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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 11 Analysis/Review/Notes/Power Rankings

Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 11 Analysis/Review/Notes/Power Rankings

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 25, 2022
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Thursday, November 17, 2022 Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3/100 Tennessee Titans Rating: 8* Mike's Special Thursday Night Football Edition (WIN) Everyone's super-eager to hop all over the Packers' bandwagon virtue of their recent 31-28 OT victory (as 3 1/2-point dogs) over Dallas. There's many things that bug me about this one. We have a usually good Green Bay squad as a home favorite (15-5 ATS heading into this season in that role) that come s into Lambeau for the 4th time as HF carrying an 0-3 spread mark. Part of the reason why the Cheeseheads went on a 5-game SU losing skein was their dependence on the run (521 yards rushing the past 3 games). When looking @ Thursday night home teams the past 3 seasons, their ATS record is a full 10 games under .500! The Titans with a healthy RB Derrick Henry now take on an abysmal Green Bay run defense that ranks 27th in the per carry category. I've never played the "they're do" theory as Tennessee comes in riding a 7-game ATS winning streak. In their 9 games, Buffalo was the only team to get the best of them in Week 2. I'm not reading too much into the heavy trends that Green Bay does well on Thursdays but the Titans do not. Here's my bottom line. The Titans' defense ranks # 1 in the NFL in YPP (Yards Per Point) @ 19.2 compared to Green Bay's 14.8 YPP which ranks a distant 24th. Tennessee habitually stays in games as witnessed by their 8th ranking in scoring defense. They come in off 6 straight games with 3+ sacks for the 1st time since 81' when they were the Houston Oilers with standouts like Gregg Bingham, Robert Brazile, Vernon Perry, Daryl Hunt & Elvin Bethea. Remember, the Packers (when everything was clicking 2 years ago) literally embarrassed the Titans 40-14 @ this venue the last time these 2 hooked up. Besides revenge, let's look @ some strength of scheduling hard facts this season. The 4-6 SU Lambeau Leapers sit a current 2-4 SU versus winning teams. On the flip side, the 6-3 SU Nashville Cats are a perfect 6-0 SU versus losing teams. I'm also NOT buying the desperation mode theory. It didn't work too well for Cleveland or Denver last week. I'm cruising to legendary Lambeau Field to play the visiting TENNESSEE TITANS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 8 Star Special Thursday Night Football Edition! Sunday, November 20, 2022 New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3.5/-110 New York Jets Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Earlybird Show-Stopper Play (WIN off the buy) What? You're taking the Jets @ New England where total yards they just pounded them 54-13 last year? Yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying. I'm well aware that these J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets haven't won in Foxborough since Mark Sanchez outdueled Tom Brady 28-21 in the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs (13 straight coming in) & its been 14 years since they beat them in regular season. However, that was when the Teamen were a force with the Belichick-Brady combo tough to beat. Post-Brady, the Patriots have turned into onion dip turning into a mediocre 22-21 SU & are very beatable. In their 1st meeting during Week 8 (a 22-17 Pats win @ MetLife), the Jets compiled 387 total yards outgaining NE badly. Wilson throws 3 INT's & they were still in it to the end. Everyone draws on the negative of New York QB Zach Wilson's weak 4/5 TD/INT ratio. Hey, Pats' QB Mac Jones has a weaker 4/7 TD/INT ratio coming in also. NY HC Robert Saleh knows the deal where he needs to limit turnovers & neutralize New England's playmakers on both sides of the ball with RB Rhamondre Stevenson (618 rushing yards & 227 receiving yards-5 total TD's) & DE Matthew Judon (11 1/2 sacks). I believe this rendition of Gang Green is legit. They rank 7th in total yards yielded & 9th versus the pass. They've played the 3rd toughest schedule in the NFL thus far & have beaten Miami, Green Bay & Buffalo. Let's start crunching the numbers! The new "Sack Exchange" (led by Alabama product & DT Quinnen Williams with 7 sacks) tangles with a Patriots' offense that rank 26th in total yards & that's after facing the 25th toughest slate. NE has lost 2 of 3 against winning teams. The Fly Boys hold a + 0.5 to + 0.1 advantage in YPP margin. My bottom line says it's tough to ignore new regime HC Saleh is a take-me-back-to-the-window 6-1 ATS versus opponents coming in with a SU & ATS win. They take on a NE squad that currently sit just 2-7-1 spreadwise if home off a bye week AND versus a foe off a SU win. NY has traveled well (4-0 ATS but a perfect 3-0 SU in the dog role). Here's the kicker! HC Belichick is superb off the bye going 15-7 SU. Digging in a little deeper reveals quite a different animal. His teams are also a no-show-@-the-window 1-10-1 versus the number @ home his last 12 with 2 weeks rest. Here's the right place. Let's confidently go to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough to play the NEW YORK JETS ( buying to + 7 1/2) as my 9 Star NFL Earlybird Show-Stopper Play! Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3/-105 Houston Texans Rating: 9* Mike's Ugly Pig Play Of The Week (LOSS) Even though the Commies are coming in winners of 4 of 5 SU, how do you get up for this one after just manhandling the only unbeaten team that was left in the NFL? Working on a short week after finishing off a division rival has certainly left this HC Ron Rivera's charges fat & happy. I found out in past circumstances that this team often plays to the level of competition. They've previously done this 2 weeks ago when they had to pull one out of the fire late @ Indianapolis 17-16. Yes, HC Lovie Smith & his Texans have a fading & NFL worst 1-7-1 SU. But they've also showed they can play a physical Tennessee team within one score 17-10 @ this venue. Houston will certainly get RB Dameon Pierce his touches. I feel QB Davis Mills can protect the football & put some scores on the board @ this venue where he's thrown 7 TD passes in 4 games thus far. He also has an added advantage since both WR's Brandin cooks & Nico Collins are now healthy. Digging in much deeper reveals that playing on teams who are off a double-digit upset have resulted in an under 40% winning proposition the past 13 seasons. My bottom line says these Texans playing 5-5 SU Washington will feel like a walk in the park compared to their last 3 opponents who had a combined 21-6 SU record. Other numbers indicate the Commies are just 1-4 ATS after a Monday night divisional game while Houston has gone a profitable 4-1 versus the number in their 2nd of back-to-back non-conference games. The last meeting in this series went to a +3 home dog (Washington) by a 23-21 count. While the Texans are weak versus the run defensively, the Commanders have yielded to opposing QB's a strong 16-3 TD/INT ratio. Let's go to NRG Stadium in Texas to play the HOUSTON TEXANS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 9 Star Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) - 4:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3/-120 Las Vegas Raiders Rating: 9* Mike's AFC West Showdowner (WIN) It may look like the Raiders are down & out @ a dismal 2-7 SU entering this matchup. Las Vegas is protecting QB Derek Carr (13/5 TD/INT ratio-sacked 21 times) better than 3-6 SU Denver is keeping their QB upright as in Russell Wilson (7/5 TD/INT ratio-sacked 30 times). Silver N' Black DE Maxx Crosby (4th season out of Eastern Michigan) is the high sack man of both of these defenses with 7. For this one, I don't trust Broncos' HC Nathaniel Hackett laying points just as I would LV skipper Josh McDaniels. It's tough to back a team like the Orange N' Blue when their O-Line let their QB get hit 18 times against Tennessee in Week 10. Las Vegas has the best runner in Josh Jacobs (821 yards rushing, 200 yards receiving, 7 total TD's) & WR Davante Adams (57 catches for 784 yards & 8 TD's). Even though these Raiders haven't had too many teams' number, against Denver they've won 5 straight, 7 out of their last 8 & that includes meeting 1 by a 32-23 count this season in Nevada. McDaniels' squad have also had the AFC West competition's number the past 3 seasons covering @ a 62% clip. On the flip side, Hackett's club have gone a startling 5-15 SU (25%) during that same span. The Broncos also come in a perfect 0-6 spreadwise as AFC chalk of 5 or less. Their offensive output of 14.6 PPG (worst in the NFL) is close to a FG worse than Houston's. My bottom line says it's tough to ignore the Black Eye Patches being 9-1 ATS the last 10 of this series & Denver being a putrid 1-6 versus the number after playing physical Titans skirmishes. One thing is for sure! We'll know soon if Mark Davis regrets getting rid of Rich Bisaccia after going 10-7 & making the playoffs last season. We're ready to go to Empower Field @ Mile High to play the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (buying to + 7 1/2) with some pasta sprinkled on the ML as my 9 Star AFC West Showdowner! Monday, November 21, 2022 San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +8/-110 Arizona Cardinals Rating: 8* Mike's International Series Go-Getter Play (LOSS) This will be the 5th regular season game in Mexico. The International Series actually started in 1926 (AFL's New York Yankees with Red Grange beat the LA Wildcats 28-0 @ Maple Leaf Stadium in Toronto) - 1 year after the Dick Rauch's Pottsville Maroons (played @ Minersville Park) actually won the NFL over the Chicago Cardinals despite Commissioner Joe Carr's absurd ruling. For this one, this will be the 2nd meeting here with Zona' besting SF by a 31-14 count in 05'. The SU winner is pretty simple. Cards' are 4-0 if holding opponents under 100 yards rushing & 0-6 if not. However, we're going the spreadwise route where the value & stronger numbers dictate. Why? Because SF HC Kyle Shanahan doesn't perform well as a large favorite. His teams' are typically ruling the stat sheets yet not when it comes to the pointspread. In fact, if you look @ them in the -10 or larger price range the last 7, they've turned in a horrible 1-5-1 ATS result. What I like about this game is Arizona backup Colt McCoy (he's a perfect 3-0 in NFC West road games going back to last year) whose playing with pride & poise as witnessed in last Sunday's 27-17 underdog win over the LA Rams. His quick releases are monumental to neutralizing the 49ers' pass rush. If 1st-stringer is inserted back in the lineup, he'll be properly motivated after how well he saw