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Bryan Leonard Oct 27, 2008

We all look at matchups and stats when assessing point spreads and potential winning angles. Another area most noticeable in college sports is emotion. Sometimes things happen on and off the field that can affect a team's attitude. Rivalry games, bounce-back spots, homecoming and revenge situations are several situations to keep close tabs on.

For instance, this past weekend Northern Illi ... read more

Statistical Illusions

Bryan Leonard Oct 22, 2008

That watering hole the caravan driver sees on the horizon turns out to be blazing hot sand. The beautiful girl across the room turns out to be far less so as you get closer. Our eyes can play tricks with our mind as there are mirages all over. The Detroit Lions nearly won their first game, in a crushing 12-10 loss at Minnesota.

Ah-ha! A new-look Detroit defense that was “mad as hell and n ... read more

Edges are in the Details

Bryan Leonard Jul 3, 2008

When analyzing baseball battles, patterns can emerge. A pitcher may have success against one team over a span of a few years; a team may be great at home, terrible on the road; or a lineup may struggle consistently against lefty starters. All these details provide clues as to which team might have an edge on the diamond.

This is what successful handicapping over the long haul is all abou ... read more

The Scramble for Pitching

Bryan Leonard Jun 25, 2008

This is a good time of the baseball season to take a second careful look at starting pitching. Pitchers need time to work. They need to pitch regularly to build up arm strength and hone their command. You often see a pitcher throw a couple of good innings and then, WHAM, he gets pounded, giving up 4 hits and 3 runs in the blink of an eye.

If you watch the slow-motion replays of what is ... read more

Baseball's Busts

Bryan Leonard Jun 19, 2008

It's only June, but already there have been some surprises and some busts this baseball season. Here's a look at some of baseball's disappointments.

Mariners: The addition of strikeout king Eric Bedard to potential ace Felix Hernandez gave Seattle a dynamite one-two lefty/righty punch atop the rotation, a goal of every team. Yet, they are second worst in team ERA in the American Leagu ... read more

Riding Hot Young Arms

Bryan Leonard Jun 8, 2008

Pitching is probably the most prized commodity in baseball. The baseball draft just took place and while Tampa Bay took a shortstop with the No. 1 overall pick, notice that the previous two years young pitchers went No. 1 in lefty David Price (Rays) and righty Luke Hochevar (Royals). Pitchers develop differently than offensive players and get hurt more easily, so stockpiling arms is essential.

... read more

NBA Finals Matchups

Bryan Leonard Jun 5, 2008

The NBA Finals finds the top two teams in each conference meeting, old rivals the Lakers and Celtics. It’s a battle of matchups and tempo. The Lakers are young, athletic and prefer an uptempo pace, averaging 108 ppg this season. Boston can play both styles, but prefers an intense, defensive style, which has been evident in all their playoff wins.

The matchups are going to be fascinating ... read more

Baseball Surprises

Bryan Leonard May 18, 2008

One aspect of handicapping that’s important to focus in on, especially now that we are several weeks into the season, is the mood of a team. Some clubs are off to better than expected starts, like the Rays, Marlins and Braves. Players on teams like this can be excited about coming to work each day and look forward to playing. Other times, players and teams can be disappointing because of high expe ... read more

NBA Playoff Roar: A Different Animal

Bryan Leonard May 6, 2008

Yes, that NBA playoff roar you're hearing is a different animal from the one you saw and heard during the regular season. The games are different. One, they mean more. Two, teams see each other 4 to 7 times in the span of a week or two. This makes adjustments a huge factor by the coaching staffs. Just as important are moves NOT made by coaches, usually because some coaches aren't good enough to r ... read more

Baseball Road Treks

Bryan Leonard May 2, 2008

It’s essential for sports handicappers to understand the significance of home and road play. Teams in all sports usually play significantly better at home than on the road for a variety of reasons. Think about all the inconveniences when you travel on the road: Time spent driving to the airport, parking, luggage, a plane ride through different time zones, red-eye flights means having your sleep i ... read more

Baseball Surprises, Moods and Injuries

Bryan Leonard Apr 29, 2008

One aspect of handicapping that’s important to focus in on, especially now that we are several weeks into the season, is the mood of a team. Some clubs are off to better than expected starts, like the Orioles, White Sox and Marlins. Players on teams like this can be excited about coming to work each day and look forward to playing. Other times, players and teams can be disappointing because of hi ... read more

Baseball Stats, Fantasy Numbers & Parks

Bryan Leonard Apr 26, 2008

There are a lot of fantasy baseball leagues and players around the country. Drafting and analyzing players on a day to day basis is an excellent tool for handicapping baseball games. The fantasy players need to examine each player’s stats and injury status to see whether they should be in the lineup or not. Players go into slumps, get hurt, or don’t necessarily match up well against a particular ... read more

NBA Playoff Notes: Rest, Age and Youth

Bryan Leonard Apr 22, 2008

During the regular season handicappers carefully look at spots where teams are playing long road stretches and back to back spots. For instance, playing a game on Monday, then playing again Wednesday and Friday is far different from playing Sunday and Monday, then Wednesday and Thursday. The latter is a four-games-in-five-nights stretch, one of the most difficult scheduling spots in the NBA. An ... read more

NBA Playoffs: Defense Rules

Bryan Leonard Apr 18, 2008

The Nuggets and Lakers are going to be interesting to watch this NBA postseason. Not because they’re playing each other in the first round, but because they are teams far better on offense than defense. That’s because you advance in the playoffs more often than not with defense.

