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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's New Year's Day Bowls Analysis/Review/Notes

Mike Handzelek's New Year's Day Bowls Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Jan 4, 2019
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Tuesday, January 01, 2019 Kentucky vs. Penn State (NCAAF) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -225 Penn State Rating: 10* Mike's CFB Bowl Game Of The Year (LOSS) This draws the end of the Trace McSorley era @ Penn State. He now faces a Kentucky defense that stresses physicality WITH a running game led by Miles Sanders who has 1,223 rushing yards & 9 TD's coming into this fracas. McSorley's bowl experience can't be overstated. his passing numbers dropped off a bit with a 16/6 TD/INT ratio, 2,284 yards passing & 723 rushing yards for 11 more TD's. HC James Franklin's list of playmakers will not be complete without leading WR K.J. Hamler who has hauled down 6 TD's & has a brilliant 17.4 YPC average. My bottom line says the lines have caught up with Kentucky (2-5 ATS the last 7). Look for Penn State to load the box on frequent occasions & DARE the Wildcats to pass & forego handing the ball off to RB Bennie Snell Jr.. Remember, the Nittany Lions have already beaten run-oriented teams like Maryland, Pitt & Wisconsin to the tune of51-6, 38-3 & 22-10. Let's go to Camping World Stadium in Orlando to play the PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS as 10 Star CFB Bowl Game Of The Year! Texas vs. Georgia (NCAAF) - 8:45 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 13.5/-124 Texas Rating: 9* Mike's Tuesday Night Bailout Bowl Play (WIN) Wow! Talk about a long hiatus! these 2 haven't met since the Cotton Bowl back in the season of 83'. This game will find a Georgia team that's still crushed from blowing a 2 TD lead versus Alabama in the SEC Championship. The letdown situation here cannot be over-emphasized. If those who haven't followed Tom Herman's career, let me point out how his teams have responded in the underdog role. The last 14 chances as a HC have seen 12 tickets cashed @ the window on his teams when they're getting points. When you include underdog records when he was an offensive coordinator AND a head coach, you'll find a second-to-none 23-2 ATS record. The Burnt Orange have a great QB in Sam Ehlinger whose 25/5 TD/INT ratio & 13 rushing TD's gives the Longhorns that added dynamic they've missed the last few seasons. With WR & deep threat Lil' Jordan Humphrey (79 receptions good for 1,109 yards & 9 TD's) aiding Ehlinger, they have the offensive arsenal to hang with a potent Junkyard Dogs' running game of D'Andre Swift (1,037 yards rushing) & Elijah Holyfield (956 yards from scrimmage). My bottom line says one aspect of the Texas defense happens to be their run defense. They have allowed 109.3 YPG & 3.2 YPC entering in. The 9-4 SU Longhorns have lost games by 5,3 1 & 12. Keep those numbers in mind. Even though HC Kirby Smart's Georgia entry has a solid offensive line, I feel they will under-achieve here as they're still disappointed that they were left out of the National Championship Playoff. Backing past SEC teams coming off a big disappointment have proven to be money-burners. The X-Factor here is clearly the best-prepared team which directly reflects the HC. That HC is Tom Herman who has NOT LOST as an underdog versus non-conference foes (6-0 ATS) OR coming off a SU loss (6-0 ATS)! The big dagger for us closely examines Big 12 bowl dogs of 10 or higher (with a win percentage of 58% or better). The last 9 teams fitting this criteria have enhanced your pants to the tune of 8-1 ATS! Are you ready yet? Let's invade the Mercedes-Benz Superdome for Louisiana's Sugar Bowl to play the TEXAS LONGHORNS (buying to a key + 14 1/2) as my Tuesday night Bailout Bowl Play! NOTES: It was unfortunate to see Trace McSorley go down to a broken foot. It took away his triple threat appeal & made the PSU offense much easier to solve. Kentucky optimized their advantages & played their "A" game on offense with Bennie Snell taking charge @ the line of scrimmage. It was tough losing a rare Game Of The Year since we originally had Texas early on but went with PSU later in the week. We all saw what the Longhorns did to an uninspired Georgia squad that clearly looked gassed. We'll be back this weekend for our final CFB pick for the Alabama-Clemson National Championship game. Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 Overall Record: 29-17 for 63% Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 Bowl Record: 5-5 for 50%

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