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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 6 Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 12, 2020
   
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Saturday, October 10, 2020 Oklahoma vs. Texas (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2/-110 Texas Rating: 9* Mike's 9* CFB Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) This 115th Red River Rivalry game might still bring a pinch of euphoria to those who watch it. However, post-season irrelevance isn't as strong since the Sooners come in 1-2 SU (lost to Kansas State & Iowa State back-to-back) & the Longhorns (2-1 SU) come in fresh off a shocking 33-31 loss to the T.C.U. Horned Frogs. There's rumors already that Boomer Schooner HC Lincoln Riley may leave the comfy atmosphere around Norman & head to the NFL. There's better news for Hook'em Horns' followers as this game will be held @ the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Why is that relevant? Digging in a little deeper reveals Texas has consistently over-achieved odds-makers perceptions as they come in coverers of 7 straight @ this venue. Numbers don't lie & that's especially true of Texas HC Tom Herman. Herman is no slouch as a HC in the underdog role as witnessed by a lights-out 17-5 ATS record (winning 11) & being 11-1 versus the number if against under .875 opponents. In CFB you need a solid QB to contend. Here we have Oklahoma with redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler making his 4th career start (4 INT's this year) versus a 4-year man making his 37th start in Sam Ehlinger whose been dazzling thus far with a nifty 14/2 TD/INT ratio. My bottom line strongly emphasizes that Ehlinger comes in with double-revenge & will come out smoking. He's thrown 122 career passes versus these Sooners without an interception. For this affair, we'll side with the Longhorns who have the better nucleus returning on "D". Making a BIG splash is new DC Chris Ash (formerly HC @ Rutgers but also was Ohio State's DC when they won the 1st College Football Playoff 6 years ago. Ash's group should be starting to settle into his 4-3 defensive scheme that they switched over from last year's 3-4. The last 10 games in this rivalry may have gone to Oklahoma 7 times but Texas covered 7 of those 10. Let's go to Cotton Bowl & play the TEXAS LONGHORNS (buying to our line + 4 1/2) as my 9* CFB Earlybird Dependable! Pittsburgh vs. Boston College (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6/-107 Boston College Rating: 8* Exhausted Traveler Rollover Play (WIN) There was a lot left on that field last week in Pittsburgh's gut-wrenching last-minute 30-29 home loss to North Carolina State. It's now Week 5 & HC Pat Narduzzi's club finally takes it to the road for the 1st time @ Chestnut Hill. Despite 411 passing yards from QB Kenny Pickett, the Panthers were sloppy throughout committing 13 penalties. Yes, Pitt has a talented offense but 1st-year high-energy HC Jeff Hafley (former DC @ Ohio State) has a solid QB in Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec. Jurkovec, in almost pulling out an upset of North Carolina (lost when a 2-pt conversion failed) as a double-digit dog last week, has consistently moved the chains by utilizing TE Hunter Long plus WR's Zay Flowers & Travis Levy to the fullest. Even though the Panthers' "D" remains formidable up front, Jurkovec should be able to take advantage of a weak Pitt secondary that was burned by the Wolfpack last week. My bottom line points out some interesting numbers falling to the advantage of the Eagles. Besides being a near-perfect 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS) in this series if Pitt's off a SU loss, BC has both won & covered ALL 5 in that situation IF listed as the underdog. Speaking of the dog, this series has gone that way in 4 of the last 5 ATS or 80%. Sealing the deal for us has to be how excellent Boston College is versus the number in October the past 5 seasons. The odds-makers have consistently under-estimated their first month as they've come back in Month 2 to the tune of 12-3 ATS or an 80% success rate. We're set & ready to play the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES (buying to + 7 1/2) as my Exhausted Traveler Rollover Play @ Alumni Field in Chestnut