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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 13 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 9, 2020
   
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Tuesday, December 08, 2020 Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -9/-110 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 9* Mike's Tuesday Night Special (WIN) The Ravens come in @ 6-5 SU & are in must-win mode. Having a rested QB in Lamar Jackson speaks louder than just words here. The key fact to remember is he gets to face the 32nd (dead last) rushing defense in the NFL under the prime-time lights. Baltimore is a smash-mouth team & has the 2nd-best rushing offense in the league. If we look on the OTHER side of the ball, Dallas could be down 2 key OL in Zack Martin for the year (a man who cannot be replaced adequately) & Cam Irving whose doubtful. The Ravens' "D" may not be as dominant overall compared to last season. However, they're still a Top 10 defense who come into this losers of 3 straight. My bottom line says the Cowboys will find it difficult to stay motivated for 4 quarters knowing the winner of the NFC Least is either Washington or the New York Giants. Getting analytical, Lamar Jackson has produced in the regular season in December. Not only is he a near-perfect 8-1 SU but also a profitable 6-3 ATS. Digging in a little deep reveals he's a not too shabby 20-5 SU as chalk anywhere & is 6-1 SU off a SU loss. The first dagger for us has to be how Jackson fares against non-conference opponents. These teams only get to see him once every 4 years & do not have the book on him yet. He's a perfect 8-0 SU in this situation. The last dagger shows Dallas being a no-show 0-4 ATS versus AFC teams in games played after Sunday. I love Baltimore here since the Cowboys' defense isn't too opportunistic having just 4 INT's as opposed to yielding 24 TD passes this season. I'm ready! Let's go to M&T Bank Stadium in Inner Harbor to play the BALTIMORE RAVENS (buying to exactly - 6 1/2) as my 9* Tuesday Night Special! Monday, December 07, 2020 Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 0/-110 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 9* Mike's Season On The Line Attention Grabber (LOSS) The 5-6 SU 49ers last played the Bills just 4 years ago & were humbled 45-16 as 9-point dogs. Buffalo comes in sitting comfy-cozy 8-3 SU on top of the AFC East. They re-visit a place (due to Santa Clara County's contact sports ban) where they just visited 3 weeks ago AND were victimized by an Arizona "Hail Murray" salvo in a 32-30 loss. The situational edge CLEARLY sits on the San Francisco side with the upstate New Yorkers traveling 2,600 miles to Zona' while "in the back of their minds" having a chance to knock off the undefeated (11-0) Steelers immediately on deck in a prime-time Sunday night affair @ New Era Field. Some key playmakers are now BACK including WR Deebo Samuels & RB (leading-rusher) Raheem Mostert. Mostert faces a 24th-ranked rushing "D" this week. QB Nick Mullens remains @ the helm for a team that currently sits just 1 game behind wild card playoff contenders AND are coming off a bye just 2 weeks ago. Both of these have a Top 15 offense. However, its Cisco owning the better defense ranking 6th overall & a more-important 4th versus the pass. This will come in handy in neutralizing QB Josh Allen's 2 top targets in WR's Stefon Diggs & Cole Beasley. Allen's 3rd target in WR John Brown looks like he will be out for this contest. Throwing SU records out, my 32-team power ratings has the 49ers a notch HIGHER than the Bills. SF (8th) schedule has been tougher than Buffalo's (not in the top 10). Let's throw in some analytics. My bottom line says the Bills have not fared well versus teams UNDER .500 as witnessed by their 1-4 ATS record. They're also 0-3-1 versus the number on Monday night as well as 1-8 SU & 1-6-2 ATS in Monday non-divisional games. On the flip side, the 49ers come in with an impressive 13-3 ATS record on MNF including an 11-4 pointspread record versus the AFC overall. Buffalo may be 8-3 SU but have been out-gained by 6 of their last 9 opponents. They sit -1 YPG compared to SF's -48 YPG. Last week Bills' HC Sean McDermott had a coaching edge over the Chargers' Anthony Lynn (30-32 SU as a HC). He won't enjoy that big edge this week versus Kyle Shanahan. Keep a close watch on how Shanahan creates mismatches using play-action for Buffalo MLB Tremaine Edmunds. I don't like anything on Sunday in the NFL but there might be 2 Monday night plays or 1 for Tuesday. Here's where we need to play this one like a solid MLB line. Let's travel to the neutral site of State Farm Stadium in Glendale to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (buy to + 3 1/2--1 point higher than the opening 2 1/2) as my 9* Season On The Line Attention Grabber! NOTES: It was a rare mediocre week (1-1) as I threw too many potential plays out like Cleveland & New England since they had too many unclear intangibles. Nevertheless, I'll take my overall record where it stands & continue to move forward methodically down the season. Look for a better card & a much clearer picture in Week 14. Moving down the stretch separates teams much. The late, great John Facenda said it best, "Hopes that were high in the month of September can wilt & die in the month of November." Thanks to all loyal subscribers who enjoyed the course since Week 1! Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 24-10 71%
 

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