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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 13 Analysis/Review/Notes/Power Rankings


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 12, 2021
   
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Sunday, December 05, 2021 Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Jets (NFL) 1:00 PM EST Philadelphia Eagles Premium Pick MyBookie Play Title: Mike's Sweet History Lesson Play Play Selected: Money Line: -220 Rating: 8* (WIN) Analysis: Yes, these teams are only separated by 1 game SU in the loss column with the Jets @ 3-8 & Eagles @ 5-7. It looks like Philly QB Jalen Hurts will be a game-time decision with a sprained ankle. If he can't go, let's insert Gardner Minshew in his slot behind center. We'll not cash out before the game for a no bet IF Hurts cannot go. Why? Because I feel the Philadelphia offensive line will dominate the line of scrimmage. The past 5 weeks have seen an Eagles team rush for an average of 215.6 YPG. They've now rushed over 200+ yards for 3 consecutive weeks. The last time that happened was in 1978 when RB Wilbert Montgomery & FB Mike Hogan were in the backfield for HC Dick Vermeil & QB Ron Jaworski. Philadelphia gets to face a Flyboys' defense (5th worst versus the run & have a depleted secondary) that's last in scoring defense @ 30.4 PPG. How has Philly fared versus losing teams on the road this season? They're a perfect 3-0 against the likes of Atlanta, Carolina & Detroit whom they've outscored 97-30. NY has played 1 losing team @ home & lost to Miami 24-17. The Jets' (0-5 ATS versus NFC foes) had 2 key pieces to the "D" go down with injuries versus the Texans. LB Quincy Williams & DT Sheldon Rankings remain questionable & are probably game-time decisions. On the flip side of the coin, we have QB Zach Wilson making his 2nd start off a knee injury for NY. In 7 starts, Wilson's has a poor 4/10 TD/INT ratio, his team averages 14 PPG & his 62.9 passer rating is last among starting QB's. Wilson will also be missing playmaker & leading rusher Michael Carter whose out with a high ankle sprain. Ty Johnson & Tevin Coleman are scheduled to fill in. Let's get into some key numbers! New York is a disappointing 6-20 SU when coming off a SU underdog win. If they ALSO take on an opponent coming off a SU loss, their SU record dips to 3-13. The Eagles have made the best of their pre-bye week games going a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS. My bottom line looks @ the history of this series. The Eagles hold a solid 11-0 SU all-time record versus the Flyboys that goes back to 1973 (24-23 Philly) when HC Mike McCormick roamed the sidelines with playmakers like QB Roman Gabriel, WR Harold "Hoagie" Carmichael & RB Tom Sullivan for Philadelphia. For the Jets' HC Weeb Ewbank, his offensive cogs were QB Al Woodall (Joe Namath was out with a knee injury) plus RB's Emerson Boozer & Mike Adamle. With an exhibition game, this is the 3rd game for Philly @ this venue this year. Let's go to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ to play the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for the "W" as my 8* Sweet History Lesson Play! Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) 1:00 PM EST Los Angeles Chargers Premium Pick YouWager Play Title: Mike's Fat & Happy Play Of The Week Play Selected: Point Spread: 3/-110 Rating: 8* (WIN) Analysis: The 7-4 SU Bengals have been in this situation twice this season. After both occasions, they've followed a double-digit divisional win with a 3-point win over Jacksonville (24-21) & a 3-point loss to the Jets (34-31). Now they've become that familiar "Fat & Happy" squad for a 3rd time after a convincing 41-10 victory over AFC North rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers. These are the same 2 teams that hooked up for the 1981 AFC Championship @ old Riverfront Stadium (27-7 Cincy). The -37 degrees wind chill coined that game as "The Freezer Bowl". These 2 did meet @ this venue in last year's season opener with the Chargers coming out on top 16-13. The urgency in this game has to be on the L.A. sidelines who barely hold on to the 7th & final AFC playoff berth @ 6-5 SU. While Bengals' QB Joe Burrow (2,835 passing yards & a 22/12 TD/INT ratio) has RB Joe Mixon (13 TD's) plus WR's