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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's Super Bowl Money Plays Analysis/Review/Notes

Mike Handzelek's Super Bowl Money Plays Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Feb 13, 2023
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 6:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -125 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 8* My 2nd Installment - 11 Official Money Play Props (7 WINS, 4 LOSSES) While there are so many prognosticators that are literally DIVING in on the angle of Kansas City HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid (1-2 SU coaching Super Bowls) playing with revenge for a city that abandoned him after coaching 14 seasons in the City of Brotherly Love. I feel that is negated considering when he came to coach the Chiefs in 2013, he ALSO let go now Eagles' HC Nick Sirianni who was KC's WR Coach (Todd Haley originally hired him in 09' as Offensive Quality Control Coach & was later under HC Romeo Crennel). In reality, both HC's are playing with a little revenge here. For this one, since I'm a in-the-trenches guy, I believe Philadelphia has the fresher & better lines overall heading in. However, if Eagles' DC Jonathan Gannon isn't sharp with his defensive schemes (he should be), HC Andy Reid could wind up stealing one in the end. That's why we'll be playing a COMBO game prop with extreme value but that's it for mentioning the side. When picking a side though, remember that the SU winner has also covered the spread @ a 86.7% pace going 47-7-2 ATS. Let's look @ some cold, hard facts. The average winning score is 30.0 & losing score 16.1 PPG. However, it's NOW a competitive era since 17 out of the last 19 have been decided by 14 or less. A word of caution: the mushes tend to bet what's recently happened in the past & that's clearly on the underdog which has gone 11-4 versus the number the past 15 Super Bowls. Teams that score 27 points or more have gone 30-4 SU since 1980. Teams who fail to score 20 points are 2-25 SU during that same time frame. Teams that give up the fewest points on the season (Philly) have won the last 7 SB's SU. For 6-point teaser stats, the NFC teams have gone 39-17 ATS (70%) in the past 56 SB's. Teams with more offensive yards on the season (KC) have gone 1-10 SU & a perfect 0-11 ATS. NFL MVP Super Bowl QB's (Mahomes is this year) have gone a perfect 0-8 SU & ATS since 2002. The team with the most rushing yards has gone 41-14-1 in the big one. The key figure for Philly is 100 rushing yards. They've gone 14-0 SU when they've reached that plateau. The Birds 39 rushing TD's this season is the MOST in NFL history. KC was out-rushed in 10 games this season. Philly Steak N' Cheese as a #1 NFC Seed has gone 7-0 ATS their last 7 as that seed. There's been 7 one-score games this NFL post-season. The Eagles not only finished with 15 more sacks than any team but also ranked 1st in pass rush wins & pass rush win rate. KC's defense had the 3rd-worst QB rating & ranked 31st (next to last) in red zone defense. Against the Bengals, KC CB L'Jarius Sneed suffered a concussion & OLB William Gay went out with a shoulder injury. When the Bucs' defense overwhelmed KC & Mahomes 2 SB's ago 31-9, TB's defense (pressured Mahomes 44 times) had a seasonal average of 2.9 sacks per game with a sack rate of 6.28%. In comparison, Philadelphia has sacked the QB at a seasonal 4.1 % rate with a sack rate of 11.49%. I've been watching film for the past 2 weeks & while Pat Mahomes' high-ankle sprain will be better, it won't be close to healed. During the Cincy game, Mahomes never rolled out to his left. He either dropped back into the pocket or rolled out to the right (including that last play where he was roughed out of bounds). For this game, the Philly defensive linemen will be FRESH since they rotated 9 players versus SF - Sweat, Hargrave, Cox, Suh, Graham, Williams, Davis, Joseph & Quinn. They have some of the LOWEST usage rates in the league & in that 49ers' game, Josh Sweat was only used for 29 snaps (the most of all rushers) while Robert Quinn was used just 6. (least of all rushers). With a devastating pass rush & athletic secondary, Mahomes' time to get the ball away to TE Travis Kelce & WR's Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Kadarius Toney with be severely limited. It's a tall order, but if they can successfully run the ball with Isiah "Cheetah" Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon & the recently activated Clyde Edwards-Helaire whose coming off a high-ankle sprain, they can win. On the flip side over on the KC defensive side versus Cincinnati, 9 rookies played in that game & usage wise, KC really had their top 2 defensive lineman out there for close to the whole game. DE Frank Clark & DT Chris Jones played 86 & 82 % of the snaps (57 & 54). In conclusion, QB Jalen Hurts is HUNGRY for that elusive trophy (Mahomes has one) & has the diverse & superior offense where not only can Sanders, Gainwell & Scott break off long runs but WR's Brown & Smith can burn defenses short to deep & TE Goedert can sustain drives with 3rd-down catches over the middle. I also feel Sirianni has those Doug Pederson vibes like this team had 5 seasons ago. I feel banged-up KC resembles Buffalo of last month whose eventually going to run out of gas. For those TOTALS players -- Note that the Carl Cheffers' officiating crew has seen 11-1 UNDERS the last 12 (Under by a 12.9 PPG margin) & a perfect 6-0 UNDERS (Under by a 14.5 PPG margin) since 2019! Here's my 11 MONEY PROPS of which 1 has the side in a COMBO play! Play #1 -- Play NO Safety (-2000). The last safety was about 10 SB's ago & we have 2 agile & smart QB's with quick release. Play#2 -- Take COMBO play Rocky Balboa's Philadelphia Eagles 1/2 Time With Philadelphia also Full Time for EXCELLENT value @ (+145). Remember, Philly was 15-1-1SU @ Halftime (score an NFL-best 18.2 PPG in 1st Half) & 16-1 SU Full Game with Hurts this season. Play#3 -- Total Players To Have A Rushing Attempt - Play UNDER 9 1/2 (-157). Play #4 -- Play Eagles To Score A Rushing TD -- YES (-335). Play #5 -- Quarter of 1st Eagles' TD -- Play 1st Quarter (-112). Play #6 -- Any FG/XP To Hit The Upright/Crossbar NO (-715). With 2 reliable kickers & ideal conditions (a new turf with no Dallas kickers in sight), let's cash & move on! Play #7 -- Player To Attempt The Most Passes - Play Patrick Mahomes (-335). Play #8 -- Total Interceptions - Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 (-109). In his 2 SB's prior, whether winning or losing, Mahomes was a gambler & threw 2 INT's in both games. Play #9 -- Total LOST Fumbles -- Play UNDER 1 1/2 (-265). Play #10 -- Match To End With A Scorigami - NO (-10000). If the book is stupid enough to put this out, try to get this in a parlay. A scorigami means a 0-0 score after 4 quarters. Play #11 -- Total Number Of Coaches' Challenges -- Play UNDER 1 1/2 (-265). I see MAYBE 1 here but 2 is a reach. Plays 3,7,8,9 & 11 are strong plays compared to the other 6. Per Front Office Sports, a record 1.1 billion in wagers are projected 2 legal sportsbooks across the U.S.. Good Luck, Bet Responsibly & See You BACK @ The Window! NOTES: See separate article Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 Super Bowl Record: 7-4 for 64% NFL Playoffs: 16-8 for 67% Last 3 Super Bowls' Overall Record: 20-7 for 74% Mike's 2022-23 NFL Overall Final Record: 56-37 for a not too shabby 60% Mike's NFL Record Last 3 Seasons: 135-65 for an excellent 68%

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