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Mike Handzelek's Week 11 CFB Analysis/Review/Notes/Look-Aheads


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 15, 2018
   
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Saturday, November 10, 2018 Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan (NCAAF) - 3:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-110 Bowling Green Rating: 7* Mike's CFB Earlybird (WIN) Our first game of the betting day looks @ 2 bottom dwellers in the MAC. It's been a struggling year for HC Mike Jinks (3rd-season) going 1-8 SU thus far. With games left @ Akron & home versus Buffalo, I believe the Falcons can match their 2-10 record of last season by taking one to the wire with the offensively-challenged 1-9 SU Chippewas. Eve though the Falcons' "D" does give up points, they're up against a team whose thrown 8 TD passes & 16 interceptions. Combine that with CMU's 5 rushing TD's this season & I think we have something brewing! Bowling Green can score on the road as witnessed by 24 @ Oregon & 36 @ Toledo. I feel the Bee Gees can muster enough points to actually win one @ the wire. Their offense under the direction of QB Jarret Doege (63% completions, 2,285 yards passing) has chimed up 22 TD passes versus just 9 INT's. Doege to WR Scott Miller (860 yards in receptions along with 7 TD's) should be a dangerous combination all afternoon. Let's go to Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mt. Pleasant to play the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS as my CFB Earlybird! Clemson vs. Boston College (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 18.0/-110 Boston College Rating: 8* Mike's Smiling Cobra CFB Play Of The Week (LOSS) Let's not over-react like the mushes & get too caught up on EXACT the Tigers' statistics & lopsided scores. We're well aware of that as well as Clemson jetting out to 9-0 SU for the 3rd time in 4 years. However, it's still & always will be about the NUMBER. HC Dabo Sweeney has his 2nd-ranked squad in position for the 4-team playoff IF they can beat BC, Duke, South Carolina & most-likely Coastal Division winner Pittsburgh. But BEFORE we pencil in the Orange & Purple, they need to get past HC Steve Addazio's Eagles tonight. There's NO DOUBT the Tigers have been hyped up by most & rightly so for their performance over the past 4 weeks. But the "Autumn Wind" (like classic audio from announcer John Facenda describes to perfection) is upon us & this game is far from the homely confines of Memorial Stadium in warm South Carolina. If you want to talk about decent scoring teams, BC has to be in the mix. OC Scot Loeffler has his offense humming to the tune of 37.2 PPG which (if it stands) would topple the Eagles' 84 team QB'd by a player named Doug Flutie. Remember, Boston College returns 10 of 11 offensive starters including X-Factor Sophomore RB A.J. Dillon whose rushed for 897 yards & 8 TD's. those stats would even be more impressive since he missed 2 games due to an ankle injury. The Eagles are playing for the Atlantic Division here which is one of a few important intangibles. Let's look @ a key situation in a system that's been pretty consistent for the past 38 college football seasons when it come to SU undefeated teams. We're going to tighten it further by looking @ these teams since 2000. Here we go! These undefeated SU teams from (Game 10 out) in a (conference road favorite) role of (more than 6 points) off a (SU & ATS win) but also an (ATS win by 6 or more) have covered only 3 of the past 19 times! I'm not done since I have one last tightener. IF this undefeated team (in this same role) won 12 or less games last year AND is facing an above .500 team, they've lost 16 consecutive times ATS. My bottom line says BC has that same physicality that Syracuse has (a team that lost by 4 IN Clemson) & should be ready to strike in the stiff autumn winds of New England. These same Eagles are on a productive 14-3-1 ATS run & have consistently rushed for over 200 yards in 7 of the past 9. Are you ready? Let's motor up to Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill to play the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES as my Smiling Cobra CFB Play Of The Week! NOTES/LOOK-AHEADS: Bowling Green won for us outright to start the afternoon right. However, second-guessing hurt us as we waived buying to + 20 1/2 with BC & played them @ the adjusted line. The Eagles had no clue how to start a running game. They had 33 rushes for 9 yards? Their defense got tired by games-end & we got nipped by the proverbial 2. We we're going to pull the trigger on Cal over U.S.C. but past history (14-game SU losing streak in the series going back to Aaron Rodgers I believe) clearly ruled against it. Cal won outright 15-14. Let's quickly move on to some key games this weekend. Don't miss Notre Dame versus Syracuse @ Yankee Stadium, Duke @ Clemson & Iowa State @ Texas. Be back this Saturday as we're heating up for the college bowls! Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 18-9 for 67%
 


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