Ja'Marr Chase (8 TD's) & Ty Higgins (3 TD's) as his playmakers, Chargers' QB Justin Herbert (3,230 passing yards & a 24/10 TD/INT ratio) has the equalizer with RB Austin Ekeler (14 TD's) plus WR's Keenan Allen (2 TD's) & Mike Williams (7 TD's). Herbert's been in a big share of close ones as L.A. has already been involved in 8 out of 11 one-score games. He also became the 2nd player in NFL history to throw 55+ TD passes in his first 2 seasons (Dan Marino holds the record with 68). My bottom line looks @ how Cincinnati has fared @ home versus non-divisional teams. In their 3 home non-divisional games this year, the Bengals beat Minnesota 27-24 in OT, lost to Green Bay 25-22 in OT & barely squeaked by Jacksonville 24-21. Let's get into some key analytics. When Joe Burrow comes off a SU win, he's followed it by going 2-6 ATS. When the Bengals are coming off a pair of wins-exact, they've gone a no-show 2-11 SU & ATS. If Cincy is playing a non-divisional game & is coming off consecutive wins after playing Pittsburgh, they've gone a perfect 0-5 SU & ATS the past 41 seasons. I love the fact that Herbert is the #1 QB in QBR & Burrow is 15th. Being efficient & getting points are usually an excellent sign. Let's go to Paul Brown Stadium to play the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 8* Fat & happy Play Of The Week! Notes: Another perfect week with Philadelphia & the L.A. Chargers both winning by double digits. Let's get right into my Power Rankings with percentage to make the playoffs after Week 13: 1) Arizona Cardinals 99% -- Look out! Murray & Hopkins are back & just in time to face the NFC West 2nd place entry, the Los Angeles Rams. 2) Green Bay Packers 99% -- We'll see how much Aaron Rodgers actually owns the Bears in Week 14. 3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 99% -- The Buffalo game looks intriguing especially with a revenge game with New Orleans on deck. 4) Kansas City Chiefs 88% -- Patrick Mahomes may not be flashy but Steve Spagnuolo's defense is @ its stingiest. 5) New England Patriots 99% -- Trending upward but the facts remain - they're 8-4 SU after taking on the easiest schedule to date. 6) Baltimore Ravens 86% -- They're 6 for now but unless Jackson snaps out of it, they're destined to plummet. 7) Dallas Cowboys 98% -- These next few weeks will determine if they'll give us their patented late-season fade or prove they're for real. 8) Buffalo Bills 63% -- This team is in make it or break it mode @ Tampa Bay & the @ New England in Week 16. 9) Los Angeles Rams 93% -- Pivotal game @ Arizona reveals if they're going to make the playoffs or not. A brutal schedule awaits. 10) Tennessee Titans 99% -- Julio jones is back & we'll see if that's enough to handle Jacksonville. 11) Los Angeles Chargers 80% -- What an up & down team this is! They have the Giants to warm up to before entertaining the Chiefs next week. 12) Indianapolis Colts 48% -- The way the AFC is going, a win over New England next week @ home really clears up their playoff chances. 13) Cincinnati Bengals 54% -- If Joe Burrow's thumb injury isn't a factor, the Bengals could edge San Francisco. 14) San Francisco 49ers 47% -- Their playoff chances are in Jimmy G's hands. Close Calls: Washington Football Team 57% -- Again, get a nickname! They've won 4 in a row & have 5 consecutive NFC East games to end the regular season. Denver Broncos 21% -- Their game with Cincinnati next week has real Wild Card tiebreaker implications attached. Cleveland Browns -- Mayfield is in put up or shut up mode after having 2 weeks to prepare for his 2nd meeting with Baltimore. Philadelphia Eagles 30% -- Just like the WFT, they'll end the season with 4 consecutive divisional tilts. Pittsburgh Steelers 14% -- With Tennessee & Kansas City on deck, their playoff chances aren't looking good right now. Miami Dolphins 6% -- They came out of nowhere to win 5 straight. They have the N.Y. Jets & New Orleans coming up off their bye week. They'll need to run the table & hope. My NFL Week 13 Record: 2-0 for 100% Last 6 Weeks NFL Record: 13-1 for a surreal 93% Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 NFL Overall Record: 24-10 for 71% Mike's NFL Record Last 2 Regular Seasons Combined (30 weeks): 56-22 for a career best: 72%
 


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