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Mike Handzelek's Week 7 NFL Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 25, 2017
   
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Monday, October 23, 2017 Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 8:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5.5/-110 Washington Redskins Pick Title: Mike's 9 Star NFL Crescendo Play (LOSS) I've been watching many a Redskins-Eagles intradivisional games over the years. After all those games played in this series, it's been SCARCE & RARE to see 2 blowout double-digit wins by the same team in the same year. This is the 167th meeting between the 2 where the Redskins enjoy the current advantage @ 86-74-6. They 1st played back in 1934 when the then-Boston Redskins squeaked out a 6-0 win @ Fenway Park. It wasn't til' 1937 before the Redskins moved to Washington's Griffith Stadium. However, it's more recent history we're concentrating on here. Since 2004, this series saw the first meeting decided by 10 or more points just 4 times. What followed? In ALL FOUR of those particular second meetings, the winner was decided by down-to-the-wire, single-digits outcomes. I love what QB Carson Wentz (1,584 passing yards, 133 rushing yards, 60.9% completions, 13/3 TD/INT ratio, sacked 16 times, 99.6 QBR) has brought to Philadelphia. However, 6th-year man out of Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins (1,334 passing yards, 103 rushing yards, 66.5% completions, 9/2 TD/INT ratio, sacked 8 times, 106.4 QBR) has also been looking sharp & is a little fresher with his Redskins' bye week just 2 weeks back. They actually looked flat in last week's 26-24 win over win-less San Francisco. But don't be fooled! That was clearly a look-ahead game with their MAJOR focus on tonight's divisional game with revenge versus the Eagles. Even though Washington isn't as healthy as Philly heading in, their defense (12th) still ranks higher overall than the Eagles (19th) even though Philadelphia is #1 in the NFL versus the rush. My bottom line says DON'T EXPECT the Skins' to turn the ball over 4 times again & get a strip-sack TD from Cousins (like in meeting 1). In the numbers support us as Kirk Cousins is 9-3 ATS (7-1 ATS his last 8) as a divisional underdog. Tightening it further is the Redskins being a lights-out 14-2-2 ATS following a home game & is up against a divisional opponent whose just recorded a SU dog win on the road. We'll have to sacrifice a few percentage points with Philly besting Washington 51%-41% on 3rd-down conversions & +9-+5 in possession time. Remember, Washington HC Jay Gruden is a very successful 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS versus these Birds since taking over. Since they have a rough road ahead with Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota & New Orleans on deck, this one they have to get. I feel they will rise to the occasion & play competitive football against a (7th week in a row) Wentz-led offense that holds a 4.4 to 4.1 yard edge per rush. Expect plentiful balls in the air as the Redskins finish on a high note versus an Eagles pass defense that rates just 29th of 32. Let's go to Lincoln Financial Field to play the WASHINGTON REDSKINS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 9 Star NFL Crescendo Play! Sunday, October 22, 2017 New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-117 New York Jets Pick Title: Mike's 9 Star NFL Earlybird (WIN) What? Is QB Jay Cutler (857 passing yards, 61.6% completions,5/4 TD/INT ratio, sacked 10 times, 75.2 QBR) now the savior of the Miami Dolphins? He may be just that for the time being, but not for long. The status quo for the AFC East road teams is that they usually surprise. I feel as well as the Jets that they got slighted against New England @ home. There certainly will be a carry over here. New York strongly feels if they can play the Pats straight up, they have a chance @ the AFC East since New England currently holds the worst-ranked overall defensive (32nd) rank. In fact, look for TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins to make right a TD taken away from him last week because of a so-called lack of possession. DC Kacy Rodgers knows the way to beating Miami (see meeting 1 in NY) is to hurry Jay Cutler & stuff their play-making RB Jay Ajayi. My bottom line says there's too many inconsistencies on the Dolphins' side to take this team serious even after 2 consecutive wins. First, they start off a game way too slow scoring 13 first-half points in their first 5 games. Second, their lack of yardage (they've been out-passed by their opponents 1175 to 777 in 5 games) has shown as they've score 20 or more points once (last week) on their way to averaging just 12 PPG. They now take on an unnoticed 3-3 Jets' team that's getting some very solid play from their QB Josh McCown. Even though he's taken a few sacks (19) in 6 games, McCown has completed over 70% of his passes & has his offense pounding the rock for 4.3 YPR compared to Miami who chimes in @ 3.5. He's keeping New York on the field converting 40% on 3rd down which is heads above Cutler who converts 28.3% in that same category.In the numbers stresses that the Jets have owned Miami going 8-1-1 ATS the last 10 in this series. This fits like a glove since Jay Cutler is notoriously a choker as a home favorite going 14-30-2 for his career! I feel RB Bilal Powell (4.7 YPR) should be ready to go. The dagger for us has to be a Dolphins' squad that has generated a rushing TD this season. It could be a game of turnovers as I like the fact that the NY "D" has 7 INT's versus Miami's "D" which has just 1! Let's go to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens to play the NEW YORK JETS (buying to a key + 4 1/2 @ -157) as my 9 Star NFL Earlybird! New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.0/-110 Green Bay Packers Pick Title: 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week (LOSS) Don't under-estimate home field advantage when it comes to Green Bay! Lambeau Field without question is one of the toughest of outdoor venues in the NFL. Yes, Aaron Rodgers will be out some 2+ months. However, the odds-makers have over-compensated for his absence. For this matchup, we have a healthier front line, secondary & QB edge all on the Saints' side. But don't sell 3rd-year backup QB Brett Hundley short. Unlike last week when he threw 3 INT's & got sacked 4 times