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| Early NFL: What To Look For |
| Sep 6, 2009 |
| The best time of the sports year kicks off this week as we begin the NFL season. From preseason play and recent history we can get a good idea about some of the strengths and weaknesses of several teams.
If you like to play totals keep in mind that the Minnesota Vikings were 3-1 under the total in preseason. Sure, all the talk has been on Brett Favre and what he potentially can give them -- ... read more |
| NFL Win Totals |
| Aug 16, 2009 |
| NFL Win Totals, By Big Al McMordie With the NFL season just around the corner, this is good time to look at what might happen this fall on the gridiron. Future numbers are out for each team. A year ago in this column I looked at the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were projected for 9 wins, and wrote: “The Steelers had 10 wins in 2007 with the No. 1 ranked defense. The offense was already ... read more |
| NFL Revenge Games |
| Aug 11, 2009 |
| One of the great things about sports wagering is the growth of creativity over the last decade. Futures wagers, prop bets, halftime wagering have all seen an increase, adding to the challenge and enjoyment of the industry. Other examples are “Games of the Year” and “Revenge Games” which crop up before the college and pro football seasons. Oddsmakers have various numbers posted on key games ... read more |
| Baseball Totals: Parks and Lineup Changes |
| Aug 10, 2009 |
| Offense has been down a bit the last few seasons in major league baseball. There are many theories about this, from teams shoring up the relief staff as many games are decided in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings, to the decrease in steroids. Another factor that's always worth considering is the ballpark. It's no secret that the dimensions of parks play a role not only in how a team plays but in how a ... read more |
| NBA Finals Preview |
| Jun 3, 2009 |
| Cleveland.com said it best: “It's time to put the puppets away. There will be no LeBron James-Kobe Bryant NBA Finals.” It looked like a shoo-in for the top two seeds to meet, setting up a Kobe/LeBron Finals. But once the Eastern Conference Finals began, you could see the Magic were a terrific team that matched up very well with the Cavs. In Game 1, Orlando shot 55% and stole the first game as a +9 ... read more |
| NBA Stretch Run: Is Anybody Healthy? |
| Feb 23, 2009 |
| News flash: Cavaliers/Lakers in the NBA Finals. The Big 3 back in December were the Lakers out West and the Celtics and Cavs in the East. Two of those three were expected to meet in the NBA Finals. Not much has changed since, with the exception of all the injuries to key players preventing any other team from cracking that elite list.
Orlando? Certainly not a fraud, with a supers ... read more |
| Super Bowl XLIII: An Early Look |
| Jan 26, 2009 |
| The theme of this Super Bowl is already evident: Defense or offense? The Cardinals have the No. 4 offense in the NFL, No. 2 in passing, behind QB Kurt Warner and a talented trio of three-1,000+ yard receivers. The physical Steelers have the No. 1 defense. History says defense wins championships, which is why Pittsburgh is favored. But there's a reason they play the games, as we saw last season w ... read more |
| Late Season NFL Adjustments |
| Dec 10, 2008 |
| The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t going to make the playoffs and have had a train wreck season. This wasn’t unexpected. A local writer for the KC Star pointed out, “The Chiefs aren’t built to win football games. They’re built to be $32 million under the salary cap while Arrowhead Stadium undergoes renovation.” But one thing that is interesting from a handicapping point of view is that ... read more |
| Penn State at 11-1 Odds |
| Oct 13, 2008 |
| If you’ve every played billiards or chess, you know that the best players don’t simply go shot to shot or move to move. Rather, they think two or three moves ahead. A pool player uses the current shot to smartly set up his next shot, and so on. There’s a similarity in sports wagering, as well. A successful handicapper should have a good eye for short term wins, and to think moves ahead for pot ... read more |
| Crushing Losses and Tailspins |
| Oct 9, 2008 |
| What characterized the Detroit Lions of 2007? A team that started 6-2 and had postseason visions, only to collapse and miss the playoffs. It was a team in a total tailspin the second half of the season. They couldn’t win (1-7) or cover games (1-7 ATS). Teams can feel helpless when the wheels fall off or they suffer a crushing defeat. It takes a good coaching staff to get a team to focus and pr ... read more |
| NFL Notes |
| Sep 24, 2008 |
Everyone talks about the great parts of football teams. The Broncos' new-look passing attack, QBs Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, or coaches like Andy Reid, Mike Shanahan and Tom Coughlin. But sports bettors can also find winning ATS opportunities by going AGAINST certain things. The Arizona Cardinals, for instance, have been a lousy team on the road the last few years. With ... read more |
| NCAA Football Surprise ATS Teams in 2008 |
| Aug 28, 2008 |
| College football season kicks off this weekend. While all the attention is focused on teams like Florida, USC and defending champion LSU, sports bettors are more interested in teams that are going to cover the weekly number. Every year there are teams that rise and fall based on expectations.