Look what happened three years ago when the Denver Nuggets met the Spurs in the playoffs. The Nuggets had su ... read more

Baseball's Overlooked Edge: Relievers

Bryan Leonard Apr 15, 2008

Relievers in baseball don’t get much of the glory. Nor do they get much attention, except when they blow saves or walk in the winning run in the 10th. Still, for sports bettors, examining bullpens is a very important handicapping tool. Understand that starting pitchers generally go 6-7 innings, even very good starters. That still leaves, on average, a third of the game up to the relievers. And ... read more

No Strike or not to Strike?

Bryan Leonard Apr 13, 2008

One often overlooked avenue of baseball is the free pass, players drawing walks or pitchers issuing too many four-ball freebies. From a handicapping point of view, this can reap benefits, especially this time of year with the beginning of a brand new season.

Last year Indians lefty C.C. Sabathia won the Cy Young award winning 19 games. Pinpoint control was a huge part of his success, wa ... read more

April Baseball: Cold Weather & Cool Bats

Bryan Leonard Apr 5, 2008

So how did the Royals sweep the Tigers? Detroit couldn’t hit! Despite all that offensive power the Tigers have on paper, they struggled to score runs. If you look at the third full day of baseball last Thursday, the unders started out 7-1 that day. All of which is not uncommon this time of the year.

From a handicapping perspective the cooler April weather adds a key dimension. One is th ... read more

NBA Eastern Bubble Teams

Bryan Leonard Apr 1, 2008

As we wind down the NBA regular season, just like college basketball, we find several teams fighting for their postseason lives. Atlanta is battling New Jersey, Philadelphia and Indiana for the final playoff spot in the East. The Hawks rely on their veteran backcourt for points. Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby delivered, combining for 41 points in the Hawks' 114-109 win over New York Sunday to keep th ... read more

Long Road Trips for NBA Bottom Feeders

Bryan Leonard Mar 24, 2008

As we wind down the end of the regular season, this is a great week to look at teams that have already packed in the season. There happens to be tough road trips this week for some REALLY bad NBA teams. Take the Knicks – please. The Knicks just had their 50th defeat, on the path to the franchise's first 60-loss season. On a mission to drop to the lottery's second seed, the Knicks were thrashed by ... read more

NBA Road Ahead: Tough Stretch for the Clippers & Bobcats

Bryan Leonard Mar 11, 2008

What’s blue and red and has no home? The LA Clippers! That is, the Clippers have played 11 of the last 12 games in Los Angeles, and yet they are a miserable 1-8 straight up and 2-7 against the spread the last nine games. They’ve played only two official road games during that stretch, and one of them was against the LA Lakers in their own city. And it didn’t help, as they got blown out 119-8 ... read more

Baseball Surprise Teams

Bryan Leonard Mar 9, 2008

Baseball wagering is about money-lines and value, meaning you have to pick straight up winners, not point spreads. There are many surprise teams each season. Some are teams that were expected to be weak or mediocre but explode as one of the better teams in the league, making a pennant run. Other times, surprise teams are ones that were supposed to be real bad but end up closer to .500. Teams in th ... read more

NBA Road Trips & Home Stands

Bryan Leonard Feb 26, 2008

So who’s up and who’s down this week in the NBA? One way to get a sense of who might get hot or go cold is the schedule. The NBA trades last week got all the attention, but handicappers and oddsmakers take careful notice of road trips and situational spots.

One team that might get hot this week is Boston. The Celtics have been working Kevin Garnett back into the lineup after a lengthy lay- ... read more

The Texas Triangle

Bryan Leonard Feb 23, 2008

The Bermuda Triangle is etched in American folklore as a mysterious place where planes and ships have encountered all kinds of difficulties. It’s an enigma dripping with fear, as some unfortunate people have entered the triangle and have never been heard from again. In the NBA, there’s a similar place not as deadly, but certainly one that elicits fear among professional athletes: The Texas Tr ... read more

Identifying Basketball Changes

Bryan Leonard Feb 16, 2008

There are many places to find edges in basketball. One of the best is to identify changes taking place with a team before oddsmakers catch up. Coaching changes, injuries, home/road play, freshmen stepping up, even changes in philosophy all can significantly alter how a team performs both straight up and against the number.

The most obvious example will be a team like the Phoenix Suns, how ... read more

Improving Teams Offer Value

Bryan Leonard Feb 8, 2008

This is an interesting time of the sports betting calendar for college basketball season. Some teams are out of it, seemingly giving up on a lost season. Other teams are playing much better in the second half of the season than the first, and still others can be more focused on the Big Dance than conference tournament play.

It's important to try and gauge where a team's heart is. Is it f ... read more

Situational Basketball Handicapping

Bryan Leonard Feb 6, 2008

Situations can be just as important as matchups or trends when analyzing pro and college basketball games. Sometimes even more so. For instance, a team with outstanding rebounding ability, like the Pistons or Spurs, matchup-wise might have a clear defensive and rebounding edge going against an opponent with an undersized frontcourt, such as the Hawks or 76ers.

However, if San Antonio i ... read more

Handicapping NBA Injuries

Bryan Leonard Jan 29, 2008

When injuries to key players happen in the NBA, oddsmakers certainly pay attention. No Shaq in Miami? The line most definitely will be adjusted, many times significantly. No Yao Ming or Tracy McGrady in Houston? Absolutely that will cause an adjustment.

