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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 16 Analysis/Review/Notes/Power Rankings

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 31, 2021
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Sunday, December 26, 2021 Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7/-110 Atlanta Falcons Rating: 10* Mike's NFL Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (WIN off the buy) Don't think for a second that the Atlanta Falcons & 13-year veteran QB Matt Ryan (3,340 passing yards & an 18/11 TD/INT ratio) will be under-estimating the Lions. This is the same team that traveled to this venue last year as Detroit got an 11-yard TD pass from Matt Stafford to TE T.J. Hockenson (currently on injured reserve) @ the buzzer for a 23-22 upset win. This game will be a drop off in talent since the Dirty Birds 0-5 SU home record was against way stiffer competition like Philadelphia, New England & Tampa Bay. Detroit may be 2-11-1 SU but they're also a perfect 0-6-1 on the road with an offensive output of 14.7 PPG. They've only reached 10 in their last 2 roadies @ Cleveland & Denver. It looks like Lions' backup (ex-Packer out of Eastern Kentucky) QB Tim Boyle (77 yards passing & an 0/2 TD/INT ratio versus Cleveland) is scheduled to make his 2nd NFL start (Jared Goff is currently on the COVID-19 list). If somehow Goff becomes a go, this play will then be a NO PLAY & buy back before game time. I feel Matt Ryan should be able to take advantage of a Detroit secondary that's missing top CB Amani Oruwariye. He'll face a "D" that ranks 31st in sacks with 22. Atlanta catches the Lions in a fat & happy state since they're coming off giving the 10-3 @ the time Cardinals a 30-12 pounding in Detroit. On the flip side, we have a Black Birds' squadron that's coming of a 31-13 loss @ San Francisco. However, that was up against the NFL's 6th-best defense. With the absence In addition, of a few Detroit playmakers on both sides, Ryan now faces the 29th-best "D" in the Lions. What does that mean? It means rookie TE out of Florida Kyle Pitts (58 receptions for 847 receiving yards) & WR Russell Gage (50 catches for 555 yards in receptions) should have themselves a day in getting their 1st home win. Getting into some very strong analytics, Week 16 has been a thorn in the Lions' side as they've dropped their last 5 ATS. The Falcons are quite the opposite. They're not only a strong 8-1 ATS during Week 16, but they've also gone 4-1 ATS versus losing teams, 5-1 coming off an ATS loss & a take-me-to-the-window 9-1 ATS after taking on San Francisco. In addition, Lions' skipper Dan Campbell is 1-4 SU & ATS off of a SU win & a no-show 2-10 SU when installed as a road dog. Detroit is also a weak 12-27-2 ATS the past 21 seasons when on the road AND facing a team averaging 18.5 PPG or less. On the flip side, Falcons' HC Art Smith has been a very profitable 5-2 SU & ATS off of a SU loss. My bottom line says since Tim Boyle has been inserted this week, look for Atlanta to load the box to stop the run (with DeAndre Swift a go or a no go) & force turnovers. I feel a double-digit win here but since the backdoor cover has been more relevant this season than usual, we'll go to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium to play the ATLANTA FALCONS for the "W" on the ML as my 10 Star Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! NOTES & POWER RANKINGS: It was a shaky proposition but the Falcons got it done in a game which looked like they were looking ahead to highly-touted Buffalo this coming week. It was an embarrassment to the coaching staff with Detroit running 68 plays to Atlanta's 42. The Lions were forced to backup QB Tim Boyle (an Eastern Kentucky product) into duty for Jared Goff & still held a commanding +16 minute possession time advantage. But I did say it was going to be an ugly pig! The Top 14 NFL in my Power Rankings are as follows: 1) Kansas City Chiefs 2) Green Bay Packers 3) Los Angeles Rams 4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5) Dallas Cowboys 6) Tennessee Titans 7) Indianapolis Colts 8) Buffalo Bills 9) Arizona Cardinals 10) New England Patriots 11) Cincinnati Bengals 12) San Francisco 49ers 13) Los Angeles Chargers 14) Philadelphia Eagles Just Missed: Baltimore Ravens, Las Vegas Raiders & Miami Dolphins. Mike's NFL Record Last 9 Weeks: 18-1 for a surreal 95% (14-0 Last 14) Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 NFL Overall Regular Season Record: 29-10 for a personal best 74% Mike's NFL Overall Record Last 2 Regular Seasons Combined (33 Weeks): 61-22 for a career-high 74%

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