A year ago in this column I had Georgia as a team to keep an eye on. The Bulldogs had a tough defens ... read more |
| The Dogs Are Out |
| Aug 21, 2008 |
| It’s not your imagination: The Dogs have been barking loudly this NFL preseason. In Week 1 the dogs were 9-5-2 against the number, which is not unusual with the first look at all the teams. But Week 2 was even more extreme, with the underdogs going 11-4 ATS (with one game lined at PK'em).
Two of the biggest surprises were the Raiders and Dolphins covering (though not to me, as I had Miami as ... read more |
| Let The Games Begin! |
| Aug 3, 2008 |
| Football is king and August kicks off the 2008 football season. Yes, exhibition football is largely meaningless for the players and coaches, with starters sitting more than playing. Yet, there are plenty of wagering angles and insights available to help identify soft betting numbers.
Teams have made offseason changes, bringing in new personnel on the field and on the sidelines. The Ravens, ... read more |
| NFL Season Win Totals: A Forecast |
| Jul 10, 2008 |
| <>With the NFL season just around the corner, this is good time to look at what might happen this fall on the gridiron. Future numbers are out for each team. A year ago in this column I looked at the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were projected at 8 ½ wins, and wrote: “Jacksonville might have been the best 8-8 football team in NFL history in 2006. Their offense ranked 10th in the NFL (3rd in rushing) ... read more |
| Inside Baseball Trends |
| Jun 27, 2008 |
| Baseball is unique for sports bettors because teams play in very different parks. Some parks are huge, perfect for pitchers (Seattle, Oakland, NY Mets) with large outfields and plenty of foul ground for extra pop outs. Other parks (many more so these days) are small, hitter-friendly places (Fenway, Philly, Pittsburgh, Skydome, Jacobs Field, Houston). Stats and parks can help some trends s ... read more |
| Handicapping Baseball Defense |
| Jun 19, 2008 |
| It's important for a team to have strong defense at key positions such as outfield, shortstop and catcher. Defense at centerfield, shortstop and catcher are where the term "Strong up the middle comes from." Good teams use defense to assist their pitching, turn double plays and help keep team ERAs down. From a betting standpoint, defense can be linked to totals along with the overall te ... read more |
| Rise and Fall of AL Totals |
| Jun 12, 2008 |
| Successful handicappers need to keep track daily of changes in baseball of things that may influence the side and total of a game. The Red Sox, for instance, went three straight games under the total when slugger David Ortiz went on the shelf with a wrist injury. When they got shut out by the Mariners as a -150 home favorite, they were without Ortiz, leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury, and Manny Ramir ... read more |
| Back to the Future |
| Jun 2, 2008 |
| There's no doubt what the theme of the 2008 NBA Finals is: Back to the Future! Celtics/Lakers is going to have producers combing through archival NBA playoff footage from the 60s and 80s, with Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain crashing the boards, and Larry Bird and Magic Johnson running the break in their short shorts. It was always billed as a clash of cultures, as well, with East versus W ... read more |
| NBA Playoff Notes: Adjustments and Defense |
| May 25, 2008 |
| For the record, 75% of NBA teams in a 1-1 series that win Game 3 go on to win that series. That will give a little comfort to the Celtics after their surprisingly easy win in Game 3. It is already shaping up as an odd series. After home teams dominated the last round, the Celtics and Pistons then saw the road team win two of the first three games. Detroit stole the all-important home court ... read more |
| Baseball's Post Steroid Era. |
| May 18, 2008 |
| It’s not your imagination: Nobody is scoring runs! Home runs are down 20% from two years ago. It’s tough to clarify exactly why this is the case, but one answer might be cool weather. Historically home run hitters start slow as April and May have cooler weather, which helps pitchers. Sluggers don’t normally get cooking until the hot summer months.