However, one needs to analyze each team very carefully when deciding to wager on or against clubs that have key injuries. Last year Mi ... read more

Super Bowl Preview

Bryan Leonard Jan 24, 2008

Let’s show some sympathy for the Packers. After all, the story line was there: Veteran Brett Favre leading the youngest team in the NFL into the Super Bowl. However, you have to get it done on the field, not in a Hollywood script. The Packers had never lost a playoff at home in their first eight decades of existence, but have now been toppled three times in the last six years. Ouch.

They lo ... read more

Home/Road Dichotomy

Bryan Leonard Jan 21, 2008

There’s often a significant difference in basketball handicapping with home/road play and stats. Not only scoring and defensive stats, but wins and losses, both straight up and against the spread. One key variable to take into account is experience. Take a look at what Detroit Pistons guard Chauncey Billups said last week: "Anytime we come back, and I don't care who we play, off a four-game tri ... read more

Talk is Cheap

Bryan Leonard Jan 16, 2008

A key to deciphering basketball point spreads and totals is finding out what is going on inside a team. Stats can only tell you so much. Are the players passionate? Is the coach competent? Does one injury make a difference? Or will an injury bury a team for a stretch?

Find out what players and coaches are saying is an excellent way to get inside the huddle and practices of teams. However, ... read more

Stepping Up in Class

Bryan Leonard Jan 14, 2008

College basketball conference play is in full bloom. It’s an excellent idea to examine a team’s non-conference slate as they head into conference competition. Some teams fatten up on cupcakes and are not as well equipped for conference play. Other teams play tough schedules, which may cost them with a few losses, but it better prepares them for the middle portion of the season.

For inst ... read more

Match-up Madness

Bryan Leonard Jan 9, 2008

College basketball is largely about match-ups. My concerns when analyzing games and the point spread are: Can this team defend the three-pointer? Is emotion a part of a match-up? Does the home team have a dominant inside game that the opponent won't be able to contain? Is one team soft on defense?

Analyzing questions like this can identify excellent wagering opportunities. I used a ma ... read more

Line Movement: What's Going On?

Bryan Leonard Jan 5, 2008

I’ve been on both sides of the betting counter when it comes to making numbers. I’ve been a professional bettor searching for bad lines for years, and I’ve made sides and totals for various sports books. Line movement is a fascinating part of the world of sports betting.

A lot of people think that line movement is primarily because some big bettor has inside information and loads up on a ... read more

Beware of the Bye Week

Bryan Leonard Jan 1, 2008

The regular season of the NFL is behind us, which means the surviving teams are battling for the Super Bowl. There has been a lot of jostling regarding playoff positioning over the last few weeks. And now that it’s finally resolved, here’s something to keep in mind as the first round playoff games kick off: Teams that get the bye week have a big edge.

I’m not just talking about home fi ... read more

Insight on New NBA Coaches

Bryan Leonard Dec 29, 2007

NBA coaches are in the news again with Scott Skiles getting the axe in Chicago. Skiles said, "Today was my day to be held accountable." This team had underachieved and Skiles had tried all different kinds of combinations the last two years to try and jumpstart the team. This brings up an interesting handicapping dynamic. The players on the court have to defend, pass the ball and know what to do in ... read more

Motivational Handicapping

Bryan Leonard Dec 25, 2007

Professional handicappers are always in tune with potential emotional situations. This time of the football season offers more avenues than usual, such as a team off a bad game looking to bounce back, or college football bowl games and NFL divisional games.

Florida Atlantic was a good example, rolling over Memphis 44-27 in the second bowl game of the season. Florida Atlantic was only in ... read more

Late Season NFL Handicapping

Bryan Leonard Dec 21, 2007

Coaching in pro football is not easy, and frankly, there are far more bad/mediocre coaches than very good ones. Just ask Detroit Lion fans the last seven years. This is the time of the season when coaches can be a huge factor in whether a team is motivated or not. Many NFL teams are already out of it and there are fans more focused on who they will take in the NFL draft than the remainder of the 2 ... read more

The Inside Scoop on Home Dogs

Bryan Leonard Dec 18, 2007

I was delighted to see money come in on the Broncos in their Thursday night game at Houston. Home dogs can often have extra incentive, and value, this time of the football season. Teams fighting for playoff berths can rise up and give a great effort in front of the home fans, even against a better team.

Other teams who are having bad seasons can rise up late in the year to give the fa ... read more

Talkin' Cappin'

Bryan Leonard Dec 14, 2007

It has been an unusual year in college football with endless shocking upsets, and in the NFL with record-setting point spreads surrounding the record-setting Patriots offense and the stumbling Dolphins going in the opposite direction. It’s also brought about an amazing number of comments from players and coaches, something rarely seen as the NFL prefers to stay as far away from Las Vegas as possi ... read more

Totals Wagering: Don't Ignore Defenses

Bryan Leonard Dec 10, 2007

When examining football totals, many focus on the offensive strengths for overs or weaknesses on unders. Does this team have a decent quarterback? Can they pass the football? Could the weather be a factor? Is the game indoors? Does this team have a capable backup QB if the starter is hurting?

