I'm playing on UTAH. The Jazz were laying -4 or -5 (depending on when and where one played) for Game 3 here and they won by five. With the popular opinion being that the Lakers can't possibly lose two in a row, we're now getting a significantly lower line on the Jazz, to the point where a SU victory has a very strong chance of also resulting in a pointspread victory. I feel that offers us excellent value with a Jazz team which had the best homecourt record (37-4) in the entire league this season and which is now 40-5 here including playoff games. Note that the Jazz are also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the last five times they were listed as home favorites of four points or less. Yes, the Lakers should be more determined than they were for Game 3. However, that doesn't mean that they'll be able to beat a Utah team which is now more confident than ever. The Jazz outshot and outrebounded the Lakers in Game 3, while controlling the paint. As Carlos Boozer, who had 27 points and 20 rebounds on Friday, had to say: "Now we know that we can beat this team. We know what the formula is for winning and we have to duplicate that..." Look for Boozer and co. to do just that, sending things back to LA tied up at 2-2.

I'm playing on the Spurs and Hornets to finish UNDER the total. As a result of a high-scoring game on Thursday, we're now getting several extra points to work with which, in my opinion, has provided us with outstanding value on the UNDER. Just because Game 3 is high-scoring, doesn't mean that Game 4 will be. In fact, the opposite is often the case. We only need to look back at the Spurs opening round series for an example. The Spurs and Suns combined for 214 points in Game 3, finishing well above the total of 196.5. Expecting another high-scoring affair, the bettors jumped on the 'over' for Game 4, causing the total to climb above the 200 mark. Yet, the teams combined for 'only' 191 points, falling well below the inflated number. Yesterday's game from the Detroit/Orlando series provides another excellent example. The Pistons and Magic combined for 197 points in Game 3, causing the Game 4 total to climb slightly. Yet, Game 4 resulted in a defensive battle with only 179 total combined points scored. The fact that the Spurs won Game 3 is noteworthy as the Hornets have seen the UNDER go an impressive 27-12 this season when facing a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. Note that the UNDER is also 5-2 when the Hornets have been listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. Thursday's result notwithstanding, the Spurs have still seen the UNDER go 15-7 the last 22 times that they were trailing in a playoff series. Look for both teams to clamp down defensively and for the final combined score to stay well beneath the generous number. *Western Conference Total of the Year

I'm laying the price with KANSAS CITY. It's true that the Orioles have the better record and it's also true that they have dominated this series. Indeed, last night's 6-5 win brought them to 12-0 their last 12 games against the Royals. However, there are several reasons why I believe that the Royals will snap that streak and avoid getting swept. While the Orioles have been the much better team underneath the lights, the Royals have been significantly better during the afternoon. KC is 7-6 (+3.4) in day games. Baltimore is 3-9 (-5.6) in day games this season and a money-burning 42-68 (-21.5) since 2006. Speaking of the difference between night and day, Bannister is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three daytime starts. He has averaged seven complete innings per start in those games while holding opposing hitters to a mere .143 average. In his four nighttime starts, however, he has gone 0-4 with a 8.02 ERA. He's averaged less than 5 1/2 innings in those starts and opposing hitters are batting .344. Unlike Bannister, Burres has been much better when pitching at night than he has been during the day, as he ERA is more than a run higher when he's pitched in the afternoon. Burres won three of his first four starts, but they all came with extra rest. Now that he is pitching on regular rest, he hasn't been as sharp and has lost each of his last two starts. While the Royals have won three of their five Sunday games this season, the Orioles are 0-4 the last four times they played on a Sunday and 2-10 their last 12. Playing the final game of a 10-game road trip, look for the Orioles' "Sunday woes" to continue for another week. *Personal Favorite

I'm laying the price with MILWAUKEE. I don't have to look at the 'consensus sites' to predict that the majority of the betting public will be backing St. Louis this afternoon. After all, what's not to like? The Cards won yesterday. They've got the better record and their starting pitcher brings the better stats into today's game. I tend to see things rather differently than the majority though and I believe that one has to 'dig a little deeper' in order to get a true picture of things. Let's take a closer look. Yes, Looper has the better overall record. However, he hasn't been as good on the road as he has been at home and the Cards are just 5-8 his last 13 road starts, dating back to last season. It should also be noted that the Cards lost Looper's two starts here at Milwaukee by a combined score of 21-3 with Looper giving up 12 earned runs in 10 innings for a 10.80 ERA. Additionally, as I've repeatedly pointed out, most recently when I successfully played against the Brewers on 4/30, Suppan is great at home but stinks on the road. He lost that 4/30 game by a score of 19-5 and has a 7.36 ERA in five road starts overall. On the other hand, he's got a stellar 1.29 ERA in his two home starts. While that's a pretty small sample size, that's been the pattern for Suppan for several years now. Last season, he was 9-3 with a 3.87 ERA at home but 3-9 with a 5.38 ERA on the road. In 2006, he was 5-5 with a 5.36 ERA on the road but 7-2 with a stellar 3.18 ERA at home. Clearly, this man likes his home cooking. Not surprisingly, the Brewers are 8-12 in Suppan's last 20 road starts but 14-6 his last 20 at home. It should also be noted that Suppan has been significantly better during the day than he has been underneath the lights. Like Suppan, the entire Milwaukee team plays better at home. Even with a loss yesterday, the Brewers are still a healthy 107-70 here since 2006. They're also still 8-6 the last 14 times they were a host in this series and a solid 10-5 in their afternoon games this season. Suppan's teams are a perfect 5-0 his last five starts against the Cardinals. Suppan has allowed three earned runs or less in ALL five of those starts while recording a miniscule 1.69 ERA. That includes a 7-1 win and a 9-1 win (vs. Looper), both here at Milwaukee last season, in his most recent two starts in the series. Another 'blowout' win for the Brewers won't come as a surprise. *NL Blowout GOW

I'm playing on DETROIT. After the Tigers won Game 1 of this series on Friday, the Yankees returned the favor with a victory in yesterday's game. A closer look at those two games shows that Friday's game featured a pair of left-handed starters, while Saturday's featured a pair of right-handers. The fact that the Tigers won the 'all southpaw' matchup should come as no surprise. The Tigers are now 5-0 their last five games vs. left-handers and 9-2 their last 11. This season, they're averaging a whopping seven runs per game vs. southpaws while hitting an extremely healthy .319 with an on-base-percentage of .402. Conversely, the Yankees are hitting just .246 against southpaws with an obp of only .302 while averaging a paltry 3.3 runs in going 4-6. That's worth mentioning, as today's matchup features another pair of left-handers. Note that Pettitte already lost vs. the Tigers this season and Robertson already beat the Yankees. Including the earlier win over Pettitte, the Tigers are a highly profitable 68-36 (+26.6) against southpaws the past three seasons. Look for them to build on those stats this afternoon, as the Yankees fall to 1-7 their last eight road games which had an over/under line of either 10 or 10.5.