Still, a more likely culprit would be steroi ... read more |
| What's Wrong With.... |
| May 11, 2008 |
| Each baseball season expectations are strong for most teams, at least as far as improvement. Then the season starts. Suddenly, things don’t go quite according to plan. Some teams play better than expected, others stumble through hitting slumps or injuries. Fortunately, it’s only May, so there is plenty of time to get things straightened out. Here’s a look at several disappointing teams. Me ... read more |
| NBA Playoffs Strategic Adjustments |
| May 4, 2008 |
| It's the time of the season where NBA coaches REALLY earn their money. The NBA Playoffs is largely about three key points: Talent, defense, and adjustments. Naturally, you can't win without talent on the court. Defense is another key, as well as strategic adjustments by the coaching staff. If you don't think coaching strategy is that important, think again. The Spurs and coach Gregg Popovich h ... read more |
| NBA Stretch Run Notes |
| Apr 7, 2008 |
| In the East, the Celtics and Pistons have wrapped up the No. 1 and 2 seeds. In the West, it’s a different story, with the Hornets, Spurs and Lakers all with a shot at No. 1. The amazing Hornets are certainly playing like a hungry team that wants that No. 1 slot, on a 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS run. It will be their first postseason since 2004.
The Hornets have three tough games against the Jazz, Lakers ... read more |
| Streaking/Slumping Toward the Finish Line |
| Mar 31, 2008 |
| As we come down the home stretch of the NBA season, it’s a great time to utilize a different handicapping angle. Namely, are teams motivated to finish strong? Or have they given up? Teams fighting for playoff berths are the most obvious at being extra-motivated.
But other times, even teams with losing records can be motivated to finish the season at .500 or with a winning mark. On the flip s ... read more |
| Down the Stretch |
| Mar 23, 2008 |
| There are a couple of key points to keep in mind from a handicapping perspective as the NBA season begins to wind down. One is that this is the end of a long season. That means teams have had to endure a lot of road trips, airline flights, and all the difficulties that hinder a professional team away from home. Keep in mind that road trips can be very different early in the year, in mid-season and ... read more |
| More Tourney Tips |
| Mar 10, 2008 |
| If you didn't get enough madness this weekend, or were out of town, don't sweat it. You get to go mad all over again! This is a unique week as teams play for conference titles with trips to the postseason play at stake. One of the great parts of March tournament play is the amount of sidebars that can pop up with respect to handicapping. That is, tournament play offers bettors many different facto ... read more |
| NCAA Tourney Tips |
| Mar 10, 2008 |
| Many times during the season, and even in some conference tournament games, you can find teams that are less likely interested in wanting to play hard. That is, they know they’re going to get hammered, or they’ve slumped so badly down the stretch that they realize they have no shot at going anywhere in tourney play. In short, they’ve given up on the season or on a particular game where they are a ... read more |
| Inside the Numbers |
| Feb 11, 2008 |
| As we pass the mid-point of the NBA season, let's take a look at some overall season stats. What is a more important correlation, a good offense or good defense? Well, let's take a look at the highest scoring teams in the NBA: They are, in order, the Suns, Warriors, Lakers, Nuggets, Jazz and Magic. What stands out is that these are good teams in the postseason race, all with winning records. Howev ... read more |
| NBA News and Notes |
| Feb 3, 2008 |
| The Cavaliers ended up with a 14-point rout of the Clippers, 98-84. On the surface it appeared to be a one-sided game. However, a closer look reveals a different story. The victory was tougher than it should have been. LeBron James returned after sitting out last week's loss against the Seattle SuperSonics due to a sore right ankle. He wasn't 100 percent. Even more revealing, the Cavs were ... read more |
| The Wacky Season |
| Dec 2, 2007 |
| Is there any doubt that whoever is #1 heading into the BCS title game will win? That’s because of the #2 curse in this crazy 2007 college football season. If the #2 team can’t even beat Stanford or Pitt, what chance does it have against #1? West Virginia’s shocking loss at home to Pitt only muddies the crazy national title picture. Which begs the questions: Does any college football team in Am ... read more |
| Upsets and Bowl Runs |
| Nov 21, 2007 |
| 2007 has been the year of the upset in college football. It happened again this past weekend, with No. 2 ranked Oregon getting knocked out of the national title picture, followed by Oklahoma. And as we approach the final few weeks of the regular season, there are a lot of key games and teams off emotional highs and lows. This needs to be considered when handicapping games each week. A team ... read more |
| Football's Emotional Ups and Downs |
| Oct 23, 2007 |
| Emotion is an enormous angle to consider when handicapping football games. A fired up, focused team can wipe out a lot of bad stats that they may also possess. We saw this on Monday night a few weeks ago when the Bills hosted the Cowboys. It was the first Monday night game in years for the team and the fans of Buffalo, and they played inspired football for the whole game….or at least up unti ... read more |
| Football Adjustments |
| Oct 12, 2007 |
| It was a wild football weekend last week, and the biggest surprise (in my handicapping lifetime) was USC losing 24-23 to Stanford as an incredible 39-point favorite (and the odds were even higher than that mid-week), ending the Trojans’ 35-game home winning streak. As far as odds are concerned, it was the biggest upset in college football history. It appeared Syracuse pulled off the biggest upse ... read more |
| Football's Upset Weekend |
| Oct 1, 2007 |
| There’s a reason they play the games, of course: You never know! That was certainly evident after this past weekend’s slate of wild games and crazy upsets. This past weekend the dogs were in full force in both the colleges and the pros.