All of these things are worth taking into account. However, it’s just as important to look at ... read more

Ace of the Deck: The Quarterback

Bryan Leonard Dec 6, 2007

There are all kinds of match-ups to examine in football, such as the running game, the defensive line, coaching, home field, hot streaks, and injuries. However, let's not overlook some of the most basic elements of football handicapping. Who met in the Super Bowl last year? The Bears and Colts. One team had a QB (the winning team) and the other one didn’t.

Two years ago? The Seahawks ... read more

Fouth Quarter Comebacks Can Carry Over

Bryan Leonard Dec 4, 2007

Good handicappers put a circle around a team every time they have an exciting fourth quarter comeback. One betting angle that's worth playing attention to is how a team performs the week after a fourth-quarter comeback. Often times the team's excitement carries over the following week, especially if that team is in the race for a playoff spot or a division title. Simply put, it appears that the ... read more

Searching for Value

Bryan Leonard Nov 29, 2007

Handicappers across the board look for value. There are many different variations of value, but the bottom line is finding a betting number that is not what you think it should be, or one that varies from your own power rankings. When examining basketball teams, I group NBA teams in four categories, A, B, C and D.

Those in group A, for example, would be a healthy team that is the elite of t ... read more

Those Stumbling Lions

Bryan Leonard Nov 26, 2007

The times that try men’s souls! Late season football brings pressures on teams that weren’t there early in the season. This might not be a concern for veteran teams that have had some success. But for veteran teams that have a recent history of failure or young teams, it can be an extra handicapping dimension to consider.

Anyone who saw the Lions on Thanksgiving Day could see this. It wa ... read more

Early Season NBA Totals Handicapping

Bryan Leonard Nov 22, 2007

NBA handicapping early in the season offers outstanding wagering value. You can’t go by last year’s stats, as players and coaches have changed. Golden State, for example, traded away Jason Richardson in the offseason for rookie Brandon Wright. They’ve had growing pains with the new personnel, not to mention numerous injuries.

The Houston Rockets used to be a slow down, defensive team unde ... read more

Weather Changes

Bryan Leonard Nov 20, 2007

Successful handicappers, like profitable businesses, know the importance of flexibility. Business strategies that worked six months ago might not work now, with consumer tastes changing, interest rate adjustments or simple market shifts. Being flexible to changes is essential. It’s the same in sports handicapping. Sometimes teams start of 5-0 looking like a juggernaut, but injuries can change thei ... read more

The Art of Basketball Handicapping

Bryan Leonard Nov 14, 2007

I remember 1982 well growing up in Cleveland. The Browns were slowly building a team that would make some noise on the NFL horizon, the young Cavaliers hoped they had found a shining star in the NBA draft, and the Indians were still searching for their first World Series title since 1948. How times have changed!

While the year might have been a bit thin on hope for Cleveland's pro franchis ... read more

Who Really Cares?

Bryan Leonard Nov 10, 2007

I'm not trying to be flippant, but a question that handicappers need to ask this time of year is “Who Really Cares?” Ask it to certain college and NFL teams, that is. We are at that point in the college football season where some teams are fighting for conference titles, winning seasons, and potential bowl berths. Of course, other teams are already out of it, guaranteed a losing season and possibl ... read more

Current Play Trumps Seasonal Stats

Bryan Leonard Nov 8, 2007

If an NFL team is averaging 18 points per game, that's about average. However, a handicapper should not stop there when analyzing a team's offense. If that offense scored 10 points in each of its first four games, then scored 28 in each of its last four, that's a VERY significant difference. They may be averaging 18 per game overall, but it's far more important to me that they are averaging 28 the ... read more

Football Situational Handicapping

Bryan Leonard Nov 2, 2007

I'm a strong proponent of situational handicapping, which examines factors beyond match-ups. This doesn't mean I ignore match-ups. Quite the contrary, I look at match-ups and situations equally. Combining the two can make for outstanding point spread opportunities.

This is the time of the college football season when situational handicapping can come on very strong. Situations like rival ... read more

Box Score Mania!

Bryan Leonard Oct 31, 2007

There are many different handicapping strategies to look at during football season: Betting angles, trends, statistical matchups, situational handicapping, and many more. There are also tried and true methods, too, which shouldn’t be overlooked. Statistics are the most basic of handicapping analysis. There are many revealing factors, as well as highly unusual stats, that crop up in every Sunday NF ... read more

Defense & Situational Play Produce Unders

Bryan Leonard Oct 29, 2007

We are at that point in the season where games are meaningful for some teams and meaningless for others. Nebraska dropped 3 straight in the Big 12, getting blown out badly, which sinks any hopes they might have had for a Big 12 title game shot. The defense is certainly playing with little life or intensity.

Kansas, on the other hand, has a strong defense and loads of motivation, with a 7 ... read more

Reality and Myths of Rushing Attempts

Bryan Leonard Oct 24, 2007

“Run the football more times, and you win.” I hear this all the time, on television and on radio. When examining key games, analysts often conclude one team failed to run the football enough times, and the opponent pulled won the game simply because they had more rushing attempts.

This is a common theme in the NFL. Joe Gibbs of the Redskins, Herm Edwards of the Chiefs and Jon Fox of the ... read more

Cutting Through the Hype

Bryan Leonard Oct 22, 2007

There is endless hype in sports each day. Players predicting that they are on the way to winning a championship after one big win, college football fans storming the field after an upset screaming about heading to the BCS, or NFL players talking championship after a national TV win. It’s the job of successful sports bettors to cut through the hype to see what is really going on.

