Reason: I'm playing on Winnipeg and Florida to finish UNDER the total. We have to lay some extra juice to play at 'under 5.5' goals here. However, I feel the price will prove to be well worth it. The Panthers won 4-2 last time out, a home win over Washington. However, that game could have easily been lower-scoring. Not only was it scoreless into the second period, it was still 1-1 into the third. The final goal was of the empty net variety. That'll happen sometimes. However, more often than not, games here are low-scoring. Even with that result, the UNDER remains a healthy 12-7-5 in Panther home games. The five "pushes" are significant, as they were all games that had O/U lines of five and finished with five goals. In other words, seventeen of 24 games here have produced five or fewer goals. That translates to 71%, which makes laying a little extra juice for the 5.5 seem a little more palatable. Only five of the last 15 games here (and one of the last seven) have produced more than five goals. Winnipeg is off a 2-1 win at Tampa Bay last night. The Jets have now seen the UNDER go 8-2 their last 10 games and 4-0 their last four. Those four games had scores of 2-1, 3-0, 2-1 and 2-1. The UNDER is an extremely profitable 31-11-5 the last 47 times that the Panthers were off a game in which they scored four or more goals. I expect another low-scoring affair. *10

Reason: I'm playing on LA and Denver to finish OVER the total. I won with the Nuggets 'under' the total last night. However, that was a game at LA (vs. the Clippers) and we were working with a much higher O/U number. With tonight's game being played at Denver, I feel the much lower O/U number has now caused the value to shift the other way. Games here at Denver are averaging 200.3 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers have been playing much higher-scoring games at home than they have been on the road. The Laker offense has scored nearly the same number of points at home as away. However, the LA defense hasn't been nearly as good on the road. Indeed, the Lakers are allowing a mere 85.2 points at home but a whopping 98.4 points per game on the road. At home, the LA defense ranks fourth best in the NBA, #1 in the West. However, the LA "away defense" ranks only 19th in the league. With this jam-packed schedule, its important to see how teams have reacted to various scheduling situations this season, as scheduling angles/trends from past seasons aren't necessarily applicable any longer. In this case, the Lakers are coming off a rare two-day break. The OVER is 2-1 when they've been in that situation so far this season, including 2-0 the last two. The Lakers have played on the road twice, after having the previous two day's off, and they gave up 98 and 100 points in those games. So, the break hasn't helped their "road defense." Having had a couple of day's off and knowing the Nuggets are in a b2b spot, the Lakers should be willing to push the tempo a bit more than normal. As for the Nuggets, they've seen the OVER go 3-0 over the last month, when playing the second of back to back games. Those three games produced 233, 212 and 238 points. Five of the Lakers last eight games here have produced a minimum of 200 points. I expect this one to do the same. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. Its true that the Nets are a little short-handed right now. However, that hasn't stopped them from playing well. Having had last night off, they got a bit of rest, which should serve them well. Getting a handful of points at home, with a line which has climbed from its opener, I believe they're providing us with excellent value. The T-Wolves are an exciting young team and they're clearly improved from recent seasons. They've also played well on the road. That said, I don't feel they're ready to be laying this many points in a game away from Minnesota. Even with a couple of recent wins, note that they've still only won five of their last 20 road games. Also, note the the T-Wolves are just 3-6 ATS on the season when laying points. That includes a 0-4 ATS mark their last four as favorites. While the T-Wolves lost by 10 last time out, the Nets are off a victory. In fact, they've won three of their last five, including a win at Philadelphia. After a slow start here, they've now also won three of their last five here at home. Going back a bit further finds New Jersey at a profitable 8-6 ATS its last 14 overall. The Nets do have a divisional game against the Knicks tomorrow. However, that's also the case for the T-Wolves as they'll face Houston (for the third time) tomorrow. The Nets have won five of the last six home meetings with the T-Wolves and the lone loss came by only four points. Five of those six games were decided by eight or fewer points and four of them were decided by four or less. Last year's meeting here saw the Nets win by a score of 107-105. This one could easily again come down to the wire and I'm grabbing all those generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on LOYOLA CHICAGO. The Vikings are at the top of the conference. The Ramblers are at the bottom. That's reflected in the pointspread, as Cleveland State is laying double-digits. With all due respect to the Vikings, who are indeed a very good team, I believe that's asking too much of them. The Ramblers have payback on their minds as they were embarrassed 69-48 at Cleveland State. Note that they were +14 for that game. They're not quite as big an underdog here. However, they're still getting double-digits. Given how the Ramblers played last game here and given how the Vikings have fared on the road of late, I feel that's providing excellent value. Cleveland State did win big at Youngstown State last time on the road. However, prior to that, the Vikings had lost two of four on the road and the two wins both came by single-digits. In fact, going back to December 1st, the Viking have only won one road game (out of eight tries) by more than eight points. Given that the Vikings won by only four points at Robert Morris (a game that didn't even have a line) a blowout win on the road is never a guarantee for them, regardless of the opponent. In their last game here, the Ramblers lost by only six vs. Butler. They've quietly gone 3-0 ATS their last three games overall. They're also a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. A win against the top team in the conference would really make their season and I look for the Ramblers to go all out to get it. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OTTAWA. Off three straight losses, the Senators should be extremely hungry here. They hardly played any home games in January, so should be happy to start February here in Ottawa. The Sens are a solid 14-10 here on the season. That's far better than the Isles 9-14 mark on the road. Even with a win at Carolina last time out, note that the Isles are still being outscored by an average score of 3.3 to 2.3 when playing away from Long Island. Both teams have had the past couple of day's off. That figures to work to Ottawa's advantage. For starters, the Sens were on a losing streak. So, the break came at a nice time. Also, although the trip began well before the All-Star Break, this is their first game back from a road trip. So, its nice to have a couple of days off to get "re-settled." Perhaps most importantly, the Sens have excelled when playing with two day's rest as they're 27-14 (+15.4) in that situation the past few seasons. While the Isles are 9-15 (-2.2) against winning teams, the Sens are 12-9 (+3.4) against losing teams. Throw in the fact that the Sens are 12-3, with one tie, the last 16 times that they were a host in this series and the price is reasonable. I expect a highly motivated effort from the Sens and look for them to pick up the important two points. *7

