, of course, bettors placing money on certain sides will drive the line in one way or the other. Regardless, the biggest mistake bettors often make involves reading way too much into a line.

Plain and simple: Don't read too much into a line. When that happens, bad things happen, and as a result, bettors often bet into losers. We know this and is why we are going in this direction for this free pick.

This series is over. Let me repeat: This series is over.

The Pacers are unable to stop the Miami Heat's vicious passing game, and now that they know they're bleeding out in the water, the Heat are swarming sharks ready to finish them off.

Here's why you should take the Miami Heat -7 or the under 216.5.

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Bet the Quit

With the series essentially over, the Pacers are going to quit at some point on the floor. They're going to get sick of defending the closeouts and the absurd passing. 

Even without Jimmy Butler having a ridiculous night, the Pacers have realized that they simply cannot keep up with the team effort of the Heat in comparison to their largely isolation-focused offense.

They will not be able to compete, and as a result, a blowout is likely, but the only question is when it will happen.

Miami in a blowout, 109-86, the chalk covers, and the total stays under.