Weren’t ... read more

Sports Betting Trends

Bryan Leonard Oct 18, 2007

I like match-ups and situational handicapping. This includes such things as strengths against weaknesses, bad lines, homecoming and revenge spots. I'm not big into betting trends. Trends can be dangerous. Some novice sports bettors think, “This team has lost 3 straight against the number, that means they're more likely to cover this game.” Well, you had better have more reasons on your side to bac ... read more

Emotion in Football

Bryan Leonard Oct 15, 2007

Another factor is emotion. Kentucky and their fans were sky-high Saturday, all of which h ... read more

Analyzing NFL Totals

Bryan Leonard Oct 9, 2007

One key aspect of handicapping totals in the NFL is defense. Offensive stats are one thing, but just as important is WHO that team is playing. Or more specifically, if a bad offense is playing a bad defense, they are more likely to move the football, certainly more than the overall stats may suggest.

For instance, the Chiefs have a bad offense. In three of their games, they took on strong ... read more

College Football Revenge

Bryan Leonard Oct 6, 2007

In sports betting, revenge is a tricky angle. One the one hand, there are many times in college and pro football where a team is itching to stick it to an opponent. Last year Tennessee flattened Cal in the opener, but this season the two met again and Cal, now at home, flattened the Volunteers. Revenge was clearly a factor on the minds of the Golden Bears.

Three years Texas was tired of ... read more

Handicapping Tips: Buy Low Sell High

Bryan Leonard Oct 3, 2007

Those who make money in the stock market say its better to sell high and bid low. Wagering and winning is often about finding value. One of the biggest mistakes novice bettors make is to focus too much on what happened last week. If one team destroys another, it doesn’t mean they are going to destroy their opponent the next week.

You have to understand that oddsmakers take this into accou ... read more

NFL Defenses

Bryan Leonard Oct 2, 2007

The top 4 defenses in the NFL last year? In order, Chicago, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Dallas. Three of them made the playoffs and one made the Super Bowl. Two years ago? In order, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Carolina and Pittsburgh. What stands out about that list? All four made the playoffs, two made the Championship games and one made the Super Bowl (and won).

If you think that's simplifying ... read more

Statistical Illusions

Bryan Leonard Sep 27, 2007

That watering hole the caravan driver sees on the horizon turns out to be blazing hot sand. The beautiful girl across the room turns out to be far less so as you get closer. Our eyes can play tricks with our mind as there are mirages all over. The Redskins first half romp over the Giants turns into a crushing defeat as NY rallies in the second half. In the world of sports handicapping, teams and s ... read more

Football: Home/Road Handicapping Factors

Bryan Leonard Sep 25, 2007

That offensive juggernaut of the Indianapolis Colts crushed the Saints in Week 1 of the NFL season, 41-10. In Week 2, the Colts were favored over Tennessee, but barely escaped in a 22-20 squeaker. Why the big difference? Home field is one key handicapping factor.

The Colts are a speed-oriented offense and defense, one built for their home artificial turf. They crushed the Saints at home, ... read more

The Big Uglies

Bryan Leonard Sep 22, 2007

There's plenty of beauty to observe in the NFL. Perfect spirals to graceful wide receivers, a slick runner cutting back against the grain, perfect blocking execution, or a great call such as a finely executed screen pass when the opposition is in an all-out blitz. There is also plenty of ugly play, too. Here are some of the “Big Uglies” thus far with some pro and college offenses.

The Jag ... read more

Football Betting: The Advantage of Playing Experience

Bryan Leonard Sep 17, 2007

We are smack in the middle of the early part of the college and pro football schedule. A key handicapping factor this time of year is experience on the field. College football teams that are returning a lot of starters on one side of the ball can have a significant advantage over and opponent.

A good example is Boston College. A lot of people might have been concerned about a brand new co ... read more

Football Madness Match-ups

Bryan Leonard Sep 14, 2007

When handicapping football, I like to find match-ups that one team can exploit over another. This could be a strong offensive line against a small D-line, a fast set of wideouts against a weak secondary, or a bad coach against a great one. Looking for edges against the Vegas numbers mean looking for edges on the field that one team can take advantage of.

For instance, on Saturday I had un ... read more

September Defenses Can Be in Midseason Form

Bryan Leonard Sep 10, 2007

The opening game of the NFL season spoke volumes about successful football and what often stands out in September. The Colts defense was outstanding, shutting out the Saints offense in the second half of a 41-10 win. New Orleans was No. 1 in total offense in 2006. Most significant was that the Colts runs defense appeared to pick up where it left off during the postseason.

Saints RBs Deuc ... read more

September Football: Quarterbacks & Defense

Bryan Leonard Sep 7, 2007

As the NFL season opens this week, let's get back to some basics when it comes to handicapping football: You win (and often cover) with quarterbacks and defense. There's really no truer adage in football. Betting lines take these factors into account, and you can understand why. The offense revolves around the play of the quarterback, the only player on offense who touches the ball every play.

... read more

Football Changes and Shifts

Bryan Leonard Sep 3, 2007

The NFL preseason is over, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn anything about the upcoming season. Quite the opposite. There were plenty of changes that took place that required notice. For instance, the Jacksonville Jaguars have changed their offensive philosophy. We associate head coach Jack Del Rio with Woody Hayes and his “Three yards and a cloud of dust” offense.

