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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 11 Analysis/Review/Notes/Power Rankings


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 24, 2021
   
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Sunday, November 21, 2021 Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (NFL) 1:00 PM EST Minnesota Vikings Premium Pick MyBookie Play Title: Mike's NFC North Showdowner Play Play Selected: Point Spread: 1.5/-110 Rating: 9* (WIN) Analysis: The lines-makers are PANICKING! They made the wrong team favored. The mushes & TV personalities can knock Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins as much as they want. However, he's a very respectable 3-3-1 versus Green Bay since he came over from Washington! The Purple People Eaters put up 62 points on the Pack in their 2 divisional battles last year (went 1-1 SU & ATS--losing @ home 43-34 in Week 1 & winning @ GB 28-22 in Week 7). What many fail to emphasize is the BIG void on offense that's now present without RB Aaron Jones. Yes, QB Aaron Rodgers still has RB A.J. Dillon & WR's Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard & Marquez Valdes-Scantling. However, the Packers record of 8-2 SU owns 1 impressive win & that was against Arizona. With Rodgers behind center, the Cheeseheads rank 20th on offense (that was WITH Jones) & have averaged a pedestrian 22 PPG over his last 4 starts. I feel the Vikings have been more un-lucky than mediocre thus far. They very easily can be 7-2 with a puzzling 34-33 loss @ Arizona along with a 27-24 OT loss @ Cincinnati in Week 1 & another OT loss @ Baltimore 34-31 in Week 9. My bottom line has to begin with stressing protection & pressure. Minnesota does BOTH very well. They're O-Line is tied for an NFL best in sacks yielded with 12 (with TB) & tied for 1st (with Cleveland) in sacks registered in the NFL with 29! Zimmer's defensive blueprints to get to Rodgers were already laid by the Seattle "D" last week. CB Patrick Peterson is a plus if he's back @ 100%. On the flip side, the key is patience on the part of the Vikes offense. GB DC Joe Barry's 3-4 scheme is set up to stop the quick, long strike. Minny OC Klint Kubiak has the blueprints to counter this with run-heavy sets featuring RB Dalvin Cook that produced BIG dividends when his offense ran it 34 times for 173 yards in just 7 offensive drives @ Lambeau. Incorporating play-making WR's Justin Jefferson & Adam Thielen will be vital for the outright win. This season, the Packers' rushing defense is yielding a high 4.6 YPR which isn't too far from Minny's 4.4 YPR. The Vikings offense is in the Top 7 overall & Top 9 in rushing. HC Mike Zimmer has MORE than held his own with the Pack since coming to Minneapolis going 6-7-1. But in his coaching career as a home underdog, he's an impressive 10-4 versus the number. The dagger for us HAS to be his perfect 4-0 ATS number in this same situation in divisional games. Since Minny has lost all 5 games by a total of 18 points, they've clearly been in EVERY game they did lose. I had a line & a number we're playing this at. Forget juice, value & what tabloids have been preaching. The bottom line is to win by 59% or more when playing games like this. Let's go to U.S. Bank Stadium to play the MINNESOTA VIKINGS (buying to + 4 1/2 with a little pasta on the ML) as my 9* NFC North Showdowner Play! San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) 1:00 PM EST San Francisco 49ers Premium Pick YouWager Play Title: Mike's NFL Deception Play Play Selected: Money Line: -275 Rating: 9* (WIN) Analysis: Anyone can knock 49ers' HC Kyle Shanahan all they want. I see a coach that can beat losing teams. He's 3-1 SU overall against them & a perfect 3-0 SU out of their division. Asking HC Urban Meyer & his Jaguars to win 3 in a row @ home is kind of far-fetched since red-hot 7-4 New England hasn't done it. Even though he's 2-2 SU his past 4, rookie QB Trevor Lawrence is still a work in progress that was shown by a his late lost fumble & an inaccurate 16-for-35 for 162 passing yards last week. Since Week 2, he's committed 13 turnovers with a shaky 5/6 TD/INT ratio. In his last 3 