(AMAZON PRIME) Week Five of the NFL season gets started Thursday night in Big D where the home host Cowboys welcome the boys from Cigar City. Dallas and their fans are thinking this will be an easy W because the Bucs are 0-4 SU and without their leader who is out with an injury to his thumb. Baker Mayfield is out and that of course changes the game completely for both clubs and how they prepare. This season backup QB’s have posted a record of 7-4 both straight up and against the number when facing the opposing teams starting quarterback. Surprising for sure and we have another small fact that should have an impact on this contest. Tampa is winless so far this season, but their numbers suggest they are better than their record indicates. The Bucs are No. 16 in ypp margin and No. 18 in DVOA. Compared to Dallas who is worse than their record at No. 29 in ypp margin. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 3.01 points. The MM projects a point differential of -5.46 points against the current line range in this contest. The OFF-DEF splits have a projected point differential of -4.84. The SIM Matrix has the Buccaneers with a 73.97 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonight’s game. We want to play ON NFL winless teams who are on the road after the month of September, 129-71 ATS (65%)(+$5,090) including 11-2-2 ATS (85%)(+$860). Take the points with the Bucs as they keep this one close to the final gun. GAME PREDICTION: 8* TAMPA BAY BUCS 20 DALLAS COWBOYS 23

Thursday we head west to Texas where the UTSA Roadrunners are playing host to the Bulls from Cigar City. Both teams arrive in this key American Athletics Conference contest with identical 4-1 SU records, so this is an important game. The Bulls got their 4-1 SU season record by playing the 128th ranked schedule. They are coming off a home loss to Temple losing 17 to 13 as -5.5-point home chalk. Their offense is ranked 133 versus FBS defenses, and their defense is ranked 123 in Pass Defense Efficiency. UTSA got to 4-1 SU by playing the forty-fourth ranked schedule and their only loss came against the number one ranked Texas Longhorns. The Bulls will face a potent UTSA offense led by senior QB Owen McCown who has a 7-2 TD/INT ratio while completing sixty-eight percent of his passes. The Roadrunners seldom have trouble scoring points in bunches at home. In their last thirty-one home games, they’ve averaged 41.4 points per game and haven’t been held below twenty points in any game. The last time they failed to score at least twenty points at home was back in the 2020 campaign. This series has seen the home team go 2-0 both straight up and against the number. Last season in Cigar City the Bulls were two touchdown favorites and were leading at halftime by thirty-two points. Eventually they put an end to the Roadrunners’ misery with the 55 to 23 victory. This bureau believes this Roadrunners team has not forgotten the beating they took against this Bulls team last season. Even if you are playing with revenge you still must have the talent to avenge that loss and in this case this Roadrunners team they certainly have the talent and ability to avenge that embarrassing loss. Our numbers support UTSA and have them winning and covering with ease. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 11.99 points. The MM projects a point differential of 5.46 points against the current line range in this contest. The OFF-DEF splits have the Roadrunners with a 5.32-point advantage against the current number in tonight’s game. The SIM Matrix has the Roadrunners with a 73.99 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonight’s game. In Games 3-10, play ON a non-Saturday favorite seeking revenge for a SU loss of 20+ points allowing 38+ points in the previous matchup last season vs. an opponent not off a non-Saturday conference home favorite SU win, 22-11 ATS (67%)(+$1,090). Play ON CFB AAC favorites in the current price range, 76-54-6 ATS (59%) since the 15 campaign. We are going to lay the chalk with the Roadrunners as they roll against an overmatched Bulls team on Thursday night. PREDICTION: 8* UTSA ROADRUNNERS 40 SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS 28