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Home / Articles / Mike's Week 6 CFB/MLB Wild Card Analysis/Review/ Notes

Mike's Week 6 CFB/MLB Wild Card Analysis/Review/ Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 10, 2022
   
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Saturday, October 08, 2022 Southern Mississippi vs. Troy (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-110 Troy Rating: 9* Mike's 9 Star CFB Below The Belt Knockout Play! (WIN) We're heading to the Sun Belt West Division for this tussle between Will Hall's (2nd season, 5-11 overall) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS) & Jon Sumrall's (1st season, 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS) Troy Trojans. Hall (ex-Tulane OC) & his troops are fresh off shocking his ex-team 2 weeks ago when they went to Yulman Stadium in New Orleans (as 12-point dogs) & left 27-24 winners (gave the Green Wave their only loss this season). The Trojans are also off an upset win as they went to Bowling Green's L.T Smith Stadium & won over Western Kentucky 34-27 as 4 1/2-point dogs. That win broke a streak of 18 straight games where WKU has scored 30+ points. I guess they really miss Bailey Zappe (with the NE Patriots) right now. For Troy, QB Gunnar Watson (1,451 passing yards) leads the way under center & has 2 very reliable targets in WR's Deshon Stoudemire (25 catches) & Jabre Barber (23 receptions). I love the fact that Sumrall (ex-DC @ Kentucky) returns a strong nucleus with 9 out of 11 starters back on both sides of the ball. They also rate the edge in total offense (Troy ranked 64th-SMiss 98th) & in total defense (Troy ranked 73rd-SMiss 86th). My bottom line takes into high consideration these 3 things. First, new DC Shiel Wood has given his "D" a 3-4 look with a "Bandit" who is Richard Jibunor. It's Jibunor's job to rush in & pressure QB's from the OLB'ing position & he's been successful doing it. Second, in the Southern Miss upset over Tulane, they also got out-gained badly 451 to 253. Here's the kicker! In the past 8 seasons, teams outgained by 120+ yards coming off a road dog SU win have come back the following week to post a horrible 22-42-2 ATS record (34.4%). Those are pretty strong numbers to overlook. Third & lastly, when Troy comes in as a home favorite versus a conference foe seeking revenge, they've gone a very reliable 23-4 SU & 17-9-1 ATS. Let's roll to Alabama's Veterans Memorial Stadium to play the TROY TROJANS - 6 1/2 as my 9 Star CFB Below The Belt Knockout Play! TCU vs. Kansas (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -265 TCU Rating: 8* Mike's Big 12 Game Of The Week (WIN) I feel the Kansas offense was exposed last week in their 14-11 home win over the Iowa State Cyclones. Yes, they're 5-0 SU but getting just 10 first downs & losing the "In The Stats" battle by 100 yards (313 to 213) is definitely raising the red flag. What I love about this game is the OTHER side with HC Sonny Dykes (1st season) taking over after a 4-year stint @ S.M.U.. He's inherited an offense that's rich in talent with 10 offensive starters back that includes a resurrected QB in Max Duggan who dismantled the Oklahoma "D" for 668 total yards in a 55-24 shellacking that left them 4-0 SU heading into this battle of the unbeatens. My bottom line says the Horned Frogs 2nd-ranked offense in the land will hard to catch unless Lance Leipold's charges play this game with laser focus. That's going to be tough since they finally feel they have a chance to beat hated Oklahoma next week. Let's go to David booth Memorial Stadium in Lawrence to play the T.C.U. HORNED FROGS for the "W" as my 8 Star Big 12 Game Of The Week! South Carolina vs. Kentucky (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +10.5/-110 South Carolina Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play (WIN+OUTRIGHT) Sometimes you have to roll with Gamecocks' QB Spencer Rattler. I love him a whole lot better in the underdog role (he's not @ Oklahoma anymore) as he's be loosey-goosey on the SEC road as 2nd-year HC Shane Beamer (3-2 SU this season) has 9 offensive starters back this season. This represents a great situational advantage for them as they catch a Mark Stoops' (10th season) Kentucky Wildcats squad fresh off an emotional 22-19 road loss in Oxford to Ole Miss with a revenge game with the Mississippi State Bulldogs on deck. Plus, UK has also played a few cream puffs along the way to their 4-1 record by beating Miami of Ohio, Youngstown State & Northern Illinois. I'm not buying the hype as we go to Kroger Field in Lexington to play the SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (buying to a strategic + 14 1/2) as my 8 Star CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play! Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +9/-110 Texas Tech Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (WIN off the BUY) It certainly seems like HC Mike Gundy (18th season) & his Oklahoma State Cowboys (ranked in the Top 15 for 17 consecutive polls) may be off to the races again (4-0 SU thus far) to a 12-win year. However, a 36-25 win over a not-the-same, 3-2 SU Baylor team where they got out-gained 457 to 379 hardly constitutes giving them this much respect. Remember, their OTHER wins were all @ home versus also-rans like Central Michigan, Arizona State & Arkansas Pine-Bluff. I believe these Cowboys are left pretty fat & happy this week (including Okie State QB Spencer Sanders (threw 7 INT's in 2 games versus Baylor last year) after executing revenge last week on the Bears who knocked them off 21-16 in the Big 12 Championship last season. They're left in a proverbial sandwich this week with undefeated & high-powered T.C.U. awaits them in a roadie next week. My bottom line says HC Joey McGuire's charges have BIG TIME revenge for the 23-0 home embarrassment they put on them late last season. With Tech a perfect 4-0 ATS in this series when OSU comes off a SU underdog win, there's only one way to go as we jaunt into Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater to play the TEXAS TECH RAIDERS (buying to + 11 1/2) as my 8 Star CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Friday, October 07, 2022 Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -145 Toronto Blue Jays Rating: 9* Mike's MLB Wild Card Eye Opener (LOSS) While many may go for value &/or a steady dose of underdogs, I believe to go right after the "W". I'll grab a decisive play but only play on them with a selective intensity. I feel one of those plays will occur Friday afternoon. The Seattle Mariners haven't seen Toronto RHP Alek Manoah much (once in his career). That one time was earlier this season on July 9th @ T-Mobile Park in the state of Washington. Manoah was stingy in shutting them out until the 7th inning when Carlos Santana hit a 2-run homer for a 2-1 lead (but overall, the Seattle hitters struggled striking out 7 times & had just 3 hits off him in 7+ innings). Manoah showed excellent command of his 2 & 4 seam fastballs as well as his slider that he throws versus lefties or righties. Let's take advantage of a Seattle lineup hitting just .227 versus RHP up against a hot pitcher throwing darts to the tune of a brilliant 0.47 ERA spanning his past 3 starts (versus Boston, Tampa Bay & Baltimore). Let's go to the Rogers Centre for a Friday Afternooner in Toronto as we roll with Man-O-Manoah as we play the SEATTLE MARINERS-NO SCORE 1st Inning as my 9 Star MLB Wild Card Eye Opener! NOTES: Things are certainly @ a feverish pitch in CFB! A 4-0 weekend included a outright underdog win by South Carolina over Kentucky. I'm hoping to ride some of that momentum into Sunday as I've hit an amazing 12 selections in a row (CFB-NFL) combined) headin' in. In MLB action, it was a horrible start as the 1 of the prop bets on Toronto finally ended a very long streak. Nevertheless, a 24-4 mark the last 28 isn't too shabby. Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 11-3 for a surreal 79% Mike Handzelek's 2022 MLB Final Overall Record: 50-17 for a career-best 75%
 


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