games, he's thrown 1 TD pass total, has 2 fumbles with 1 lost & his offense is averaging 11 PPG. OC Darrell Bevell & Passing Game Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are far from turning the corner with Lawrence whose offense is a NFL-worst 32nd in an important analytical category like Yards Per Point & has punted 42 times (27th in the league). Being realistic, the Jags' offense will struggle until it gets back their play-making RB's in James Robinson & Travis Etienne. On the flip side, the Gold Rushers may be 4-5 SU, but still have an NFC Top 7 playoff shot since their schedule is light down the stretch with these Jags, Cincinnati & Houston upcoming. They're a seasoned team that's already played Arizona twice & lost a narrow 30-28 game with Green Bay. After their MNF game with L.A., SF is still a Top 10 team both in total offense & defense. The toughest game they have left is @ the Rams in their Week 18 regular season finale. Crunching the numbers show Jacksonville has not responded well in the non-divisional home dog role going 2-8 ATS. 49ers' QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets a boost with his 2nd-favorite target back in TE George Kittle. My bottom line points out a losing proposition when the Jags take on the NFC West. They've covered 1 game ATS versus that the division the last 15 tries. This fits nicely since SF is on a 4-0 ATS run in non-conference road affairs. November is a month were teams start to change. This is extremely evident when looking @ home dogs of 3 1/2 or more the last 10 weeks of the season. These so-called live home dogs (as coined by the mushes & TV personalities) have been a dormant & ticket-ripping 36.3%. Yes, Jax. Edge Rusher/DE/OLB & lead-sacker Josh Allen (5.5 sacks) has been hot for DC Joe Cullen's 4-3 scheme. However, he'll have his hands full with elite OT Trent Williams. Remember, the Jags are just 28th in sacks in the NFL. Because the line still looks slightly inflated & SF is off a shorter week, we're going to TIAA Bank Field to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for the "W" as my 9 Star Deception Play! Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) 8:20 PM EST Los Angeles Chargers Premium Pick MyBookie Play Title: Mike's 10 Star Tactical Mismatch Of The Week Play Selected: Point Spread: -5/-110 Rating: 10* (WIN off the BUY) Analysis: The Chargers may not look like too much @ 5-4 SU but nobody seems to dig in deeper. If they did, they'd find a team that's taken on the 5th-toughest schedule that includes, Dallas, KC, Baltimore & NE. Ex-defensive guru of the Rams Brandon Staley has taken over the reigns for the Chargers & has brought a different type of philosophy when calling defenses. Gus Bradley (now DC @ Las Vegas) was big on a ZONE-heavy "D" that featured a single-high safety. Staley & DC Renaldo Hill now implement a MAN-heavy defense that has 2 high safeties. Considering their tough strength of schedule, L.A. is ranked 4th in the NFL in pass defense. They now face a hobbling Pittsburgh squad (whose faced the 6th-easiest schedule thus far but just 2-6 ATS their last 8) that ranks just 24th in total offense @ 25th in Yards Per Point. That's before all the injuries! It's hard enough to execute an offense without a decent QB (What do they think Mason Rudolph provides?) yet alone your offensive playmakers. Among those playing hurt or out are LG Kevin Dotson (out, high ankle sprain), QB Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder injury), WR Chase Claypool (toe injury), RG B.J. Finney (back injury), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (out, shoulder injury) & RT Trai Turner (ankle injury) . On the flip side of the ball, it's scary too! The HEART & SOUL of Steel Town as in WLB T.J. Watt (leads team & 2nd in NFL in sacks with 12.5, just .5 behind Cleveland's Myles Garrett) is out with a hip injury. Besides DE Isaiahh Loudermilk being out with a groin injury, key secondary cog FS Minkah Fitzpatrick was added to the IR/COVID 19 for an unknown period. He's a bigger catalyst of which his void cannot be filled. DC Keith Butler pressure 3-4 defensive scheme can't be effective on a consistent basis without