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Home / Articles / TONYK'S FANTASY FOOTBALL PICKS - What you need to know

TONYK'S FANTASY FOOTBALL PICKS - What you need to know

Tony  Karpinski
Tony Karpinski

Tony K. and 3G-Sports have won several handicapping contests, including multiple SportsNow Handicapping Contests (baseball, football, hockey, and basketball) and at the Sports Monitor, which have made him a sought-after expert and a regular guest on several weekly sports talk radio stations in the throughout of the country. He finished in the top 10 in the renowned 2006 Las Vegas Hilton $500,000. Super Book Contest. Handicapping sporting events successfully requires a huge time commitment and unwavering dedication. I determine the viability of teams by studying game action, box scores, personnel, coaches, stats, trends, past history, game conditions and current strengths and weaknesses to create the most comprehensive picture of likely outcomes. With over 16 years of experience providing sports information services to sports fans around the world, Tony K. is considered one of the pioneers in the burgeoning sports picking industry. As a former multi-sport college athlete, Tony K. has a keen eye for, and understanding of, athletic performance. Tony uses this knowledge to publish a weekly newsletters, which has attracted a national following and led him to his success.

By: Tony Karpinski
Date: Aug 30, 2016
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Fantasy Football is crawling into your veins again - with expectations of raising the digital championship title above your head, in your living room. In a league where the QB is the reigning champion - things are a bit different in the world of fantasy football. WRs seem to be the top cheese that every drafter wants to go in the direction of.

The draft strategies we hear about, the zero RB draft (odds are you will have that guy in your draft this year), the 6 WR draft, don’t draft a defense, blah blah blah. Let’s break it down as to who and why you should or should not draft some of these guys this year.

*Sleepers - These are the players that will put up better numbers this season that some may think. ****************************

LeSean McCoy RB, Buffalo Bills

2015 numbers 895 YDs, 3 rushing TDs

Honestly, maybe I am brash - calling him a sleeper, but I put him here because he is not being looked at as a top 4-5 RB this year. 9 TD producer, Karlos Williams was dropped by the Bills, so they are now going to be leaning greatly on McCoy. I am shocked that he is a guy that likely won’t go off the board until 4th or 5th rounds. Why has the fantasy world disregarded LeSean? In each of his first 6 seasons with the Eagles, Shady pounded the rock for over 1,000 yards and 5 TDs on the ground 4 times. He produced pts, continuously. Last year he had 100+ YDs between receiving and rushing 8 times. Last season McCoy scored only 3 rushing TDs while scurrying for 895 yards as he shared the backfield with Williams, this is no more. Shady will be locked in for 1200 and 8-10 TDs.

Tavon Austin, WR, Los Angeles Rams

2015 numbers 473 YDs, 5 TDs

Austin was in the mix of mid tiered WRs last year in pts, ahead of sensational Amari Cooper, and 1100 YD, T.Y. Hilton. Austin brings pts in an assortment of skill to the Rams. He also had 434 rushing YDs and 4 TDs in 2015 - over 300 clear of 2nd place, Jarvis Landry. Think about the fact that his separation of yardage is almost equivalent to how many rushing YDs he had, pretty remarkable. So overall, as far as what he brings per season – comprising all of his skills, he had 907 yards and 9 TDs. As a solid WR2, Austin gets quiet pts, it’s what his game is. You can probably grab him in the 6-7th round, and he can give you firm WR2 numbers at your flex spot.

Busts - aka the “nope list” ***************************

Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints

2015 numbers 1138 YDs, 9 TDs

Cooks only looked at 129 targets in 2015, mainly because Drew Brees uses his entire entourage on the field. A middling WR and a QB who uses too many options – isn’t a good grab. Willie Snead is principally the same player, but a little younger, and bigger - that no one pays attention to. Bigger YPC and superior hands, Snead will be a better fantasy WR before long. And you undoubtedly can pick up Snead in much later rounds.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons 2015 numbers 1056 YDs, 11 TDs Freeman had a great stretch where everyone fell in love with him. He had 578 rushing YDs and 8 TDs over a 5 week run - then he plummeted with only 347 YDs and 6 weeks averaging less than 3.4 YPC over the last 7. He is not going to be a guy to depend on. Freeman’s 2nd half of the season was abysmal. Also, truthfully, Tevin Coleman getting back on the field would worry me. Atlanta is going to give him touches this year, mark it down. Freeman isn’t going to get the 265 carry load that he had in 2015 - which clearly means he's not going to see 1,000 rushing YDs or 11 rushing TDs either.

Wouldn’t roll the dice on these guys - players I simply am not taking. I am not saying these players shouldn’t be drafted, but I have no interest in selecting them. **************************************

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs 2015 numbers 364 YDs, 4 TDs Jamaal is on his way to the feared 30, and coming off an ACL tear. If that isn’t enough to spook you to some extent – I don’t know what else to say. Another eccentric thing when it comes to Charles –as much as I love him as a player, the 29 yr old has a great season (1,287 YDs, and 12 TDs) and then an injury riddled one. He’s due, but that knee…no, not for me.

Alshon Jeffrey, WR, Chicago Bears 2015 numbers 807 YDs, 4 TDs Alshon is the definitive feast or famine WR. He has had some injury matters in his career, we all are aware of. When he is healthy and on the field - he is a scoring machine. If he stayed on the field in 2015, he likely would have been a top 3-4 scoring option. In standard scoring, 4 out of his 9 games he scored 14+ pts, which are essentially WR1 numbers. His history concerns me…very much so. I can’t call Jeffrey a bust, but his faith factor is so low, if you can grab him in 5-6th rd (which won’t happen) he is great. For a guy who is being drafted as a high ended WR2, I don’t like it. He is on the border of being a flex option for me. And let’s not forget the 6-3, 1st round draftee, Kevin White guy, will be joining him as well now.

Undervalued – you now the name, but no one gives suitable attention to them. **********************************

Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints 2015 numbers 769 YDs, 6 TDs I know, he’s “not undervalued.” Yes he is. Ingram had better hands than Jonathan Stewart, better YPC than Eddie Lacy, and quietly more touches/game than the versatile Jeremy Hill. Think again. The Saints ride Ingram as their workhorse and will again make him one of the top fantasy producers in the game. Before he got hurt last year, he was one of the highest scoring RBs in the league, and he was dependable. Compiling for 90 or more YDs in 8 out of 12 games. He gets touches, and big volume means YDs and YDs mean pts.

Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills 2015 numbers 3,035 passing YDs, 20 passing TDs I am super high on the 26 year old QB. Last year, he ranked in the top 15 in some nice passing categories last season, including YDs/attempt, QB rating for guys who threw 380 or more passes, and he had a better TD throwing % than Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger, both who have a better cast of WRs to throw to. He is a point producer.

Taylor was one of the worthier fantasy QBs in 2015 after mid-season, which includes Rodgers, Big Ben and even Brady. 6 games with 45 or more rushing YDs, and he is just getting started, 21.7 ppg over the last 6 games of the year in 2015. Don’t get caught looking over this guy.

Written by TonyK for VegasTopDogs and 10StarPicks.

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