Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Bearcats are headed to Memphis to take on the Tigers in a battle for supremacy in the G5 battle for a top-end New Year’s 6 bowl game. While this game is likely more important for Memphis due to the conference standings, this game would likely get a quality win on the board for the Bearcats while also making their conference championship game much easier. The Tigers must win this game to guarantee a spot in the AAC championship game in a rematch with the Bearcats.

Bearcats Seeking 10th Straight

Cincinnati has won 9 straight games after losing 42-0 to Ohio State early in the season, but their schedule has not been smooth sailing, even against lesser opponents. The Bearcats have won 3 of their last 4 games by 3 or less points and that is not great. However, they have found a way to beat every single team that they have played with equal or lesser talent.

The Memphis Tigers have also had some close games in recent weeks, but they are not quite skating through like the Bearcats have. Some of this does have to do with the pace of the games that these teams tend to play, which is something we will get into later.

On the offensive side of the ball, these two teams are not super similar in their statistics. Memphis is 7th in the country, averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense this year. Cincinnati is in the mid-80s at 5.4 yards per play. Obviously, this does not look good for the Bearcats. It looks even worse when you look at the defensive side of the ball, where these teams are basically equal in the same statistic. 

The question for me is about the scaling of these teams and how they play against similar competition. Let’s take a look at their 2 common opponents, both of which are solid teams that gave each team a game.

Against Tulsa, Cincinnati averaged 5.03 YPP on offense and 4.38 YPP on defense in a 24-13 win. Memphis averaged a ridiculous 8.44 YPP on offense and 5.878 YPP on defense in a 42-41 win. This game shows me that Memphis has likely struggled more to defend on the year but has made it up in good matchups. They obviously have more offensive firepower than the Bearcats, but they have not been quite as good at capitalizing on their great YPP advantages.

Memphis Concerns

What concerns me for the Tigers is their game against Temple which resulted in their only loss of the season. Memphis lost that game 28-30 and it was their only game, besides a week one slopfest against Ole Miss, where the Tigers have scored less than 35 points. Memphis averaged 6.38 YPP in that game and they allowed 5.36 YPP on defense.

While these numbers are not bad and should result as a win, my biggest concern lies in the fact that Memphis has not been able to capitalize on these stats all season and I think that Cincinnati will be able to move the ball enough to make them win the game. While both teams have been great at winning close games this season, We have seen Cincinnati win close games 46-43 and 17-15. I think that this could be the story of the game for Memphis.

Spread Pick

This number at -11.5 in favor of Memphis is just too big for teams that have shown their ability to win and stay in close games. I expect Memphis to outgain Cincy here and they should look like the team that wins the game, but I think that Cincinnati’s ability to score at a higher clip on a per yard basis will allow them to hang around. I love the Bearcats here and this is a moneyline play at the price as well. Bet Cincinnati as the favorite in this game at our favorite pay her head location at www.PayPerHead247.com

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