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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 2 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 22, 2022
   
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Sunday, September 18, 2022 Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7/-110 Cincinnati Bengals Rating: 9* Mike's 9 Star NFL Road Warrior Play (LOSS) 'm not buying for a second the Super Bowl loser jinx the following season here! OC Brian Callahan (who'll be aware of where Rookie Of The Year & MLB Micah Parsons will be lining up as well as CB Trevon Diggs here) & his QB Joe Burrow were victimized by 5 turnovers last week (including an early pick-6 game-changer) against a pumped Steelers' 3-4 defense (though they gained 462 yards) that were anchored by the now lost for the season OLB T.J. Watt. Notice that teams with a -5 turnover deficit USUALLY lose by 3 TD's or more. Cincy took Pitt to OT before losing. It capped a crazy week that saw for the 1st time both Super Bowl contestants came back to lose SU in Week 1 in 23 years! Don't look for that same debacle to happen against a Dallas "D" that should be missing S Jayron Kearse (sprained MCL) & DE Tarell Basham (thigh injury). However, the X-Factor is a really hidden one for me. It miraculously appears on the Cincinnati O-Line as the Bengals just signed OT La'el Collins to a 3-year, $21 million contract. Why is that so significant? Because Collins is FRESH coming off playing for Jerry Jones' Cowboys. Don't think Collins won't be sharing the majority of that playbook of the already-depleted Dallas offense who lost QB Dak Prescott to a hand injury (estimated 6-8 weeks after thumb surgery), have OG Connor McGovern out indefinitely with a high ankle sprain, All-Pro Left Tackle Tyron Smith is on IR & WR's Michael Gallup (coming off a torn ACL) & James Washington (right foot fracture) hurt. The Bengals' DC Lou Anarumo already knows newly-inserted QB Cooper Rush will be giving heavy doses of the play calls to RB's Tony Pollard & Ezekiel Elliott & WR CeeDee Lamb. In the numbers show Super Bowl losers installed as a Week 2 favorite have gone an absurd 25-4-1 SU. My bottom line says Cincinnati excels going 7-2 ATS following a SU loss & has gone a near-perfect 6-1 ATS after accumulating over 350 yards. What really stands out is their road-tough mentality going 5-0 ATS their last 5 & is an NFL-best 13-6 versus the number in roadies the past 2 seasons. Crunching numbers for the Star Helmets reveal an alarming 1-4 ATS number following a double-digit home loss as well as a 2-6 spread mark after scoring less than 15 points. This game ALSO represents payback time for a bitter 30-7 home loss to Dallas 2 seasons ago. The Cowboys won't go down without a fight but the over-adjusted line (Cowboys would have been favored by a 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 points with Prescott) has us playing this game under a FG. The Silver & Blue are also a dismal 5-7 SU without Dak in the lineup. Burrow should be patient & take what DC Dan Quinn's defense (designed to limit big plays) gives him in finding ex-LSU speedster WR Ja'Marr Chase, WR Tyler Boyd & WR Tee Higgins as well as TE Hayden Hurst & Joe Mixon out of the backfield. Let's go to AT&T Stadium in Arlington to strategically play the CINCINNATI BENGALS (buying down to a key -2 1/2) as my 9 Star NFL Road Warrior Play! Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +0/-110 Carolina Panthers Rating: 8* Mike's Underdog Of The Day (WIN off the buy) While some books have Carolina as an underdog, we don't see it that way. Yes, the Giants under new HC Brian Daboll are looking like a feisty bunch. However, they come in here with a few defensive injuries to CB's Pinnock & McCloud along with Thibodeaux that should keep the Panthers "IN IT TO WIN IT". Crunching the number show the New Yorkers carry a no-show 1-7-1 ATS as a favorite in non-divisional games. Let's go to MetLife Stadium & side with the M&M (Mayfield & McCaffery) Boys in the CAROLINA PANTHERS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my 8 Star Underdog Of The Day! Wednesday, September 21, 2022 Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -292 New York Yankees Rating: 9* Mike's Humpday Hottie (WIN) Luis Severino's mechanics have shined the last few starts. Let's ride the momentum from last night & play PITTSBURGH PIRATES-NO SCORE-1st Inning for 9 Stars! NOTES: It was another non-perfect week (Cincy became the 1st AFC champion to start 0-2 in 23 years) as I said to proceed the 1st few NFL weeks with caution until patterns & solid analytics start to form. The pre-season is now shorter so teams start to gel much later than usual in a longer 17-game regular season. Even though Carolina squeaked out a win for us with the points, the Cincinnati O-Line couldn't figure out how to maintain a cleaner pocket for Joe Burrow. Why? Because the Bengals offensive game plan was horrible. They refused to take what Dallas gave them & got greedier with riskier routes leading to collapsed pockets (Burrow now sacked an NFL-worst 13 times in the 1st 2 weeks & are 2nd worst in QB sack % to the Bears). It was the craziest early week overall where we saw 3 teams (Cleveland, Baltimore & Las Vegas) lose after having a 13+ point, 4th-quarter lead with 1 1/2 minutes to go (tied an NFL all-time record). In Cleveland's case (they haven't started 2-0 in 26 years!) with the Jets beating them 31-30, that broke a win streak of 2,229 games by teams up by at least 13 points with under 2 minutes to go. By the way, the last time this happened (in 2001) was the Browns losing again in Week 9 versus the Da Bears! This time around it was Cade York's missed PAT with under 2 to go opened the door for Robert Saleh's crew in Week 2. That win ALSO broke a prolonged streak of 13 consecutive September SU losses (1-12 ATS) by the Fly Boys with the Joe Flacco-led comeback. We also saw a terrible John Harbaugh decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 in Miami territory up 2 TD's with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th. Baltimore failed & opened the door for Tua Tagovailoa (469 passing yards, 28-pt 4th quarter & 6 TD's) to stay hot hitting WR's Tyreek Hill (11 catches, 190 yards & 2 TD's) & Jaylen Waddle (11 receptions for 171 markers in receptions & 2 scores) that resulted in a 42-38 shocker that left rookie HC Mike McDaniel 2-0 in Inner Harbor. Finally, we saw the super-talented QB Kyler Murray (down 16 to the Raiders on the road with under 9 minutes to go) scramble 3 yards for a TD & then hit A.J. Green by the end line for the 2-point conversion to force OT. A 59-yard fumble return TD by Byron Murphy, Jr. capped a 29-23 Arizona comeback win that marked the 7th consecutive time they won SU as road pups. Stay patient & look for more NFL plays in the upcoming weeks when things start to get consistent. My NFL Rankings will be UP after Week 3. Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Overall Record: 2-2 for a rough 50% (2-3 at this point last year) Mike Handzelek's 2022 MLB Overall Record: 50-16 for a career-best 76% His Last 27 MLB Plays: 24-3 for 89%
 


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