versus a Top 5 defense like Minnesota's, he'll face an overall 26th-ranked & 28th-ranked pass defense of New Orleans. I've been using a pretty good exhaustion formula for decades & it fits like a glove to PLAY AGAINST the Saints ATS. New Orleans appears to have it rolling @ 3-2 & come off a 52-point performance versus Detroit. Remember, the Lions out-passed them by close to 100 yards but turned the ball over 5 times! My bottom line says that the Packers should have been close to 7-point favorites here IF Rodgers was starting. I feel an adjustment of 11 1/2 points pushes the number out of whack. The Saints also had just as many turnovers last week as Green Bay. The Packers will certainly be playing smash-mouth football & control the line of scrimmage today. There's not too much that separates these teams to warrant any number higher than 3. The crowd will be JUICED! HOF & 2-time Super Bowl winning QB Bart Starr will be on hand today to celebrate the 50th anniversary of their Ice Bowl win over Dallas. Let's go to historical Lambeau Field to play the GREEN BAY PACKERS (buying to + 4 1/2 @ -130) as my 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week! Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -141 Carolina Panthers Pick Title: 9 Star NFC Bounce-Backer (LOSS) We already got fooled earlier this season when it appeared QB Cam Newton was having arm problems. We won't make that same mistake again. The biggest booster shot for his chances of going back to the Super Bowl has to be when Rodgers broke his collarbone last week. His focus has been sharp in situations when they are playing a non-divisional game AND coming off a SU loss. The past 5 times this has happened have seen the Panthers cash all 5 @ the window! Carolina may be without their defensive QB in MLB Luke Keuchly (in concussion protocol), but their 4th-ranked defense still has playmakers including a rejuvenated RDE in 16th-year Julius Peppers who leads the team with 6 1/2 sacks their first 6 games. On the flip side of the coin, the Panthers' offense may get another BIG BOOST since Pro-Bowl C Ryan Kalil is due to return back to the offensive line for the 1st time since he went down with a neck injury way back in Week 2 versus Buffalo. My bottom line says Carolina HC Ron Rivera is eager to erase the razzing he's been taking in going 1-2 SU thus far against his former team as well as not finishing versus Philly last Thursday. I love the fact that the southerners are playing with added rest versus a team who come off an OT game. Look for the Carolina secondary to bait Chicago rookie QB Mitch Trubisky (still learning the system) into mistakes by forcing to air it out 30-40 times. I feel that 27-24 OT win @ Baltimore took a lot out of the Bears who forced a career-high 36 carries from RB Jordan Howard who won the game with a 53-yard run from scrimmage. Our dagger here has to be the way Cam Newton has played away from home. He's a lights-out 3-0 SU on the road, has a 122.9 QBR traveling & has a defense that's giving up 19 PPG on the road in beating San Francisco, New England & Detroit thus far. Look for X-Factor rookie RB Christian McCaffrey to make some big plays in keeping pace with being the Panthers' top receiver with 37 receptions good for 293 receiving yards & 2 TD's. In the numbers points out that the away team in Carolina games has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS! This fits nicely with today's homer being a no-show 6-18-1 ATS versus .500 or greater teams coming off a home game. Let's jaunt to the home of "The Monsters Of The Midway" Soldier Field to play the fresher CAROLINA PANTHERS to win this one SU as my 9 Star NFC Bounce-Backer! Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -158 Jacksonville Jaguars Pick Title: 9 Star Headliner Moneyliner (WIN) ---- Take the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS on the ML as their 9th-ranked defense baits QB Jacoby Brissett into making mistakes & should set up QB Blake Bortles & RB Chris Ivory with great field position most of the game. Remember, the Colts are 2 FG's away from being 0-6 SU like the 49ers. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-110 Cincinnati Bengals Pick Title: 9 Star AFC North Battle For Supremacy Play (LOSS) I'm looking for A.J. Green to continue to thrive in OC Bill Lazor's & Cincinnati 2nd-ranked defense under Paul Guenther to thrive with 2 weeks prep time taking on a taxed Steelers' team who left it all on the field in their upset win @ KC. Roethlisberger is 1-5 ATS in his career as a favorite versus rested sub-.500 opponents AND has also lost 5 of 6 times versus the number as a home favorite off a SU dog win. Play the CINCINNATI BENGALS as my 9 Star AFC North battle For Supremacy Play (buying to right @ + 7 1/2 -190)!-------------------------------- Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -270 Dallas Cowboys Pick Title: 8 Star Public "Missed Perception" Play Of The Week (WIN) It appears that the majority of mushes think that San Francisco 49ers & new HC Kyle Shanahan are so close to their 1st win they can taste it! Not really. This team laid the meaningful blueprints for the 2-weeks rested Dallas defense to bait rookie QB C.J. Beathard into mistakes. Look for the Cowboys to be focused on the "W" without the look-ahead to rival Washington on-deck. We have a Top-10 offense (still good) against a defense that struggles (28th) with the 49ers. I look for the Cowboys to employ that same successful game plan that Carolina used @ SF opening day for a comfortable win. Let's take the DALLAS COWBOYS to get a signature road win to stay close to Philly as my 8 Star Public "Missed Perception" Play Of The Week! NOTES: Still befuddled how Cam Newton can fluctuate from week to week? This was one our first under .500 (3-4) signature week in quite awhile. Teams picked this week seemed NOT to make too many halftime adjustments after taking an ATS lead for us after 2 quarters. We should be adjusting our formula more toward good turnover ratio teams that are consistently rushing for 100 yards or more that have a defense that holds opponents way under 100. Adding to that mix a team holding both momentum, situational advantages & without major chemistry changes. We'll push toward that coveted 60 percentile the next few weeks. Look out! 2017-18 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 21-18-----54%
 


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