It started with a Friday game as mighty West Virginia was a road favorite at South Florida. But this is a talented South Florida program on the rise under ... read more |
| Football Flops |
| Sep 17, 2007 |
| We just started the pro and college football seasons and several teams are playing up to expectations: USC and LSU in college; the Cowboys, Colts, and Steelers in the NFL. Preseason analysis was accurate in regards to how those teams have thus far played. But what about the flops? There are several teams that have been huge disappointments, and here’s a peek at what’s ailing some of them.
... read more |
| Early NFL: What To Look For |
| Sep 3, 2007 |
| The best time of the sports year kicks off this week as we begin the NFL season. From preseason play and recent history we can get a good idea about some of the strengths and weaknesses of several teams.
If you like to play totals keep in mind that the Washington Redskins are 4-0 under the total the last four years in their regular season opener. Washington has a two-headed coaching monster ... read more |
| NFL Preseason: Angry Coaches |
| Aug 20, 2007 |
| The offenses sure went crazy in Week 2 of the NFL preseason, which usually isn’t the case. There were high scoring games everywhere, with the overs going 11-4 (after the unders went 9-8 in Week 1). Some teams are turning it up a notch offensively, like San Diego and Jacksonville. The Chargers have a new head coach in Norv Turner, an offensive coach, and he’s been spreading the field with his up-te ... read more |
| Week 1 Preseason: Offense Takes A Holiday |
| Aug 12, 2007 |
| If you’re a fan of offense, Week 1 of the NFL preseason wasn’t for you. There wasn’t much scoring, which is usually the case. The unders had the edge again, starting 8-3 before a flurry of late Saturday games finally featured some scoring. In fact, one year ago preseason games started 9-4-1 under the total, so this is nothing new.
There were as many lowlights as highlights. Daunte Culpepper ... read more |
| NFL Preseason Notes |
| Aug 6, 2007 |
| We start the first full weekend of preseason football and there are plenty of betting angles and trends to digest. Granted, preseason football doesn’t mean much for the teams, especially the first week. Starters barely play, and the key is to evaluate the kids and avoid injuries. I heard an NFL scout recently say that preseason is all about depth: Evaluating who you have and whether you should kee ... read more |
| NFL Season Over/Unders |
| Jul 26, 2007 |
| With the NFL season just around the corner, this is good time to look at what might happen this fall on the gridiron. Future numbers are out for each team. A year ago in this column I looked at the Minnesota Vikings: “New coach Brad Childress inherits a mess. They have unloaded stars WR Randy Moss and QB Daunte Culpepper in each of the last two offseasons. QB Brad Johnson turns 38 in September. Th ... read more |
| Pitchers, Injuries and Overuse |
| Jun 27, 2007 |
| When wagering on baseball, pay extra attention to pitchers who are coming off injury stints and ones off starts where they threw a lot of pitches. A few weeks ago Curt Schilling pitched a complete game at Oakland, one where he lost a no-hit bid with two outs in the ninth. He wanted it, of course, and really put forth the extra effort in the eighth and ninth to try to get the no-no.
