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Betting the Second Half Season Total Line

America's Bookie

AmericasBookie Sportsbook/Casino and Horses.

By: America's Bookie
Date: Nov 7, 2018
   
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The first half of this year’s NFL regular season has gone by in a blink of an eye. Week 10’s schedule marks the official kickoff of the race to the NFL playoffs in a quest to win this year’s Super Bowl title. Teams such as the New Orleans Saints in the NFC and the New England Patriots in the AFC has set the first-half pace as frontrunners to meet in Super Bowl LIII, but anything can happen between early November and late January in the actual conference title games.

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Given just how big betting on the NFL has become over the past several years, this league tends to have the sharpest betting lines of any of the major sports. The fact that 32 teams play a limited16-game schedule makes it even tougher to find some solid value in each week’s games. When you add in that there are more than enough facts, stats and betting trends available to break down each and every matchup in the second half of the schedule, successfully betting the pointspread on a regular basis becomes a tricky proposition.

Turning to the league’s betting trends for the first half of the season, the best winning rate against the spread is for road underdogs. They have covered in 52.3 percent of the games played in the first nine weeks. It is hard to call that an edge with an overall record of 45-41-2. Home favorites have won 70.5 percent of the time straight-up when it comes to betting the NFL moneyline, but the overall risk in that type of wager tends to outweigh the reward.

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First half betting trends for the total line has been even tighter with 51.1 percent of the games staying UNDER the closing line. Overall NFL betting trends can make for interesting conversation. However, it still comes down to finding the best value in the individual NFL betting matchups.

For example, the Kansas City Chiefs remain the best betting team in the league at 8-1 SU and ATS in their first nine games. The 1-7 Oakland Raiders have been the best team to go against at 2-6 ATS.

While the value in betting NFL pointspreads continues to get squeezed as the season wears on, there is still some decent value to be found betting the NFL total line. Seven of Tampa Bay’s first eight games have gone OVER despite the fact that the total has closed at 50 points or higher in six of those contests. When it comes to betting the other way, six of Seattle’s first eight games have stayed UNDER.

Moving into the latter part of November, weather can begin to be a factor in many of the northern outdoor venues in the league. Warm city teams playing in cold, northern locals can also be a contributing factor in a game’s total score. Another big factor is mounting injuries at skill positions such as quarterback, wide receiver and running back. Every aspect of a particular matchup needs to be taken into consideration to uncover where the best value on the total line might be.

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Going back to the Chiefs, they remain the highest scoring team in the NFL with 36.3 points per game. They are also ranked 20th on defense when it comes to average points allowed (25.1). The total only has a slight lean towards the OVER at 5-4 because the oddsmakers have already made some early adjustments. After going OVER in Kansas City’s first three games, it has stayed UNDER in four of its last six games with a closing total line of 52 points or higher in five of those six contests.


 

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