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Home / Articles / Turning Favorites into Underdogs with MLB BASEBALL

Turning Favorites into Underdogs with MLB BASEBALL

By: Joe Gavazzi
Date: Mar 29, 2016
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There wasn’t much choice back in 1979, or for at least the next decade after that to follow. If you wanted to know something about an outcome of a game from a historical or technical perspective, you spent the time to do the laborious task of logging the results by hand, followed by the tedious hours of researching those handwritten results. You had better damn sure make your hypotheses good before you decided to undertake such research, or be willing to shift gears if a result other than what you expected emerged. The latter was a great way to build the concept of contrary research in sports handicapping.

For the most part, no such issues exist today. For the last 20 years, with the advent of the high-tech era, data bases filled with historical results have proliferated. As long as you know the right hypothesis to query, or be willing to be pleasantly surprised by the contrary results, the answer can come to you in a split second. I have no problem with such a handicapping process, except for the fact that one does not learn nearly as much about a team or its tendencies as when you log the results by hand.

That is exactly what I have done for the last six seasons in developing my own proprietary research into run line results in MLB. There is ample data on the internet which will give you MLB team run line trends for home/road or W/L splits. But this data was not answering my query of how teams do against the run line IF THEY WIN OR LOSE THE GAME, at home and on the road. Now with six years of data, numerous hours of hand logging results and increasing experience in how to correlate the baseball handicap with the run line result, my MLB RUN LINE DOGS HAVE SHOWN INCREASING PROFIT EACH AND EVERY SEASON.

For example, last MLB season using the concept of SUPER SURGERS VS TOWEL TOSSERS, which has shown such incredible success for us in college football and basketball, I transferred the process to MLB thinking. Beginning with August 1st and running till the end of September, I isolated groups of teams that had tossed the towel, and who were super surging. If you followed MLB at all last season, you knew that such teams as Philadelphia, Atlanta, Miami, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, San Diego, and Colorado tossed the towel early in the National League. The combined RUN LINE record of playing against these teams on the road was 98-26. Sure, most of them were underdogs in these spots of 150 or more. But when you translated changing the favorite into a run line proposition in which you TOOK MONEY AS AN UNDERDOG, IT RESULTED IN HUGE PROFIT. The run line results of these teams when playing at home was even more profitable. Playing against these seven National League Towel Tossers when at home last August and September resulted in a record of 108-19. Again, WE TURN HUGE PROFITS fading these teams on their home field by translating them into run line underdogs. This is just one example of ways that I’ve used my run line research over the years.

Again this season, I will be doing my daily logging by hand of run line results, and looking for emerging patterns using home/road dichotomies, momentum, and isolating hot and cold starters. Again I anticipate huge profit. Just to tease you a bit more, let’s now look at some American League team trends from recent seasons which may point the way to profits this season. Caveat emptor, however, as I’ve seen these trends turn on a dime with managerial changes, or trades that have altered a team’s make up and chemistry.

Not content to rest on the laurels of my outstanding money line results, and deciding that I CAN SLEEP WHEN I DIE, I’ve decided to delve in to isolating winners on first five inning plays. I have already created my hypothesis and will begin logging each of the 162 box scores of each of the 30 teams by hand to isolate five IP winners in MLB this season. Stay tuned for the results of that research and what I hope to be results that are hugely profitable for all. I hope to have you along for the ride this season. It’s spring time…and the winning is easy! It’s time to PLAY BALL! Written by Joe Gavazzi of 10StarPicks.com

  Paul Chirimbes
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