Monday, September 25, 2017 Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 8:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.0/-110 Arizona Cardinals Pick Title: Mike's 8 Star Strong Monday Night Delighter (LOSS) The injury, flu & turnover bugs hit us strong yesterday. Let's bank on the Cardinals to play true to form in a game where they been installed home underdogs for the 1st time in 4 seasons. The Cowboys have struggled away from home late last season & at the start of this season. Until they show us the consistency they put on the table last season, they are a lay against team in the road favorite role. Yes, Carson Palmer is minus RB David Johnson. However, lets not overreact to a team that still plays some pretty solid "D" @ home. Here's where were going. At the University of Phoenix Stadium, lets play this one @ OUR NUMBER grabbing + 4 1/2 @ -170 as my 8 Star Strong Monday Night Delighter! Sunday, September 24, 2017 Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -117 Cleveland Browns Pick Title: 9 Star Ugliest Pig Game Of The Week (LOSS) Yes, we usually reserve this play for the "ugly" pig. But since that didn't seem to be harsh enough, "ugliest" was much more exact. For this matchup, you have to throw out all the meaningless trends since they were basically tabulated with either Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning involved. Under normal circumstances, Cleveland is definitely a "play against" team as a favorite. However, these are FAR from normal circumstances. No, these 2 starting QB's aren't setting any QBR records wuth DeShone Kizer @ 55.6 & Jacoby Brissett @ 65.3. However, Brissett just recently joined the team & is still learning a new system (radically) while Kizer has had months since the draft to grasp the playbook. Neither are a bargain, but what separates these 2 teams is clearly found in passing numbers & the defense. When both offenses seem inept, the defense usually rises to the top. What stands out here is that Indianapolis has been out-passed by a 340 to 616-yard count after sacks. But the Browns have out-passed their opponents (2 tough D's in Pittsburgh & Baltimore) 473 to 456. Remember, the Colts have NOT thrown a TD pass this season. In other areas, Cleveland is getting a half yard higher then Indy, 3.3 to 2.8. My bottom line here is the Browns defense. DC Gregg Williams (took over the fired Ray Horton) seems to have his new 4-3 scheme working (compared to Horton's 3-4). Williams is dialing up way more blitzing & pressure. Wait til' #1 overall draft pick Myles Garrett comes back! Remember, the Steelers' offense only scored 14 points (7 by the D') versus Williams' unit even without Garrett. The dagger for us has to be Colts' going 1-3 SU their last 4 @ home as they're heavily relying on TE Jack Doyle to put up big numbers (leading receiver with 10 catches for 120 yards). That doesn't sound like a winning recipe. If the Cleveland secondary executes Williams' cover schemes for deep routes, they win this game. I like our chances there MORE than having to rely on an Indy "D" that's giving up 325 passing yards per game. Let's go to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indiana to play the CLEVELAND BROWNS as my 9 Star Ugliest Pig Game Of The Week! Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-115 Buffalo Bills Pick Title: 8 Star 2nd Rare Ugly Pig Play of The Week (WIN) This seems like a far-fetched play with a lot of hope. But when the situation presents itself, we cannot ignore. There's two things to remember here. Denver is fresh off 2 home wins where they combined to score over 60 points & are now on the road. It's a road where they CANNOT exploit fatigue to their opponent in a mile high altitude. We take BIG notice of Bills' rookie HC Sean McDermott spending extra time to devise a game plan to defeat his former team, the Broncos. His QB Tyrod Taylor will be stretching the field & running routes away from CB's Aqib Talib & Chris Harris. Both defenses have earned respect thus far with Denver limiting opponents to 52 rushing yards per game while Buffalo's "D" chimes in @ an impressive 57.5. Despite DT Marcell Dareus being a late scratch, expect DL coach Mark Waufle to motivate 2-year men Adolphus Washington or Deandre Coleman to take over that role that is promising since Denver rookie LT Garrett Bolles went down with a broken ankle & G Ron Leary going down with an injury. With RT Menelik Watson struggling in protection, I feel that QB Trevor Siemian (has had 2 INT's and a lost fumble this year) won't enjoy much time to throw as he did the first 2 weeks @ home. My bottom line says that this might wind up being a game between whose more effective between RB's C.J. Anderson & LeSean "Shady" McCoy. I also feel there's a lot to say about teams that defeat the Cowboys (Denver). They've performed sub-par the following game losing their last 7 of 10 ATS. History shows us that the Bills have been the bargain winning the last 6 of 7 ATS in this series. With Buffalo's last-minute drive stalling @ the 2 versus Carolina, I feel they'll becoming in with a big chip on their shoulder to finish the deal. Let's go to New Era Field (like old Ralph Wilson better) in Orchard Park to play the BUFFALO BILLS (we'll take them @ + 4 1/2 minus 155) to force the Broncos to win by a TD as my 8 Star 2nd Rare Ugly Pig Play Of The Week! Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -130 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick Title: 9 Star Fresher Team Better Chemistry Play (WIN) The Buccaneers came out fresh as expected against the Bears in last week's 29-7 rout (26-0 @ the half) @ Raymond James Stadium where they enjoyed a 6+ minute time of possession advantage. Expect more of the same here against a Minnesota team who appears to have lost their identity without QB Sam Bradford. When or where Bradford decides to get behind center, he'll clearly lose all the continuity he built in his near flawless performance versus New Orleans in Week 1. The problem here is this. The Vikings' offense struggled mightily to move the ball with Case Keenum who threw for 167 & no TD's versus Pittsburgh last week. Mike Zimmer's "D" is a good one but not when it becomes taxed & gasped by being on the field too long. I expect more of the same this week as Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston directs time-consuming drives by utilizing RB's Jacquizz Rodgers & Peyton Barber, the later filling in for the suspended Doug Martin serving a 4-game rest. Winston is surrounded by enough playmakers as WR's Mike Evans & DeSean Jackson will make their presence felt. Winston (who had 18 INT's last year) looks like he's making more hot reads & is better poised to sustain longer drives. My bottom line says Buccaneer DC Mike Smith's has jelled as it yielded just 337 yards & 17.1 PPG in the 2nd half of last season. Smith runs out of a 4-3 alignment but throws in a 3-4 & a little of a 3-3-5 in certain situations. The dagger for us has to be the resiliency of the Buccaneers on the road having already defeated Atlanta, Carolina & KC SU last year. The odds-makers haven't caught up with TB yet as they've enjoyed a 7-2 SU & ATS record of late beating the spread by a total of 76 points. They now face an offense with an OL featuring 4 new starters & possibly Keenum (no INT's but still a low 65.9 QBR) to protect. I love our chances against a Minnesota team that faces 3 Black N' Blue divisional games in a row immediately following this tilt. Let's go U.S.Bank Stadium to play the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS as my 9 Star Fresher Team Better Chemistry Play! Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.0/-105 Los Angeles Chargers Pick Title: 8 Star Spread Adjustment Play Of The Week (LOSS) Yes, these same Chargers are on a 1-8 SU run 7 losers of 7 in a row. However, they did beat a tough Broncos' team @ home earlier last season. Look for PK Younghoe Koo (1-for-4 in FG's) to shake off early rust that's resulted in an 0-2 SU record than a 2-0. For this matchup, both QB's come in with some decent number with Alex Smith with 619 passing yards, 78% completions & a 5/0 TD/INT ratio while Philip Rivers throwing for 523 yards, 74% completions & a 4/1 TD/INT ratio. In pass protection, Rivers has had only 2 compared to Smith's 7. Even though, KC looks like it's poised for another playoff run, look for the odds-makers to take advantage of this. The Chiefs went 6-0 SU in a tough AFC West division last season. I don't see that same scenario playing out this season. Even though Kansas City went 12-4 SU with a vanilla schedule last season, they still struggled on the road early with consecutive road losses in Houston & Pittsburgh. It's tough going against Andy "The Walrus" Reid, but KC takes on a different complexion in the favorite role. Rookie sensation RB Kareem Hunt will get his touches (his 5 TD's in his 1st 2 career games was only 2nd to Dutch Sternaman's 6 with the Decatur Staleys in 1920) but I feel not enough for a blowout. Why? Because this rivalry (114th meeting) runs deep all the way back to the AFL's inaugural season in 1960 when KC's franchise was the Dallas Texans & the Chargers were actually here in L.A.. The new-look Chargers in L.A. have played competitively with their first 2 games being decided by 3 points or less. They now are home for a 2nd consecutive week in their new 27,000-seat stadium (Rams & Chargers will share a new 70,000-seat stadium @ Hollywood Park in 2020) against a team that's gone full-tilt versus New England & Philadelphia in back-to-back weeks. in the numbers, 2 of 4 in this series & at the Charger have been decided by a FG. My bottom line says that Rivers does has enough playmakers (RB Melvin Gordon-157 yards rushing & receiving & WR Keenan Allen-135 receiving yards) to keep it close. Let's go to brand-spankin' new Stub Hub Center in Carson to play the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS as my 8 Star Spread Adjustment play Of The Week! What We Learned From Week 2: It was one of those rare weeks where the losers had a winning week. NOTE That usually happens between 3 to 6 weeks throughout a 17-week season. On MNF, Arizona outplayed Dallas & outgained them by 60 yards. They missed an extra point-type FG & a TD was called back . Guess what? That was the margin of victory by the Cowboys. QB Palmer seems to be on his last legs after getting sacked 6 times! Touching (thought that his man was down) him (no whistle) instead of tackling him on the spot led to a gift Dallas TD has me wondering if the Cards are becoming a bookie team similar to L.S.U. the past few decades. Still can't believe Tampa Bay's "D" gets the injury & flu bug & sidelines half of their defense. The Result? Case Keenum (that's right Keenum) looks like a Pro-Bowler putting up 35 points. The same result came for us after the Browns hold back key defensive personnel due to injury to now make Jacoby Brissett look like a veteran QB. Kizer throws 3 INT's was the Browns' downfall despite out-gaining Indy for the game. The L.A. Chargers played 2 close ones before Sunday's loss to Kansas City where Rivers got a relapse in color-blindness throwing 3 INT's. On the bright side saw the new Bills' "D" (minus the Ryan's) play solid ball with 2 INT's & their offense grind out 33 running plays as they left with a double-digit underdog win over the Broncos. Expect a 10 Star this Sunday. The lines are going where we want them so far! 2017-18 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 7-8-----47%
 

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