That’ ... read more |
| Super Bowl XLI |
| Jan 29, 2007 |
| So, do the Bears have a chance? Only two of the last nine NFC Champions won the Super Bowl, and oddsmakers see the Colts as a significant favorite. The key will be defense, with the Bears having the No. 5 overall defense. But this is no ordinary offense, as the Colts rank No. 2 in total offense and passing (27 points, 268 yards passing per game) behind QB Peyton Manning (31 TDs, 9 INTs), TE Dallas ... read more |
| College Basketball Breakdown |
| Jan 25, 2007 |
| The Florida Gators are riding high, still celebrating the school’s national football title a few weeks ago, which came less than a year after the basketball team finished No. 1. Last week Florida had a wild win, holding off an improbable Ole Miss comeback, down 25 points in the second half against the No. 1 team in the country. Instead, Florida retained its slim lead and finished with a 79-70 wi ... read more |
| Coaches in the NFL Post Season |
| Jan 8, 2007 |
| Last week I looked at the records of several NFL head coaches in the postseason. Given what took place over the weekend, it’s worth taking this a step further and analyzing what happens when the merits of difference head coaches square off in the postseason. It will be interesting to see what Saints coach Sean Payton has up his sleeve this weekend. He was voted Coach of the Year and deserved ... read more |
| Handicapping the Bowls |
| Dec 25, 2006 |
Bowl season is in full swing. From a wagering standpoint, you have to approach bowls a little differently than regular season games. One reason is that teams often don’t have any common opponents and play against different conferences, which can make examining match-ups tricky. For instance, last week BYU of the Mountain West conference was playing a Pac-10 school, Oregon. On the one hand, over ... read more |
| NFL Down the Stretch |
| Dec 14, 2006 |
| As we enter the last few weeks of the NFL season, is it better to be playing excellent football, or does it even matter? A year ago at this time the Colts were the favorite to win the Super Bowl with the best record in the NFL and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. There were questions as to whether it was better for coach Tony Dungy to rest his starters and coast the rest of the way, ... read more |
| 2nd Half Wagering |
| Dec 7, 2006 |
It was a wild weekend for football. In college, USC’s upset loss to UCLA sent the BCS title match-up into confusion, while in the NFL there were two safeties and a ton of turnovers in a sloppy Sunday that must have had offensive coaches pulling their hair out. Chicago QB Rex Grossman completed 6 passes and threw three interceptions, and his team STILL covered as a 9-point favorite! Sometimes it ... read more |
| Meat and Potatoes Football |
| Nov 21, 2006 |
With Ohio State/Michigan behind us and Thanksgiving upon us, this is the perfect time to be looking at meat and potatoes football. Ohio State coach Woody Hayes was fond of saying, “Three things can happen when you throw the football, and two of them are bad.” Hayes was old school, which meant he loved to run the football. While QB Troy Smith was the hero in Ohio State’s 42-39 win over ... read more |
| Showdown Saturday |
| Nov 14, 2006 |
There’s nothing like a late season rivalry showdown or a battle of unbeatens. This weekend offers a couple of gridiron dandies, as Keith Jackson might say. Here’s a look at the best of showdown Saturday. Michigan at Ohio State: Folks have been waiting for this one for weeks, as the longtime rivals not only come in undefeated, but also No. 1 and No. 2 in the country. If the Buckeyes ... read more |
| Football Betting Notes: Weathering the Storm |
| Nov 7, 2006 |
As the pro and college football seasons slip into November, it's time to think about important changes taking place. No, not how much turkey and pie you can stuff down your face on Thanksgiving, but factors that are beginning to seep into sports handicapping analysis that weren't there in September. In case you haven't noticed, the weather has begun to change. For sports bet ... read more |
| CFB Betting Notes: Run It Up College Coaches |
| Oct 31, 2006 |
Stats, trends and betting angles all factor into handicapping analysis. Another factor to consider is coaching. There are coaches in both pro and college football that cover the spread on a consistent basis. For the most part, coaches don't consider the point spread each game, and certainly rarely talk about it. Former Washington coach Rick Neuheisel was fired because he was playi ... read more |
| Football Adjustments |
| Oct 27, 2006 |
It was a wild football weekend, the biggest surprise was Michigan State engineering the greatest comeback in NCAA Division I-A history. Down 38-3 in the third quarter at Northwestern, the Spartans rose from the dead with an improbable 41-38 comeback win. The Wildcats started in the first half converting on six of their first seven scoring drives before a missed field goal helped start ... read more |
| The Weaknesses of the NFL's Elite |
| Oct 11, 2006 |
Colts: Here they go again, off to another 5-0 start. Even without Edgerrin James, the offense is one of the top scoring teams in the league. They are a threat to go all the way in January, especially if they get home field advantage. However, one major weakness is run defense. Tony Dungy said before the season that they have gotten smaller and faster on defense. Which begs the question, ... read more |
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