Buckeye Woody neve ... read more

NFL Dogs: An Early Look

Bryan Leonard Aug 30, 2007

While many publications are beginning to look at the best teams in the NFL, there is just as much money to be made betting AGAINST teams with weaknesses. A year ago in this same column I identified the Bills, Raiders and Vikings as potential go-against teams, ones with weakness that can be exploited. In 2006, those teams ended up going 3-9 against the spread as a favorite, and one (Raiders) wen ... read more

Preseason Match-up Analysis

Bryan Leonard Aug 28, 2007

Don’t let anyone tell you there is one method for handicapping games. There are many different ways to analyze what might happen: Trends, emotion, situational handicapping, match-ups, coaching, revenge, or home/field dichotomy. It’s even OK to use a mixture at times.

Let’s take a close look at match-up analysis, something that I prefer and have had excellent results with this NFL preseas ... read more

LSU over Texas for the National Championship

Bryan Leonard Aug 24, 2007

One year ago I had Florida over Ohio State as my preseason top two teams. So, yes, I’ll take a short bow, but a very short one, as it’s a brand new season. I’ve just finished my power rankings for 2007. Here’s at a look at my Top 5 and what teams might be vying around New Year’s for the national title.

1. LSU: Les Miles has a very good offensive mind, a more wide-open attack than prede ... read more

Handicapping: Remembering the Past

Bryan Leonard Aug 20, 2007

Handicappers should have good memories, or at least have a full supply of pencils and notebooks handy. Events from earlier in the season as well as past seasons can help find edges against the spread. A few years ago, for instance, when the NFL opened the season, the Bills flattened the Patriots in Week 1 31-0. The fortunes of the teams changed the rest of the way, and in Week 17 the Bills were ou ... read more

Baseball Betting: Quality Starts

Bryan Leonard Aug 17, 2007

One area I pay attention to when analyzing baseball games is quality starts. Sometimes a pitcher may have a rather high ERA, but that's not all that uncommon today. With expansion over the last decade, starting pitching has become thin and the rarest of commodities. Yes, you will find lousy pitchers throwing in the big leagues simply because their aren't enough good starting arms, but you will als ... read more

Preseason Football Depth

Bryan Leonard Aug 13, 2007

One of the more essential elements of handicapping preseason football is depth. The starters get a lot of attention as to how much playing time they’ll get, which varies greatly from Week 1 to Week 4 in exhibition football. But one thing that is constant is a team’s depth.

For instance, the Buffalo Bills have had numerous injuries thus far. The offensive line has been banged up, with sec ... read more

Preseason Football Tips

Bryan Leonard Aug 10, 2007

Sports handicappers can't beat this time of year: Baseball pennant races in full swing, college football on the horizon and preseason NFL action is already underway! This weekend is the first full slate of NFL play. Contrary to what some might think, there are numerous wagering opportunities with exhibition football, you just have to know what to look for. Not every game offers betting edges, of c ... read more

East Meets West Road Trips

Bryan Leonard Aug 7, 2007

One area of baseball betting I sometimes look at is the length of road trips. It's not always easy for athletes to cross time zones. It can throw off body chemistry and habits, such as getting up at 8 AM when your body believes it's 5 AM. Subtle things like this can make a difference in how much rest/sleep a players has, potentially influencing their performance. Understand that professional athle ... read more

NFL Chemistry: Cleaning up the Moss

Bryan Leonard Aug 3, 2007

Statistics are a major part of football handicapping analysis. Other factors are important, too such as home/field differentials and coaching. A less discussed factor is team chemistry, something which can’t be quantified. You hear players, coaches and general managers speak all the time about having good “chemistry” on the team. One example of good chemistry is on the field between two players th ... read more

NFL Teams with New Looks

Bryan Leonard Jul 31, 2007

NFL Preseason is approaching. Time for players, coaches, and teams to turn over a new leaf. General managers have hired some new coaches, while coaches have added some offensive and defensive assistants to try and improve things. Here’s a look at some changes to look for with some teams in preseason.

Jets: The Jets were one of the surprise teams in the NFL last season, making the playoffs ... read more

When to Take Dogs

Bryan Leonard Jul 27, 2007

I’ve found that inexperienced sports bettors have trouble taking dogs, especially in baseball. Favorites are no problem. It’s easy to spot games that favored teams should win, especially with the better starting pitcher. But identifying dogs and getting the courage and confidence to back them often takes time, patience and careful analysis. With that in mind, here are a few tips on what I look ... read more

Baseball Betting: Quality Starts

Bryan Leonard Jul 23, 2007

One area I pay attention to when analyzing baseball games is quality starts. Sometimes a pitcher may have a rather high ERA, but that’s not all that uncommon today. With expansion over the last decade, starting pitching has become thin and the rarest of commodities. Yes, you will find lousy pitchers throwing in the big leagues simply because their aren’t enough good starting arms, but you will als ... read more

NFL Futures: Part II

Bryan Leonard Jul 18, 2007

This is part two of a look at NFL future lines for projected win totals. Let’s take a peak at some offseason moves and if there is some betting value with respect to future win totals.

