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The Favorite Doesn't Always Win

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By: America's Bookie
Date: Jan 26, 2022
   
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  1. Game Circumstances

Typically, a game's outcome doesn't solely rely on a team's prowess as the favorites also lose. Besides, a team's quality can occasionally fail to match its performance and some external factors can affect the match including:

  1. Recent Form

Football has inconsistent momentum as people have varying opinions about it. Still, its psychological aspect tends to have a significant impact on games. Thus, momentum and confidence influence a team's performance.

Winning can be addictive at times. For example, players gain more confidence when their team wins several consecutive games and they gradually improve their performance.

You can analyze a team's recent form to forecast its future performances. But, don't rely solely on its past results and neglect other factors.

For instance, you might assume that a team is in great form because it has won five consecutive matches, yet, four of the games might have been against weak opponents. So, such results won't give you accurate information about its form.

  1. Motivation

Research shows that demotivated players are likely to perform poorly. Still, many football bettors overlook this factor.

Naturally, players get emotionally unstable when they are facing a tough opponent while they are demotivated. Some of them cannot positively channel motivation and it results in adversely affecting their performance.

  1. Venue

Many teams perform better on the home ground than in away matches. Yet, some sports enthusiasts dismiss the impact of home-field advantage on a team's performance. In sports such as the National Football League (NFL), home teams win 60 percent of their games and lose most of their away games.

It is important to put a game's venue into proper consideration, as you cannot always back the home team if you intend to wager for a long period. So, determine when home-field advantage will have a huge impact and capitalize on it.

  1. Schedules

A team's schedule can exert a lot of pressure on players and affect their performance. For instance, an East coast football team might have to fly west for eight matches in a season. Its performance might be negatively affected if some of the away games are close, especially those scheduled to take place in the afternoon.

  1. Injuries

Each team releases an injury report before any game. So, it is wise to check it, to determine whether a team's key players will play in a certain match. Some teams tend to have an acute shortage of highly talented players when they have several injuries.

  1. Weather

Although both teams play in similar weather conditions, one of them might be more comfortable with them than the other one, especially if they are extreme. Check game day's weather reports to predict its impact on the favorite's performance.

  1. Team Quality

Team strength greatly influences a game's outcome and a large number of gamblers consider it when deciding the side that they will back. Still, there are other team quality aspects that you need to look at such as:

  1. Team Unity

A team might have several talented players, but it can lose to a weak opponent if its players lack proper coordination. Also, a team with few high-quality players can win many games if it has unity.

  1. Weaknesses and Strengths

Identify and compare each team's strengths and weaknesses. For example, a team can have a strong defense and a weak offense. If it plays an opponent with strong offense and defense, the game might have many goals.

Sportsbooks offer hundreds of football betting options including a three-way win. Generally, underdogs have more odds than the favorite due to their low winning probabilities. It is important to analyze game circumstances and a team's quality before you back it.

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