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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 7 Analysis/Review/Notes/Power Rankings


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 25, 2021
   
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Sunday, October 24, 2021 Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-115 Cincinnati Bengals Rating: 8* AFC North Battle For Supremacy Play (WIN) Usually the home team rules & pulls away from their closest rival in these type of games. The eye test says 5-1 SU & 1st-place in the AFC North Baltimore has just put up 34 on the Chargers & 31 on the Colts in back-to-back weeks. However, this Lou Anarumo 4-3 scheme of 4-2 SU Cincinnati can provide problems for QB Lamar Jackson & the Ravens' offense. DC Anarumo has his defense peaking ranking 8th in total "D" & 8th versus the run. The difference on defense is where Baltimore is giving up numbers through the air. Ranking 25th & facing playmakers like QB Joe Burrow & WR's Ja'Marr Chase & Tyler Boyd can become problematic. The resurgence of RB Joe Mixon out of the backfield & as a pass catcher adds a dynamic to the Bengals they didn't have on a consistent basis last season. Yes, the Ravens come into this with momentum on a 5-game winning streak since losing to Las Vegas 33-27 in OT in their opener. However, the Colts went into Inner Harbor & played smash-mouth football with John Harbaugh's squad earlier. These teams are very familiar with each other & are very hard to separate. Numbers show Baltimore is just 1-6 ATS as divisional home favorites of less than 10. So we're going to M & T Bank Stadium on the Chesapeake Bay to play the CINCINNATI BENGALS (buying to + 8 1/2) as my AFC North Battle For Supremacy Play! Washington Football Team vs. Green Bay Packers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 9/-110 Washington Football Team Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (LOSS) Don't count out the WFT just yet! God will you get a nickname! I have a number I'm playing this @ so don't get afraid when the line moves away from the value. We lay it, play & win over 60% or more. That's the number to remember. The oddsmakers have under-estimated Washington as their 1-5 ATS record suggests. But here it will be a different story. Think for a minute. Do you think Aaron Rodgers wants to run up the score here knowing that Arizona (more than likely @ 7-0 SU) is on deck @ their house on a short week this Thursday? I don't think so! The WFT isn't looking ahead to Denver so they want this one right here! They have enough of capable playmakers like RB J.D. McKissic & WR Terry McLaurin who QB Taylor Heinicke will work effectively with throughout against a banged-up secondary. In this type of game, player statistics WON'T WORK! Have the Packers covered once in the last 3 of this series? The answer is no. In fact, the Cheeseheads have covered just 3 of 12 when favored by 8 or more. Their opponent today is also an over-looked 7-3 their last 10 versus the NFC North. Let's make way to Lambeau Field in Wisconsin to play the WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (buying to + 11 1/2) as my 9* NFL Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas Raiders (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -130 Las Vegas Raiders Rating: 8* Mike's 8* NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) While many are pointing to a flash in the pan after the storm by the Raiders last week, I'm not that convinced. Yes, the Philadelphia Eagles get OT Lane Johnson back this week. However, QB Jalen Hurts (whose been erratic for the most part) has not come close to the performance of his adversary in Derek Carr who comes in with a nifty 10/4 TD/INT ratio. Besides getting a healthy RB in Josh Jacobs, Carr has established WR Henry Ruggs as a bonafide deep threat. Let's see if CB Darius Slay can contain him for 4 quarters. Even though the Birds got the cover but were never close to a threat versus TB last week @ home where the Boo Birds were vocal throughout. My bottom line starts by looking @ some key numbers. Philadelphia has come off Buccaneers' games to go a perfect 0-7 ATS. This series has leaned heavily toward Las Vegas (5 covers in their last 6) as the oddsmakers have continually over-valued the Eagles. Philly has not fared too well in non-conference road games of late going just 1-4 ATS. I feel that Derek Carr looks more relaxed WITHOUT the presence of former HC Jon Gruden & seems to have a better continuity with his offense. Let's jet out to Allegiant Stadium to play the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for the "W" as my 8* NFL Public Missed Perception Play! NOTES: Even though it was a great week, it could have been a perfect one. For those who missed the Washington game. They somehow lost by 2 TD's after out-playing the Packers most of the day. They had a 25-19 first down edge, out-rushed them 195-57, had a 430-304 total yardage advantage & had the ball for close to 6 minutes more in time of possession. How could actually happen? Well, they self-destructed several times inside the 10 including an INT in the end zone going for the 4th-quarter cover. Nevertheless, the day was quickly redeemed by the Joe Burrow & the Bengals' outright upset & the Raiders both breezing to double-digit wins. We'll build on that as we move on to my Week 7 NFL Power Rankings. 1) Arizona Cardinals -- They're still the elite (1st in point differential @ +111) but will be challenged this Thursday @ home versus GB & then again versus the Rams in Round 2 on MNF in Week 14. 2) Los Angeles Rams -- They hold that quality win over TB but will be tested @ Lambeau next month. 3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- They're just 1-1 versus winning teams & play @ New Orleans on Halloween (a team that beat them twice by double-digits in the regular season last year). 4) Buffalo Bills -- Should be 8-2 when they go to New Orleans on Thanksgiving night but will really be tested @ TB in Week 14. 5) Green Bay Packers -- There's been too many close calls for Rodgers. They take a 1-1 SU record versus winning teams into 7-0 Arizona Thursday night. 6) Cincinnati Bengals -- They're tied for 4th-best in point differential (+61) with the Rams & hold double-digit road wins over Pittsburgh & Baltimore. 7) Dallas Cowboys -- A weaker schedule has them @ 7. They're 5-1 but only beat 1 winning team thus far. They should climb higher since they don't face another winning team until a Thanksgiving home game with Las Vegas. 8) Tennessee Titans -- Yes, they beat Buffalo. However, a blowout loss to Arizona & an in-excusable loss to the Jets has them lower. 9) Baltimore Ravens -- A talented team but have a 1-2 record versus winning teams. 10) New Orleans Saints -- They have a great "D" but have faced a weak schedule. They faced 1 winning team in Week 1 (GB) & we'll see how they handle TB this year this Halloween. 11) Los Angeles Chargers -- They have wins over Cleveland & Las Vegas but 2-2 versus winning teams. They won't face another winning team until Dec. 5th @ Cincy. 12) Las Vegas Raiders -- They're 1-1 versus winning teams & face Cincinnati @ home & go to Dallas to end November. 13) Cleveland Browns -- They're 0-2 versus winning teams & immediately face 2 divisional rivals in Pittsburgh & Cincinnati. 14) Minnesota Vikings -- They're 0-3 versus winning teams but an OT loss to Cincy & a 1-point loss @ Arizona has them close. They now face a buzz saw the next 4 weeks versus teams with a combined record of 20-6! Near Misses: Kansas City Chiefs -- 1-4 versus winning teams? Will their offensive line put Patrick Mahomes on the IR list? Pittsburgh Steelers -- They have 2 cream puffs up after Cleveland. We'll know more about them after their November games are over. Indianapolis Colts -- It was a great win versus SF. They face a pivotal home game versus Tennessee immediately on deck. Look for a deeper card when I see you in Week 8 of 18. Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 7 Record: 2-1 67% Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 NFL Overall Record: 12-9 for a rising 57%
 


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