Eagles: over/under 9 wins: Winning and stability start at the top, and the Eagles have been one of the best in the NFC from the top down. The Eagles went to four straight NFC title games, fell apart in 2005 ... read more

Analyzing Potential Win Totals in the NFL

Bryan Leonard Jul 13, 2007

The football season is fast approaching and, as always, there are significant changes on the field and the sidelines to examine. Futures lines are out for the projected win totals of pro teams. A year ago in this column, the Falcons were projected over/under 8 wins. I wrote, “Did Atlanta tire of Jim Mora’s tirades? The Falcons flopped in 2005, losing 6 of their final 8 games. This passing game sti ... read more

Managing Your Picks and Your Money

Bryan Leonard Jul 8, 2007

As you gear up for the second half of the baseball season, this is a good time to talk about the importance of money management, which will carry over into football season, too. I recall an old tale about a gambler. A husband accompanied his wife to the hairdresser, which will take just over an hour. The guy goes next door to the casino and plays five dollars at the blackjack table. He proceeds to ... read more

Inside Baseball Puppies

Bryan Leonard Jun 30, 2007

Many baseball bettors have a difficult time backing dogs. One reason is they are looking in the wrong places for edges. Usually the team with the better starting pitcher is going to be the favorite, and a mistake many novice bettors will make is putting too much emphasis on the starters. This can make it difficult to back the dog as they are solely focused on the weaknesses of the underdog starter ... read more

The Scramble for Pitching

Bryan Leonard Jun 27, 2007

This is a good time of the baseball season to take a second careful look at starting pitching. Because pitchers need time to work. They need to pitch regularly to build up arm strength and hone their command. You often see a pitcher throw a couple of good innings and then, WHAM, he gets pounded, giving up 4 hits and 3 runs in the blink of an eye.

If you watch the slow-motion replays of wh ... read more

Baseball Personnel Changes

Bryan Leonard Jun 23, 2007

Changes take place on the baseball diamond daily. Players get hurt and go on the DL. Players get hurt and continue to play, which can affect their performance. Managers make changes in the field and in the batting order. Managers make changes in the starting rotations.

It’s essential for the sports bettor to keep up on these changes. The Angels, for instance, struggled offensively early ... read more

Baseball: Mounds, Meltdowns and Moms

Bryan Leonard Jun 8, 2007

With the summer upon us, hot weather is being fused with hot baseball streaks of all kinds. The Dodgers couldn't slow down San Diego, which has gone a major league-best 24-10 since May 1. Anyone who had the Dodgers and the under in the game was heartbroken. San Diego is 18-9 under the total at home and LA led 5-1 in the 9th inning.

However, fill-in closer Jonathan Broxton entered the ni ... read more

Baseball Road Treks

Bryan Leonard Jun 6, 2007

Road trips can cause all kinds of difficulties for a baseball team, sometimes even more challenging than facing a 95 MPH fastball from an opposing reliever. Jetlag, crossing time zones, sleep deprivation, being in uncomfortable surroundings, being away from the family all make road travel difficult for professional athletes.

The Red Sox appeared to be easy prey for the Oakland A’s this we ... read more

NBA Finals Fever

Bryan Leonard Jun 3, 2007

There was a lot of gnashing of teeth in several cities at the most recent NBA draft. Teams were tanking it to get a shot at Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. If you ever wondered how important one superstar is to turning around the fortunes of a basketball team, look at Tim Duncan, Shaq, Michael Jordan and LeBron James.

James left little debate to that in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Fin ... read more

Baseball Busts

Bryan Leonard May 31, 2007

The season is two months old but already there have been some surprises and some busts this baseball season. Here's a look at some of baseball's disappointments.

Cardinals: Did this team really win the World Series? Most thought the Cardinals underachieved during their 83-win regular season a year ago and then played up to their capabilities in October. Maybe they only overachieved in ... read more

Baseball Road Treks

Bryan Leonard May 27, 2007

Patience: An Offensive Weapon

Bryan Leonard May 24, 2007

Home runs get most fans excited, but an offensive category far less exciting but just as important is drawing walks. Believe it or not, patience at the plate is a key ingredient to winning baseball. Currently these are the four teams in major league baseball in on base percentage, the combination of batting average and walks: 1) Red Sox, 2) Yankees, 3) Mets and 4) Indians.

Two things s ... read more

Baseball Changes, Moods and Injuries

Bryan Leonard May 21, 2007

One aspect of handicapping that’s important to focus in on, especially now that we are several weeks into the season, is the mood of a team. Some clubs are off to better than expected starts, like the Brewers. Players on teams like this can be excited about coming to work each day and look forward to playing. Other times, players and teams can be disappointing because of high expectations or injur ... read more

Baseball Betting: Reverse Psychology

Bryan Leonard May 16, 2007

One thing about examining starting pitchers in baseball is that sometimes the angle is not WHICH pitcher to back, but which one to WAGER AGAINST! You might call this reverse psychology. All time you hear about great pitching match-ups, but what about bad pitching duels? They can be just as interesting - and profitable.

I used this betting strategy last weekend, when the Indians traveled o ... read more

Baseball Handicapping Tips

Bryan Leonard May 13, 2007

Baseball Betting: Putting the Pieces Together

Bryan Leonard May 11, 2007

Finding live underdogs and solid betting wagers in baseball requires the trained eye of a detective and the skilled hands of a tradesman. It is essential to identify the important facets of information, then, like a surgeon, place those pieces together. Just as important is the ability to sift through and throw out pieces that are less important for a particular game. One area to do this is to exa ... read more

NBA Surprises

Bryan Leonard May 7, 2007

In betting circles, their usually aren’t huge upsets in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. No. 1 seeds can often by 10 or 18-to-1 favorites to win a series. And they almost always end up winning. The real upsets are smaller ones, such as a 5-to-1 favorite losing a series.

