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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 15

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 24, 2021
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Tuesday, December 21, 2021 Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams (NFL) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7/-110 Seattle Seahawks Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN off the buy) Before we get into it, this game becomes a NO PLAY buy back IF Seattle's WR D.K. Metcalf (watch status) is a no go because of foot & back issues. It's been tough handicapping games with COVID-19 protocols of late. Early Friday, the Rams had 25 players in protocol with 9 new additions that included LB Von Miller & TE Tyler Higbee. On the flip side, Seattle was 1 of 4 teams without a player in protocol. There's plenty of things to like about the Hawks' in this one. For starters, they're still mathematically in it @ 5-8 SU with a softer schedule their last 3. Their defense is deceiving since stats show them last in total & passing "D". But when you look @ yards per point, they are 2nd & Top 5 (5th) in scoring defense. They've also gone 8 straight games allowing 23 points or less. In this series matchup, 3 of the last 4 games @ this venue have been 1-score games. Seattle has thrived in the divisional road dog role going a near-perfect 7-1 against the number. I like the fact the Hawks' are ALSO in double-revenge mode with the Rams knocking them off in Seattle 30-20 in last year's NFC Wild Card Playoffs AND beating them in a short week Thursday-Nighter 26-17 in Week 5 @ the same venue. QB Russell Wilson will be primed & ready this time around & specially motivated since he suffered that finger injury in that game which plagued him for a month plus afterward. Looking @ coaching analytics, L.A. HC Sean McVay hasn't been very dominant @ home (just 19-18 ATS for 51%) nor has he been off a SU win (25-28 versus the number for 47%). But on the flip side, Seahawks' skipper Pete Carroll (one of the few NFL HC's with 150 career SU wins & on a 9 straight winning seasons streak) has been gold as an underdog going 60-39 ATS for 61%, 10-4 versus the number as a dog of 7 or more for 71% while going a not too shabby 40-27 SU & 39-26 ATS (60%) in the month of December. He hasn't had a losing season since his 1st 2 years (2010 & 2011) with the Hawks' going 7-9 SU both seasons. With scheduling showing the Seahawks having a date with Chicago @ home next week & follow with Detroit & Arizona to end the regular season, I feel Seattle has a clear advantage since they catch the Rams off a Monday night football divisional showdown @ Arizona & have a roadie @ Minnesota on deck. To me, that certainly constitutes a definitive sandwich situation in favor of the Hawks'. Yes, WR Cooper Kupp will get his catches. However, losing Robert Woods is a big deal & was a chemistry disruptor that isn't compensated for with this line. There's many scenarios that point this game's outcome toward single-digits. We're going to the brand-spanking new So Fi Stadium (home of the Super Bowl) in Inglewood to play the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (buying to a key + 11 1/2) as my 8* NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Sunday, December 19, 2021 New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -9.5/-110 Miami Dolphins Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (WIN off the buy) The Dolphins had 2 weeks to put the New York Jets' flaws under the microscope. The 1st meeting in Week 11 was won by the Fish 24-17 @ MetLife Stadium. Miami's defense (a swarming 3-4 scheme) under DC Josh Boyer has been stellar holding their last 5 opponents to 17 points or under while yielding just 11 PPG over that span. New York is music to their ears with the Jets going the last 10 quarters without finding the end zone. However, the Flyboys being 3-10 ATS forces adjustments on OUR end. Dolphins' QB Tua Tagovailoa has flourished (for OC's George Godsey & Eric Studesville) in 12 personnel sets (1 RB & 2 TE's).He's become a rising up game manager & has the knack for finding the right matchups. The last 3 times out, Tua has completed 80% of his passes & has a 5/1 TD/INT ratio. He'll be facing a "D" that's not only 32nd in scoring defense (30.5 PPG) but also last in yards per play allowed (6.0). Other numbers show the Fish @ 7-0-1 ATS their L8 versus the Jets. It gets better! New York (5-20-1 ATS on grass) is a also perfect 0-8 versus the number versus AFC teams coming off a bye (Miami) & have not fared well in intra-divisional play going 5-18 ATS their L23 versus the AFC East. The turnover war comparison shows the Flyboys @ -16 (2nd worst next to Jacksonville's -19) in turnover differential while Miami is @ zero. The Jets have already been eliminated from the playoffs (for the 11th consecutive year) & have many key playmakers missing from their defense that's ranked 31st overall (only Seattle's is worse). It looks like they'll being giving the ball to rookie QB Zach Wilson (with a weak 6/11 TD/INT ratio) who'll not have WR's Elijah Moore & Corey Davis intact. Having RB Michael Carter (not CB Michael Carter-yes they have 2) @ 100% again is pivotal to Gang Green (8-21 ATS versus losing teams) reaching the end zone. NYJ HC Robert Saleh's numbers aren't good either. He's 3-10 SU & overall as a dog, 0-4 SU & ATS inside his division, 1-4 SU & ATS as a road pup & 0-2 SU & ATS in December. On the flip side, Miami's Brian Flores is 15-8 ATS @ home, 8-4 SU as a favorite, 5-1 SU & ATS as home chalk & is a nifty 8-2 ATS in December. My bottom line says Tagovailoa has enough speedsters to expose a Jets secondary throughout utilizing TE Mike Gesicki & WR's DeVante Parker plus top man Jaylen Waddle. Because of the inflated line but also blowout potential ( Miami won 24-0 @ this venue last year), I'm ready to go to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens to play the MIAMI DOLPHINS (laying the big lumber & buying down to -2 1/2) as my 9* NFL Earlybird Dependable! NOTES & POWER RANKINGS: I'm having a dream season (74%) again after ending last year's regular season @ 73%. Even Tua couldn't spoil it throwing an ill-advised sideline route (with a 7-point lead midway through the 4th quarter) for a pick-6. Miami won by 7 but the score was not indicative of the gap in total yards with the Fish holding a dominating 379 to 228 edge or their big 9-minute possession time edge. Miami lost the turnover war 3-1. Playing the Seahawks @ + 11 1/2 worked like a gem also as they covered from start to finish. Here's my NFL Team Power Rankings with their Playoff Probability Percentage. 1) Green Bay Packers (100%) 2) Kansas City Chiefs (99%) 3) Los Angeles Rams (99%) 4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (99%) 5) Dallas Cowboys (100%) 6) Tennessee Titans (99%) 7) Indianapolis Colts (75%) 8) New England Patriots (98%) 9) Arizona Cardinals (99%) 10) Los Angeles Chargers (75%) 11) Buffalo Bills (68%) 12) Cincinnati Bengals (55%) 13) Baltimore Ravens (57%) 14) San Francisco 49ers (70%) Near Misses In Order: 15) Pittsburgh Steelers (27%) 16) New Orleans Saints (55%) 17) Las Vegas Raiders (24%) 18) Philadelphia Eagles (33%) 19) Minnesota Vikings (28%) 20) Cleveland Browns (12%). Click articles & my name for accurate week-to-week, play-by-play records. Have a Merry Christmas & Happy New Year! Mike's NFL Record L8 Weeks: 17-1 for a surreal 94% (13-0 Last 13) Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 NFL Overall Regular Season Record: 28-10 for a personal best 74% Mike's NFL Record Last 2 Regular Seasons Combined (32 weeks): 60-22 for a career-high 73%

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