by Alan Matthews - 1/26/2011
Is betting on the Super Bowl coin toss one of the most inane bets out there? I certainly think so, but it’s also one of the most popular Super Bowl bets there are (hey, bettors want to start the game off right and reinvest their winnings), and that’s why Bodog has had odds up on the Super Bowl coin toss, for example, since well before the 2010 NFL season even began.
Obviously, the moneyline will be the same for heads or tails no matter what book you go to: BetUS has both listed at -110 while Bodog has it at -105. But don’t go flipping a coin to determine your bet on this Super Bowl prop because, arguably, no prop has been more consistent in recent years than the coin toss. Last year was the 13th consecutive season that the NFC won the coin toss – the offensive-minded Saints won it on heads and chose to receive. The NFC has won it 30 times overall and the AFC 14. The loser of the coin toss, however, has won 10 of the last 14 Super Bowls – including Pittsburgh the last time it was in the big game.
In the 44 previous Super Bowls it has been pretty even which side comes up, with heads coming up 23 times and tails 21 times. And the winner of the coin toss has won 21 Super Bowls and the loser 23 overall. The visiting team gets to make the call and that’s the Steelers this season, who could well become the second team to defer to the second half. The first team to ever defer was the Arizona Cardinals two seasons ago in Tampa (the NFL had just changed the rules allowing teams to defer) when they just so happened to play the Steelers.
It wasn't until Super Bowl XII between the Dallas Cowboys and Denver Broncos that the NFL began honoring its legends during the pregame ceremony. Red Grange was the first honorary coin-tosser. The Cowboys correctly guessed heads and won the game, 27-10. The first 11 Super Bowl coin flips were handled by a game referee. Last year the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2010, led by Jerry Rice, handled the duties.
Could the way the coin-tosser holds the coin be relevant (the honorary tossers for this year’s Super Bowl haven’t been announced as of this writing)? Perhaps. A 2007 study titled "Dynamical Bias In The Coin Flip" and published in the “Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Review” concluded that a coin is more likely to land facing the same side on which it started -- at least 51 percent likelihood but up to as much as 55. So if tails is facing up when the coin is on a person’s thumb, then it’s more likely to come up as tails when flipped and vice versa.
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