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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 5 Analysis/Review/Notes/Power rankings


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 12, 2021
   
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Monday, October 11, 2021 Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 8:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/100 Indianapolis Colts Rating: 8* Mike's MNF Mushes Nightmare Play (WIN) The mushes had an excellent weekend as the favorites went 10-5-1 or 11-5 ATS in some places. One of the things you have to look @ is strength of schedule. The Horseshoes' opponents went 10-10 (played 2 divisional leaders) thus far while the Ravens foes' have gone 8-12 (played zero divisional leaders) to date. Baltimore comes into this game in an AFC West sandwich having taken on Denver with the L.A. Chargers on deck. I feel Indianapolis is in desperation mode @ 1-3 SU while the Black Birds are a fat & happy 3-1 SU. Much accolades have been given to QB Lamar Jackson thus far. However, his 4/3 TD/INT ratio is pedestrian compared to Carson Wentz who chimes in with a 5/1 in that same category. Even though the Ravens hold the edge on offense, the Colts are 8th in total defense compared to Baltimore's 18th (& they had the easier schedule). Who keeps the offense on the field more with 3rd down conversions? Well, its actually the Black Birds' "D" who are one of the worst in opponents' converting 3rd & long situations. These 2 met last season in Indianapolis where Harbaugh's Heroes won 24-10 in Week 9 despite being out-gained 339 to 266. The Purple & Black are lucky to be 3-1 as the Raiders & KC games could have easily went the other way. After 4 games, they remain just +13 in net points. This number is clearly an over-reaction by the public over what they saw last week. This game represents a 3rd straight road game for Indy. Surprisingly, these teams in the 3rd of 3 travelers have gone a take-me-to-the-window 8-2 spanning the last 4 seasons. Diggin' it much deeper reveals primetime dogs are a very profitable 36-25 ATS (just under 60%) over the past 2 seasons. Since last season, HC Frank Reich gets his squad to produce when away from Indiana as they come in with a solid 7-1 ATS record. With the home team have key injuries to their RB & O-Line, there's only 1 way to go here. Combine this with the Colts being a very focused 8-2 ATS before a divisional home game & I think we got something brewing. Let's trek to Maryland's Inner Harbor @ M&T Bank Stadium to play the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (buying to a key + 10 1/2) as my 8* MNF Mushes Nightmare Play! Sunday, October 10, 2021 San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5.5/-110 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN off the buy) The Jon Q Public majority is going gaga over the NFL Flavor Of The Week Arizona Cardinals. Don't think the oddsmakers forgot to properly adjust this number due to the likelihood of SF to start rookie QB on the road Trey Lance. Remember, the pre-season line for this game was a pick'em. Why is this line @ 5 1/2? Because the oddsmakers have to compensate for Arizona going 5-1-1 ATS versus Cisco' their last 7. The Cardinals are feeling fat & happy after a multi-revenger win @ the Rams 37-20 last week. For this one, I really don't think Trey Lance is that much of a downgrade compared to Jimmy Garropolo. Crunching the numbers reveal 49ers' HC Kyle Shanahan delivers in a big way when installed as an away underdog. He sports an impressive 15-8 ATS record (65%) since his inception. San Francisco has their bye week coming on deck. Let's look @ them when taking on a divisional opponent during pre-bye week. The last 10 times this has happened, SF is a take-me-to-the-window 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS. My bottom line looks @ something similar (taking into account all 32 teams). It's a really strong system that's had huge success over the last 8 seasons. It simply says to PLAY ON any pre-bye week squad that's facing a divisional rival. In this given situation, these teams have gone a jalapeno-like 38-11 (77%) versus the number. Let's look @ HC Kliff Kingsbury (just 4-4 SU as a home favorite) & how fortunate he is to have QB Kyler Murray. In all 4 games thus far, Arizona has gone 4-0 SU, scored 30+ points in each & registered 400+ total yards of offense. This is super-rare since they're only the 5th team to do so in the last 51 seasons. The dagger for us looks @ a system that looks @ the 49ers when coming off consecutive SU losses as chalk. Besides being a window-cashing 12-3 SU & 11-3-1 ATS in this situation, there is also a sub-set system that adds on the same criteria plus taking on an .800 or better opponent. Against these elite squads, the "Boys By