Reason: I'm playing on TORONTO. Both these teams have issues. Neither have been good. The Raptors have been better though. They're 7-16. The Wizards are just 4-18. Throw in that the Raptors are playing at home AND that they're playing with "revenge" from a blowout loss at Washington and I expect the Raptors to be the team which comes away with "much needed" victory. Perhaps most important is the fact that the Raptors were embarrassed last time out and as a result, I expect them to be extremely motivated here. After an ugly loss last time out, Toronto coach Dwane Casey had this to say: "We are going to practice Thursday. I mean there is no doubt about it after an exhibition like that. We owe it to the city of Toronto, our organization and ourselves." Casey went on to say: "I told the team 'for the rest of your basketball career, remember how this feels tonight,' I can’t remember getting beat by 36 points and it's the worst taste you feel, and that's something you don't want to forget." Its true that the Raptors have struggled without Bargnani, who appears unlikely to be ready again. They're determined to show that they can win without him though. As indicated by Casey, they're also determined to bounce back from some recent ugly losses. The Wizards should represent the perfect opponent to help them get back on track. Not only have the Raptors dominated the Wizards here at Toronto but the Wizards are only 1-9 on the road this season. The lone victory came at Charlotte. At 3-20, the Bobcats are currently the worst team in the league. The Raptors were beaten soundly (93-78) by the Wizards on January 10. That was at Washington though, where they're now 0-3 their last three. Games here at Toronto have been a different story. The Raptors are 3-0 the last three meetings here. Those three victories came by an average margin of 11 points, each coming by a minimum of five points. Determined to bounce back, I expect the revenge-minded Raptors to win by at least that many once again. *9

Reason: I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Jets are off back to back road wins. After a 2-1 win at Philadelphia on 1/31, they won 2-1 at TB last night. That puts them in a back to back spot here. That situation hasn't been kind to them this season. Check it out. The Jets are an awful 0-8 when playing the second of b2b games. The games haven't been close either. Last time in that situation, they lost 3-0. Prior to that, they lost by a score of 5-1. Prior to that it was a 4-0 loss which was preceded by a 4-1 setback. Before that, they lost 7-1. The three before that resulted in 4-2, 3-0 and 4-1 losses. Add it up and they've lost those eight games by a combined score of 34-6! The Panthers had last night off, after beating Washington the previous night. They're 9-5 (+3.7) against teams with a losing record this season, including 2-1 against the Jets. Given Winnipeg's history when playing the second of back to back games, the Panthers should improve on those stats this evening. *7