This week, we have an NFC South matchup of two teams with a combined record of 8-8. The issue is that the Saints are 7-1 and that the Falcons 1-7 and this game does not look quite as good as it would have before the season started. The Saints are a massive 13-point favorite in this matchup at home vs. their divisional rival.

The Talent Gap

In the NFL, we rarely see a huge gap in the overall talent on these teams and a 13-point line would suggest that this is one of those times. However, if you just glance through the roster of these two teams, I don’t think you would say that there is a 13-point talent gap.

The Saints have a more talented defense as a whole, but Vic Beasley and Deion Jones are both talented football players that require some sort of attention. The secondary on the Falcons is poor, but the play of rookie Kendall Sheffield has been decent based on where he was drafted.

The Saints are more talented than the Falcons, but are they really 13 points better? I don’t think so. Does this mean that I like the Falcons to cover this week? I don’t think so.

Mismatches

The main issue for the Falcons in this game is that the Saints secondary generally makes enough plays throughout the game to limit the passing attack and the running game for the Falcons has been really bad this year. As we have seen recently, even with Matt Schaub, the Falcons want to turn into a pass-happy offense that scores 35 points on 50 pass attempts a game.

Is this sustainable and can they do it in this spot? I don’t think so against a Saints defense that will limit the passing game to some degree. The Saints secondary is nothing to write home about, but we have seen Marshon Lattimore step up against elite opponents. In their final meeting last season, Julio only had 5 for 96 in a game where 80 total points were scored.

The other side of the ball is where I believe that the Falcons will run into real problems. They do not have an answer for the combination of Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara. Both Brees and Kamara are coming off of different injuries, but I am not concerned about their overall well-being for this game.

Brees has missed most of the season with a thumb injury but he returned to action before the bye week throwing the ball all over the Cardinals. Alvin Kamara has been battling an ankle injury, but I expect him to be back after the bye week as the team has been pretty cautious with him over the last month or so since the injury occurred.

Michael Thomas has been healthy every single week for this team and he is putting together a career year after signing a contract that made him the highest paid receiver in the NFL. The most impressive thing about Thomas’s season so far is the fact that he has been the same player both with and without Drew Brees.

A lot of people have failed to give Thomas a ton of credit because he is in an “ideal situation.”

While I would not argue that the Saints offense is an ideal situation, the fact that Thomas maintained an insane catch rate and great overall production without Brees really speaks to his talent.

Spread Pick

I have to take the Saints in this spot, even though they are -13. The Falcons have more talent than a 1-7 football team, but they have not played up to par this season and the Saints should have no problem picking this team apart on both sides of the ball on their way to an easy win. Bet the Saints -13 over the Falcons at our favorite pay per head site .RealBookies.com.

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