Watt & Fitzpatrick. When the Lions run the ball for 229 yards against you (they did avg. 93 RPG), red flags resound. My bottom line stresses the fact that not only are the Chargers going to stack the box to neutralize RB Najee Harris, but OC Joe Lombardi should get excellent run-pass option looks featuring his 6'6" QB Justin Herbert (who should have a day) making connections to WR's Keenan Allen & Mike Williams along with the dangerous RB Austin Ekeler who leads the team with 9 total TD's (5 rushing). I don't think the Black N' Gold can match the Bolts' firepower (a Top 10 offense) that's averaged a shade under 30 PPG over their last 4 home games. Pittsburgh could very easily be 4-5 SU right now if it wasn't for a inept Detroit team & a referee-aided call versus Chicago. Let's dissect the 23 ties that transpired over the past 41 seasons. Analytics stress teams coming off an OT tie (Pitt) come back to go 13-29 SU the following week & a ticket-ripping 8-13 ATS off an ATS loss. Forget past underdog trends favoring the Steelers, that's MORE for when teams are @ average strength. Let's go to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood to play the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (buying to - 2 1/2) as my 10 Star Tactical Mismatch Of The Week! NOTES: Forthcoming POWER RANKINGS: 1) Arizona Cardinals -- Kliff Kingsbury's squad has more than held their own without key pieces. 2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Should end strong but must step it up on the road. 3) Green Bay Packers -- Packers' injured secondary could be more of a concern than Rodger's similar to turf toe injury. 4) Los Angeles Rams -- We'll see how they handle Lambeau after their bye week. 5) Kansas City Chiefs -- Spagnuolo clearly has his pressure "D" getting into the backfield consistently. 6) New England Patriots -- Yes, 7-4 SU & playing lights out. However, they've played the easiest (32nd) schedule in the NFL thus far. 7) Dallas Cowboys -- Prescott must carry an offense where Elliott doesn't have that same pop. 8) Tennessee Titans -- We'll wait to see how much they miss Henry @ New England. 9) Baltimore Ravens -- It's an uphill climb for Lamar Jackson if the defensive secondary doesn't contain the long threats. 10) Buffalo Bills -- To live up to their billing, this team must respond against a depleted New Orleans squad. 11) Cincinnati Bengals -- Burrow needs to make a big step to be playoff bound. That means getting a previously eluded sweep of Pittsburgh. 12) Indianapolis Colts -- Jonathan Taylor's setting records but a win versus Tampa Bay is needed to build serious momentum for a playoff berth. 13) Los Angeles Chargers -- They need to get a sound special teams & late-game pressure "D" to seal games. You can't lose 17-point 4th-quarter leads on playing stupid football. 14) Minnesota Vikings -- Predicting the win over the Packers was nice for us. Minnesota now controls their own destiny after early but freaky & narrow losses. Near Misses: New Orleans Saints -- They're 5-5, desperate for a win & a late turn-around. A win on Thanksgiving & an easier schedule coming up (NY Jets, Miami, Carolina, Atlanta) could see them squeak into the playoffs. San Francisco 49ers -- Now 5-5, they can get to double-digits if they beat Minnesota here & beat the AFC squads before ending @ the Rams. Philadelphia Eagles -- They're rolling but need to be just as consistent versus their 5 upcoming divisional games. Cleveland Browns -- I'm not sure if it's bench Mayfield time or do they wait for the ground game & defense to dominate this week? Pittsburgh Steelers -- Back-to-backers against divisional rivals Cincinnati & Baltimore should tell us if the Black N' Gold make a serious run @ the playoffs. Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 NFL Regular Season Overall Record: 21-10 for 68% NFL Week 11 Record: 3-0 for 100% NFL Record Last 11: 10-1 for 91% NFL Regular Season Record L2 Years: 53-22 for a Career-High 71% Thanks to all my loyal subscribers, followers that include Vegas, Court House, N' West & Moc. guys who believe in my unique total process!
 

  Mike Handzelek
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