McCoy play last weekend. Remember, the Cardinals have won SU 11 out of their last 14 games away from home since last season (best in NFL). What intrigues me is 4-6 SU Arizona has become habitually slighted on the road after examining the recent handicapping mosaics & that certainly looks like the case here. Yes, the 5-4 SU 49ers (only played the 28th-toughest schedule thus far) have the better scoring defense (5th compared to 30th). But scoring offense is quite a different story with Zona' holding the edge @ 13th with SF 18th. With the Cisco Kids losing both meetings last season 17-10 in Zona' & 31-17 @ home, HC Kliff Kingsbury must have a formula. In Kingsbury's 6 career meetings in this series, Arizona's looked like Go-Getters going 4-1-1 versus the number with no loss by more than 1 score. Crunching other numbers reveal SF being 3-8-1 ATS as divisional chalk while the Cards are a super-solid 9-2 as conference dogs of 4 or more. My bottom line says I'm looking for WR's DeAndre Hopkins & Rondell Moore to turn in "A" games in their usual road outputs. I further feel asking the 49ers (who lost SU to the Falcons on the road earlier) for 5 blowouts in 10 tries is steep considering they will have Miami & Tampa Bay coming up inside their immediate 3-game homestand. Let's travel south to Estadio Azteca in the high altitude of Mexico City (considerably higher than Denver) to play the ARIZONA CARDINALS (buying to + 11 1/2) as my 8 Star International Series Go-Getter Play! NOTE: If Colt McCoy is hurt & 3rd-stringer Trace McSorley starts, this play is a NO BET. NOTES/POWER RANKINGS: It was a decent 3-2 but not having Kyler Murray back hurt our chances Monday. However, the Titans over Green Bay on Thursday & the Las Vegas ML Dog win grabs the gusto. Here's my Power Rankings after Week 11: 1) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -- Still #1 but won't stay that way if offensive line & defensive line issues aren't rectified. Facing the easiest schedule (32nd) has helped. December tests include 3 winning teams in Tennessee next week, the NY Giants & the Dallas Cowboys. 2) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -- As long as QB Patrick Mahomes is on & his offense stays remotely intact, they're the best the AFC offers. After the Rams Sunday, they embark on a 3-game road trip traveling to Cincinnati, Denver & Houston. 3) MINNESOTA VIKINGS -- Yes, they're winning with smoke & mirrors but still winning. Until someone can step up like the Cowboys did, they're a shaky 3rd. 4) BUFFALO BILLS -- Talentwise they are the cream of the crop when healthy. However, some pieces are still not working or out. Taking on the 3rd-toughest schedule has taken its toll. Facing 3 straight AFC East teams should tell a lot versus New England, NY Jets & then Miami. 5) MIAMI DOLPHINS -- The AFC East leaders are behind Buffalo here but things can change IF they sweep the Bills with a road win in December. We'll certainly know more next week versus San Francisco's #1 defense. 6) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -- If Jimmy Garoppolo can learn thrive with the offense he's given, they'll be pickin' for gold in February. 7) BALTIMORE RAVENS -- They take that insane NFL-high 10-game streak of holding a double-digit lead in all games thus far. Could Jacksonville, Denver & Pittsburgh are fall victims to this unreal stat? The status of QB Lamar Jackson will dictate their success. 8) DALLAS COWBOYS -- They're riding a huge high after basting Minnesota 40-3. One thing is for sure. The Giants won't be impressed when they come to Arlington on Thanksgiving. 9) TENNESSEE TITANS -- Their offensive output remains a mystery. As long as Derrick Henry (actually threw a TD pass last week) can stay healthy & Tannehill can have a few of those 320-yard net passing days, they can compete in a highly-competitive AFC. We'll know more after their next 2 versus Cincinnati & Philadelphia. 10) CINCINNATI BENGALS -- Everyone is anticipating the return of WR Ja'Marr Chase. However, not having RB Joe Mixon can cause problems for Joe Burrow using play-action. Tennessee has 30 sacks entering this week & Cincy has yielded 35. 11) NEW YORK GIANTS -- They've faded out of my Top 10 & it won't get any easier in Dallas. They have a 4-game NFC East gauntlet where they then play Washington @ home, Philadelphia @ home & then Washington on the road. The passing game must get on track for them to survive. 12) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -- Tom Brady & Co. are tied for 2nd in the NFL for least turnovers with 9 & their offensive line is #1 in the NFL in sacks yielded. I wish this was next week when they would have to face Cleveland with QB Deshaun Watson's scheduled to return. Nevertheless, this team is 8th in net YPG turning in a 30.5. 13) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -- Intriguing game @ Minny on a short week for a team teetering playoff chances. Will Buffalo being on deck distract? 14) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -- Hopefully Pete Carroll used the bye week wisely. The immediate 3-game stretch versus the Raiders, Rams & Panthers are must wins before SF & KC arrive later. They have to hold serve & get the "W's" @ Lumen Field. JUST MISSED: New York Jets, Washington Commanders & Los Angeles Chargers Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Overall Record: 17-16 for a climbing 52%

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