However, before you run out and back every huge favorite to win, laying an enormous price, it’s worth mentioning th ... read more

NBA Playoffs: A Different Animal

Bryan Leonard May 5, 2007

Baseball's Overlooked Edge: The Bullpen

Bryan Leonard May 2, 2007

Relievers in baseball don’t get much of the glory in baseball. Nor do they get much attention, except when they blow saves or walk in the winning run in the 10th. Still, for sports bettors, examining bullpens is a very important handicapping tool. Understand that starting pitchers generally go 6-7 innings, even very good starters. That still leaves, on average, a third of the game up to the reliev ... read more

Baseball Totals: Early Trends

Bryan Leonard Apr 29, 2007

Trends are an interesting aspect of handicapping. I’m not a strong follower of trends, unless I can identify reasons behind them. For instance, if an NBA team is 17-6 against the spread on Sundays, that’s a trend that means nothing to me. There could be reasons within that trend explaining it, such as 80% of the games were at home, or it could just be a fluke, a statistical anomaly.

Howev ... read more

The Defense Rests!

Bryan Leonard Apr 12, 2007

In the courtroom, the defense rests after presenting its final arguments. In the NBA, it’s a little different. The defense rests late in the regular season, then turns on full force as the playoffs begin. This is an unusual time for basketball bettors. While everyone is focused on who is fighting for playoff seeds, totals bettors are making their own adjustments.

As the regular season win ... read more

Baseball Betting: Free Passes

Bryan Leonard Apr 10, 2007

One area that attracted the Red Sox to shell out so much money for Japanese Daisuke Matsuzaka was his control. This guy not only had a ... read more

NBA Embarrassments

Bryan Leonard Apr 6, 2007

Many teams get embarrassed during an NBA season. After all, it’s a long season and even good teams get smacked around on occasion. It happens. What’s important to look at from a handicapping perspective is what happens next! Does a blowout loss reflect something negative internally that is taking place? Something detrimental to the team’s short and long term health? Or is it an aberration that wil ... read more

Baseball's Impact Kids

Bryan Leonard Apr 3, 2007

The part of handicapping that’s easy to analyze with April baseball is veteran players. You can gauge last season, their career numbers, and what has been happening in spring training (such as injuries or a new pitch some hurler has developed) to get a sense of how they might play this season.

That can then be used to asses how they might impact their team. Not so with rookies. You really ... read more

The Value of Starting Pitching

Bryan Leonard Mar 31, 2007

There’s an old baseball adage that pitching is 90% of the game. That’s arguable, but it comes from a time when teams would have 4 starting pitchers who would go 8 innings each game and each would throw 250-300 innings per season.

Times have changed. A lot. Teams go with 5 to 6 man rotations, starters are pampered, teams put a lot of money into deep bullpens, and expansion has diluted tale ... read more

Baseball 2007

Bryan Leonard Mar 27, 2007

Baseball is a game rich in stats. ERAs, walks allowed, on base percentage, strikeout percentage, home/road stats, hitting streaks, and dozens of other stats to examine. One thing to keep in mind is that this is a brand new season. Stats that a player may have rung up last year or the year before often aren't relevant.

This is very important to keep in mind, especially with regard to pitch ... read more

Defenses Come Up Big in Tourney Time

Bryan Leonard Mar 21, 2007

You will notice many of the strong defensive teams advanced in this past weekend's blitz of NCAA tournament games: Ohio State, Texas A&M, Southern Illinois, Georgetown, USC, Butler, UCLA and Pitt. Texas A&M was a good example of a sound, disciplined, though undersized, defensive team that exceeded expectations. The Aggies shut down Penn (allowing 52 points), then upset Louisville holding the Cardi ... read more

NBA Betting Tips: Ride the Hot Hand

Bryan Leonard Mar 18, 2007

There’s an old rule in sports betting: Don’t go against a hot team. Subsequently, is a team is on an 0-5 SU/ATS run, why would you want to find reasons to back that team the next game? If a team is playing bad, losing straight up and against the spread with regularity, there must be reasons for a slump like this.

We just saw a Milwaukee team on a 1-4 SU/ATS run as well as losing 11 of 16 ... read more

Those Steamrolling Mavericks

Bryan Leonard Mar 13, 2007

Should we just forget the postseason and hand the NBA trophy now to the Dallas Mavericks? Of course not. There’s still a long way to go and anything can happen. Injuries. Playoff upsets. A loss of focus. Dissension. After all, one year ago at this time the Detroit Pistons were steamrolling through the NBA and there was talk of handing them the title. Even the Piston PLAYERS were talking abou ... read more

NBA Defense & Overs

Bryan Leonard Mar 7, 2007

I’m not a trend guy when it comes to sports handicapping. If a team has covered 8 straight road games, that alone isn’t enough for me to start backing them on the road. However, if there are reasons for the team’s improved road play, then I will take a serious look at that trend. Examples would be if the team has key players back from injuries, the coach has changed strategy the last few weeks, or ... read more

NBA Notes: Changes & Freebies

Bryan Leonard Mar 4, 2007

One of the best handicapping angles to unearth is when a team is angry. Revenge situations can present this, of course, as well as when a team is off a terrible beating. A common way to discover if a team is focused on an upcoming game is if they hold a team meeting.

This happened to the Blazers this week. Captain Zach Randolph called a players-only meeting to try to snap his teammates out ... read more

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