Hill! UTEP vs. Louisiana Tech (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 14/-105 UTEP Rating: 8* Mike's 8* CFB Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) The U.T.E.P. (formerly Texas Western) Miners were the doormats of the Conference USA the past 3 seasons compiling a 2-34 SU record overall. It looked like the same old after HC Sean Kugler left in 17' after an 0-12 season then now HC Dana Dimel could only muster a 2-22 slate the past 2 seasons. Dimel came over from Kansas State (under the legendary Bill Snyder) where he coached as TE, RB & OC from 09' to 17'. This season is Year 3 where it looks like Dimel's new system has taken root as the Miners have jetted to a 3-1 SU record. The Sun Bowl's finest have also switched over to a 4-3 scheme under DC Mike Cox to better suit personnel. Now let's take a gander @ HC Skip Holtz & the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech. They've gone 2-1 SU with a narrow 31-30 win over Southern Miss in the opener & a 45-14 blowout loss @ the hands of B.Y.U. last week. My bottom line says the Bulldogs will get their points (hired a new OC in Joe Sloan who replaced Todd Finch-went to Vanderbilt) but last week's loss has also shown the blueprints on how to attack a defense returning just 2 starters for 1st-year DC David Blackwell (replaced Bob Diaco-now @ Purdue). I believe that QB Gavin Hardison & Co. (put up 512 yards last week versus UL-Monroe in a 31-6 win) can put up some numbers with RB & redshirt freshman Deion Hankins (5 TD's) & WR Jacob Cowing (377 receiving yards, 17.1 YPC) to keep this close. Besides weather being a factor, numbers also dictate that Louisiana Tech doesn't embrace the chalk role too well going just 5-9 ATS the past 3 seasons. In this series, it looks like the home team has been over-priced as the traveler has covered the last 4 in a row! Let's go to Ruston's Joe Aillet Stadium to play the U.T.E.P. Miners (buying to (+ 14 1/2) as my 8* CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Florida vs. Texas A&M (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7/-115 Texas A&M Rating: 8* 8* SEC ATS Game Of The Week (WIN) There's a number I had designated & the side before the line came out for this & it's still not that far in reach. I believe the underdog is the way to go here. Here's why. You have 2 teams BOTH in the Top 20. You have a DC in Todd Grantham (came over from Mississippi State with HC Dan Mullen a few years ago) who has his hands full in replacing 7 defenders including his top sack leader (Jonathan Greenard), his leading tackler (David Reese II) & his top cornerback (C.J. Henderson). I feel it's going to be difficult to teach THAT many NEW pieces the 3-4 scheme & have it resonate in less than a month. After taking on Ole Miss (Gators "D" allowed 613 yards) & South Carolina, this "D" is yielding close to 30 PPG & take on a team getting tremendous value after their mismatch @ Alabama last weekend. I'm loving the fact that Florida QB sensation Kyle Trask (10/1 TD/INT ratio) has a distraction in knowing the defending champion L.S.U. is awaiting on deck for a match in Gainesville. My bottom line is this. Even though Florida should get their 30+ points, I believe HC Jimbo Fisher (in a make or break game in this short season) can implement a game plan where QB Kellen Mond can flourish & exploit the vulnerable Florida pass defense enough to keep this a ball game to the end. Last week's A&M score was closer that the final as Mond & Co. put up 450 yards of offense against a legitimate Crimson Tide "D". Numbers strongly indicate a drop off for Florida against the spread after their first 2 games. The past 7 Game 3's have seen these Reptiles cover just 2! Further crunching has ALSO reveals Jimbo Fisher has won all SIX previous games SU where his team is coming off a 17+ point loss. Sealing the deal for us has to be the fact that the Aggies IF a conference home dog taking on an opponent off a win of 14 or more IS a near-perfect 12-1 against the number! Let's go to Kyle Field @ College Station to play the TEXAS A&M AGGIES (buying to + 10 1/2) as my 8* SEC ATS Game Of The Week! Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB Week 6 Record: 3-1 for 75% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 8-2 for 80%
 


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