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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 14 Analysis/Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 14, 2020
   
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Sunday, December 13, 2020 Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7/-105 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rating: 10* Mike's Headliner Moneyliner (WIN) What? Laying the lumber? What would you do if a rested Kershaw's throwing for the Dodgers in a WS Game 7? If the shoe fits, just wear it! You're going to give 22-year veteran DC Todd Bowles 2 weeks to prepare for this game? In this battle of old NFC Central teams, there's NO EXCUSE in devising a game plan to neutralize Vikes' RB Dalvin Cook & force QB Kirk Cousins to beat you through the air. Numbers don't lie as the Buccaneers have given up a league-best 890 rushing yards & have sacked the QB 34 times in 12 games! In contrast, the Purple People Eaters' "D" have relinquished 1,452. On the other side of the ball, HC Bruce Arians & OC Bryan Leftwich should be able to tweak the offense to play INTO Tom Brady's STRENGTHS. Brady in comfortable play-action situations = winning football. It's that simple. He also faces a Minnesota "D" that's given up more TD passes (24) than everyone minus Dallas & is ranked 24th in total "D" & 26th against the pass. My bottom line says the 7-5 SU Buccaneers have had a more than BRUTAL schedule of late & that's the reason why their record isn't 9-3 or better. After this, it's Atlanta twice & Detroit which means it's LIKELY we see them 11-5 @ the end. Remember, these same Vikings have turned the ball over 5 times the last 2 weeks but they were fortunately playing Carolina & Jacksonville @ home. They won't be as lucky this week against a battle-tough rested squad. Forget the obvious trends all favoring Minny-ha-ha as we jet down to Raymond James Stadium to take the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for the "W" as my 10* Headliner Moneyliner! Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2/-110 Chicago Bears Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (WIN) There's always an UGLY PIG lurking in the background waiting to sneak up & bite you in the NFL! This week that ugly pig is the "MONSTERS OF THE MIDWAY" in the Windy City. If you're on the favorite, we're asking a 4-8 SU Houston team (who beat Jacksonville twice) to lay points when they have a defense ranked 30th overall & 31st against the run? They've NOT beaten a winning team to date. They have NOTHING to play for. They are missing key offensive weapons like none bigger than both WR Wil Fuller & RB David Johnson who made the the COVID-19 list. The list goes on & on. I know one thing, 7th-year vet & Oregon State product/WR Brandin Cooks will get sandwiched with deep-threat Fuller now out. I'm not going to over-react to the loss 2 the hands of the Lions. My bottom line says these same Bears have scored 45 points the past 5 QUARTERS so don't believe that HC Matt Nagy has lost the locker room. The catalyst is the Chicago offensive line opening holes for speedster out of Iowa State, RB David Montgomery (647 rushing yards, 291 receiving yards & 5 TD's) against a porous rushing "D". I can also see QB Nick Foles having successful play-action considering Montgomery's success on the ground. Yes, the Bears have lost 6 games in a row. But consider they've faced the L.A. Rams, Tennessee, Green Bay & have lost to 10-2 SU New Orleans in OT! Here's where we're playing this. Let's jet over to legendary Soldier Field to play the CHICAGO BEARS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 8* Ugly Pig Play Of The Week! Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -150 Arizona Cardinals Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (WIN) While Arizona QB Kyler Murray's (2,987 passing yards, 22/10 TD/INT ratio) numbers have gone down a bit, I'm not too sure if Giants' QB Daniel Jones (2,335 passing yards, 8/9 TD/INT ratio) is 100% & will think twice (about his hamstring) if he has the opportunity to run from the pocket. Don't get me wrong, I love what HC Joe Judge has done thus far in New York. However, 3 wins versus the NFC Least & 1 against Cincinnati doesn't mean they're a sure lock for the playoffs based on their upset win @ Seattle. The Cardinals are battle-tested & have played 5 playoff teams in their last 6 weeks. The knee-jerk reaction is to play the Giants since they're 7-1-1 ATS the last 9 times out. However, this line was adjusted accordingly. The power rankings still have Arizona @ 13th while the New York Giants a distant 23rd. My bottom line points to the analytics which trumpet out the "Football Giants" have come off a SU underdog win to go just 1-6-1 versus the number when up against a non-divisional team. The dagger for us looks @ Kyler Murray when facing opponents seeking revenge (Cardinals won @ this venue 27-21 last season). If Murray's in this situation AND coming off a SU loss, he's come back to go a perfect 5-0 ATS! Let's jet to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ to play the ARIZONA CARDINALS as my 9* NFL Earlybird Dependable! Thursday, December 10, 2020 New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5/-115 New England Patriots Rating: 8* Mike's Thursday Prime Mover (LOSS) Guys, I'm not falling for the Rams because of their better power rating, playing @ their home venue or having the best overall defense. Remember, Belichick & his Tea Men have already traveled to the great northwest & went to the wire with the Seahawks in a narrow 35-30 loss. New England has been solid (excepting San Francisco & Kansas City) versus winning clubs They've disposed of 8-4 SU Miami 21-11, 7-5 SU Baltimore 23-17 , 7-5 SU Las Vegas Raiders & mostly recently the Cardinals 20-17 who just dropped to 6-6 after that game. Belichick has his offense in a zone & blistering with confidence after going 4-1 SU (averaging close to 28 PPG) their past 5 games. Los Angeles has the better scoring defense (5th) but the Patriots aren't too far behind (7th). Even though QB Cam Newton is no bargain, Belichick has LEARNED how to use him to the team's advantage. Newton still owns decent numbers going 23-10 SU in December, 23-16 ATS as a road pup & 32-24 ATS as an underdog of 7 or less. What's really intriguing on "D" is the fact that the NE secondary knows Rams' QB Jared Goff's tendencies which were amplified in a 13-3 Super Bowl 53 loss a few seasons back. One BIG film room advantage for Belichick comes from breaking down the blueprints of the 49ers who swept the Rams this season. The Pats own this series since their 1st Super Bowl versus the rams going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS. It's tough to late the number with L.A. since Goff comes into this skirmish having turned the ball over 10 TIMES his past 5 outings. Analytics kick in as the Patriots play very well off the Chargers going 11-2 ATS immediately afterward. This suits us just fine as LA games have been decided by a TD or less 3 out of their last 4. Digging in much deeper, last Sunday's 45-0 blowout win was Belichick's 12th shutout & he now has won in 50 different venues since becoming a HC. My bottom line points out NE didn't travel back to the east after the Chargers' win but stayed @ U.C.L.A. for the week to make a smoother transition on a short week. The daggers for us have to be Belichick being a nifty 18-5 ATS as an underdog since 2010 & super-solid 15-6-1 versus the number when installed as a dog of 5 or more dating back 20 years. Analytics also stress New England holds the defensive edge in yards per point. L.A. chimes in 15th (opponents travel 14.4 YPP) as opposed to NE who ranks 5th @ 16.2 YPP. Let's go to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood to play the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 8* Thursday Prime Mover! Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 14 Record: 3-1 75% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 27-11 71%
 

  Mike Handzelek
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