The Bay" are a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS! Let's motor to State Farm Stadium in Glendale to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 9* NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-110 Cleveland Browns Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Later Game Steamer (LOSS) I told you the 1st Flavor Of The Week. Now, let's move on to the second one. That just happens to be the Los Angeles Chargers & their QB phenom Justin Herbert. Yes, Herbert is going places. However, he & his SoFi Sizzlers are fresh off 2 gigantic divisional wins over the Kansas City Chiefs & the Las Vegas Raiders. The problem is we saw 2 big "A" games by the Chargers (versus 2 weak defenses) while Cleveland looked flat in their 14-7 win @ Minnesota. DC Joe Woods' 4-3 defensive scheme is far superior to what Herbert faced the first 4 weeks. The Browns' "D" (held Minny to 255 total yards last week) is 2nd in total defense, gives up 11.3 PPG, is 3rd versus the pass and the rush while tied for 2nd in sacks with 14. On the flip side of the coin, the L.A. defense are tied for last (31st) in sacking the QB & are last in rushing defense (32nd). Cleveland's QB Baker Mayfield knows his check downs & has the best combination in the backfield in the NFL with Nick Chubb (362 yards rushing & 3 TD's) & Kareem Hunt (234 rushing yards, 121 receiving yards & 3 TD's). OC Alex Van Pelt has his Ground N' Pound offense in high gear & controlled the time of possession versus the Vikings coming away with a +11-minute advantage. My bottom line says it's bad news for a Chargers' "D" giving up 5.8 YPR who now gets to face an offense who rushes for 5.1 yards a pop AND leads the NFL with 177 YPG on the ground. When digging in deep into the numbers, the database reveals that Los Angeles is a no-show 2-11-1 versus the number when installed as a home favorite. It's all set. Let's go west coast to a probable neutral crowd @ SoFi Stadium in Inglewood to play the CLEVELAND BROWNS (buying to + 4 1/2 but sprinkling some pasta on the ML) as my 9* NFL Later Game Steamer! NOTES: We'll take a 1/2-point away from a 3-0 NFL any time. The 7-point teaser win with San Francisco & Cleveland was nice to go along with a 2-1 week. It was hard to believe that Cleveland amassed 532 yards of offense (230 on the ground), won the turnover war 1-0, had a 13-minute possession time advantage, led by 7 with under 4 minutes but still lost the game? The lines are getting sharper so we need to concentrate on the key number of 7 a little more. Like in the SF @ Arizona game, we bought to a key + 7 1/2 & won. The 49ers out-gained the Cardinals 338-303, out-rushed them 152 to 93, had a +4 minute advantage in time of possession but somehow lost the game SU. The Colts pick was never in doubt as the points ruled throughout. Why? Because Carson Wentz is settling in with his new personnel. At 1-4 SU, their toughest games remaining are @ Buffalo & Arizona. The rest of their schedule are winnable games against a much softer slate. The jury is still out. At any rate, we'll settle for a 3-1 record the last 4 NFL's & gear up for Week 6. My newly-adjusted NFL Power Rankings are as follows: 1) Arizona Cardinals (let's see how they handle Cleveland & green bay back-to-back) 2) Los Angeles Rams (they can beat TB in the playoffs if lineup remains intact) 3) Buffalo Bills (proved that they're a scary team that nobody wants to face) 4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Brady's "O" scoring 33+ a game but their pass "D" is just BAD right now) 5) Green Bay Packers (a softer schedule for the most but Week 8 @ Arizona's coming) 6) Dallas Cowboys (a very dynamic offense-Top 3 but the passing "D" has to improve to win in the playoffs-@ Kansas City Wk. 11) 7) Baltimore Ravens (secondary needs to improve-Chargers are coming this week) 8) Los Angeles Chargers (getting better & shows it can play from behind-@ Ravens Wk. 6) 9) Cleveland Browns (2nd-ranked "D" collapsed versus Herbert & Co. -Baker has to finish off good teams) 10) New Orleans Saints (if Winston grasps his offense & limits TO's, they can make & win some in the playoffs) 11) Cincinnati Bengals (Burrow & Co. still a work in progress) 12) Kansas City Chiefs (faced a tough schedule to go 2-3- we'll wait & see when they entertain GB in Week 9) 13) Denver Broncos (@ Cleveland Week 7-Can they score enough to steal away a 5, 6, or 7 seeded AFC wild card berth?) 14) Tennessee Titans (Buffalo & KC await-Is their passing on both sides of the ball going to rise to the occasion?) Just missed--- San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings. Mike Handzelek's Last 11 Football Plays: 73% Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 NFL Overall Record: 8-7 for a climbing 53%
 


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