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Your NFL Preseason Primer – Tread Lightly


By: Tony George
Date: Aug 9, 2015
   
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By Tony George Yes, a sports handicapper who says to take it easy and not trying to jam picks down your throat in the NFL Preseason is rare, but I am also a realist and like to keep the bankroll intact headed into the regular season of the NFL and College Football. I am going to stress a couple of things about the Preseason when it comes to looking at the Las Vegas Line and the NFL in the Preseason that will help you navigate the minefield somewhat.
Less is more – plain and simple. Last year I managed a 9-2 ATS Preseason Record. That was as many selections as I have ever put out in a Pre-Season in my 23 year career Here is a list of those plays I selected, and notice the lines I took.
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis 08-23-14 Minnesota Vikings +3.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs 30-12 Win 100 80 h 60 m Show 08-23-14 Tennessee Titans v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 44 24-17 Win 100 79 h 59 m Show 08-22-14 NY Giants v. NY Jets 35-24 Win 100 56 h 30 m Show 08-21-14 Pittsburgh Steelers v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 21-31 Win 100 32 h 31 m Show 08-18-14 Cleveland Browns v. Washington Redskins OVER 41.5 23-24 Win 100 10 h 41 m Show 08-16-14 Atlanta Falcons v. Houston Texans -3 7-32 Win 100 32 h 36 m Show 08-15-14 Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. New England Patriots 35-42 Loss -120 7 h 8 m Show 08-14-14 Jacksonville Jaguars v. Chicago Bears -2 19-20 Loss -110 8 h 25 m Show 08-09-14 Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Giants -2.5 16-20 Win 100 9 h 22 m Show 08-08-14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 36 10-16 Win 100 7 h 3 m Show 08-07-14 Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos UNDER 37.5 16-21 Win 100 8 h 26 m Show
As you can see I never ONCE laid a big number in the NFLX, nothing over 3 points and many times I took underdogs and Under’s. The Key point here being it is anyone’s ballgame and laying big numbers in the NFLX is a sure fire way to lose your rear end. Here are a few tips to consider when you ante up to the betting window this NFLX Season.
KEY CAPPING POINTS
• Know your coaches – who likes to win the preseason and who doesn’t care as much. Sounds primitive but it is true. There are also 7 new head coaches this year, and all will want to make a huge push to win their first game, so research those scenarios.
• BETTING VOLUME – Less is more, keep the amount of games at a minimum and those plays based on FACTS that come into play. Scour and read all information on each team and the coaching plan headed into the game. ALSO a key point is I simply wager HALF UNIT PLAYS, FLAT BET. That means I cut the wager in half. A Unit is your normal wager. So if you are a $100 player, then just wager $50. The NFLX season is very tricky and unpredictable at times. Flat betting means equal amounts of money on every wager, so as stated, you would wager $50 per contest, nothing more, nothing less. A good approach to use all season I might add.
• Know the depth at the QB position. This is crucial in winning, as a second string and or even third string QB with some experience and talent will provide more opportunities to make plays and put points up. So if Chase Daniels for Kansas City is at the helm versus a team who is breaking in a rookie prospect at QB late in the game, Kansas City has a clear advantage. I have used QB depth as one of my key capping components over the years, and as it shows above from last year, you cannot argue with a 9-2 record.
• Week 3 is the dress rehearsal for the regular season and quite frankly the first 3 quarters are almost always starters and the coaching staff is implementing their game plan and schemes FOR REAL. The easiest week to handicap because the real tangible items are on display.
• Week 4 is a crapshoot. At that point in the Preseason most if not all coaches are looking to make final cuts deep in their roster and starters see little if any action. This is where coaches protect their assets and do not risk injury to key players. Perhaps look at 1 game scenario in this week, or just wait for the regular season or go find a college game to have action on.
Written by Tony George
 

  Paul Chirimbes
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