[ABC] The NBA Finals begin tonight in Mile High City with the Miami Heat taking on the Denver Nuggets to determine the league champion. Denver swept the Lakers right out of the playoffs to advance to the finals. The Heat took care of business in the Eastern Conference Finals needing all seven games and a huge Game Seven win on the road in Boston to advance. Denver has been the best team in the playoffs posting a record of 12-3 SU and 9-6 ATS. The Heat have not been far behind with a 12-6 SU record and a much better 13-5 ATS record for 72.2 percent winners against the number. Playoffs and the finals are certainly played at a much higher level than the regular season and non-conference contests. The Nuggets were 19-11 SU and only 15-15 ATS this season versus teams from the Eastern Conference. How much weight should that carry in the finals? Probably not a lot it seems as though the oddsmakers had the Nuggets overpriced in most of those contests. For us that seems to be the case tonight. These two met twice during the regular season and Denver shot the ball extremely well (58%/59%) while holding the Heat to forty-five and forty-four percent shooting. With that being the case, you would think the Nuggets rolled to easy victories but that is not what happened they won by just five and four points respectively. When the two met in Denver the Nuggets needed a double-digit fourth quarter advantage (39 to 29) to pull off the five-point victory. The Nuggets did win both of their meetings against the Heat this season not only SU but also against the spread. The lines were much tighter than tonight’s game they were one-point road underdogs in Miami and four-point home chalk here during the regular season. The Nuggets have won and covered the last six meetings between the clubs. This is a much different Miami team than the one they faced during the regular season. As evidenced by their performance in the playoffs. The Heat took the first two games in Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals we do not expect that here but catching around nine points here we like the Heat’s chances tonight. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 2.23 points. The MM projects a point differential of -7.82 against the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 6.55. The SIM Matrix has the Miami Heat with a 73.98 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in this contest. The Heat as an underdog in the current price range are 20-8-1 ATS. Miami coming off three straight games as an underdog and each game going Under the posted total are 18-7-1 ATS including a perfect 12-0-1 ATS if they are on the road and 10-0-1 ATS as a road underdog in this situation. Play ON NBA non-conference underdogs in the current price range coming off three straight games as an underdog and all three games going Under the posted total, 38-17-1 ATS including 25-9-1 ATS if they are playing on the road in this situation. Denver facing a non-conference foe and coming off a SU/ATS win as a road underdog are only, 7-21-1 ATS including 4-14-1 ATS as a favorite and 0-9-1 ATS as a home favorite. Play Against NBA non-conference favorites in the current price range coming off a SU/ATS win as an underdog while going Under the posted total, 9-22-1 ATS including 4-15-1 ATS as a home favorite in this situation. Play ON NBA road teams averaging 102 or more points per game coming off two or more straight games in which they scored 100 points versus a team allowing 102 or more points per game and coming off a straight up win, 81-61-3 ATS (57%) including 29-18-2 ATS (61.7%) the last thirty days. With solid support for the visitors, we will take the generous points on Thursday night in Game One of the NBA Finals.